特朗普政府的贸易政策——基于美国国内贸易政治视角的分析

发布时间：2018-05-06 18:38

本文选题：美国 + 贸易政治　；参考：《国际展望》2017年06期

【摘要】：根据美国国内贸易政治的菱形博弈分析框架,美国贸易政策是总统、议会、利益集团和公众四方互动的结果。总结特朗普政府的贸易政策理念并分析其所面临的来自公众、议会和利益集团的约束,可以发现主张保护贸易的全球化受害者们是特朗普的民意基本盘,因此特朗普政府绝不会轻易放弃重要的贸易保护主张;而共和党人同时控制参众两院的现状以及支持贸易自由化的利益集团不断壮大的趋势,决定了特朗普政府不至于陷入贸易保护主义的泥潭。展望未来,特朗普政府的对华贸易政策将以结果为导向,凡是能促进"公平贸易"从而改善工人就业的手段都可能被采用。特朗普政府将中国列为其贸易保护主义的头号目标,正在并将继续以打击中国的"不公平贸易"为名,依据国内贸易法规或者采用"议题联动"的方式,试图在一定期限内实现具体目标。中国应在洞悉美国国内贸易政治的基础上,坚决维护自身正当权益,积极维护全球自由贸易。
[Abstract]:According to the rhombus game analysis framework of American domestic trade politics, American trade policy is the result of the interaction of the president, Congress, interest groups and the public. Summing up the Trump administration's trade policy philosophy and analyzing the constraints it faces from the public, parliament and interest groups, we can see that the victims of globalization who advocate trade protection are Trump's public opinion base. So the Trump administration will never easily give up important trade protections, while Republicans control both the current state of Congress and the growing trend of pro-trade liberalisation interests. Determined that the Trump administration would not be mired in protectionism. Looking ahead, the Trump administration's trade policy with China will be results-oriented, and any means of promoting "fair trade" to improve workers' employment could be used. The Trump administration has listed China as its top target for protectionism, and is and will continue to crack down on "unfair trade" in China, either under domestic trade laws or by adopting a "topic linkage" approach. Try to achieve specific goals within a certain period of time. China should firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and actively safeguard global free trade on the basis of insight into the domestic trade politics of the United States.
【作者单位】：苏州大学东吴商学院;
【分类号】：D771.2

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