美国介入领土争端的行为——基于模糊集定性比较分析的解释

发布时间：2019-04-13 12:32

【摘要】：对于为什么美国会采取军事手段介入他国领土争端,既有的研究尚未给出答案。作者以第三方国家干涉行为的"意愿"维度为解释框架,提出争端国双方同美国的实力对比、同盟关系、对外政策相似程度、经济相互依赖、政体相似性这5个因素影响美国对领土争端的干涉手段。借助这一框架,作者设计了5条假设,结合国际关系研究中的现有数据,运用模糊集定性比较分析方法,对这些假设进行验证。研究结果表明,干涉的目标国同美国经济相互依赖程度低、同盟关系水平低、政体相似度大以及干涉的支持国同美国实力差距大与经济相互依赖程度低是美国军事手段干涉领土争端的必要条件;充分条件组合分析得出了5条有效的解释路径,其中干涉目标国同美国实力差距大与对外政策相似度低这两个条件分别出现在这些解释路径中,表明它们对美国军事干涉领土争端有着重要影响,但干涉支持国同美国的同盟关系、对外政策相似程度以及政体相似程度的解释力度不大,美国也常常支持与其政体不相似或不存在同盟关系的国家,这一结果也表明有关第三方国家干涉的"选择效应"并没有在此得到验证。
[Abstract]:There is no answer to the question of why the United States will intervene in territorial disputes by military means. Based on the "will" dimension of third-party interference, the author puts forward the comparison of power between the two sides of the dispute and the United States, the alliance relationship, the similarity of foreign policy, and the interdependence of the economy. The similarity of polity affects the means of American intervention in territorial disputes. With the help of this framework, the author designs five hypotheses. Combined with the existing data in the study of international relations, the author validates these hypotheses by using the qualitative comparative analysis method of fuzzy sets. The results show that the target countries of interference have a low degree of interdependence with the United States economy, and the level of alliance relationship is low. It is necessary for the United States to intervene in territorial disputes by means of military means, such as the large similarity of polity and the large gap of power between the supporting countries and the United States and the low degree of economic interdependence. The sufficient condition combination analysis obtains five effective explanation paths, in which the two conditions of the interference target country and the United States power gap and the low similarity of foreign policy appear in these interpretation paths, respectively. It shows that they have an important impact on the territorial dispute of the United States military intervention, but that interference in the alliance relationship between the supporting countries and the United States, the degree of similarity in foreign policy and the degree of similarity in the political system, are not interpreted with great intensity, The United States also often supports countries that are not similar to their polity or do not have alliances, a result that also suggests that the "selective effect" of third-party intervention has not been validated here.
【作者单位】：南开大学周恩来政府管理学院;
【基金】：教育部青年基金项目“美国海外军事干涉行为与国际秩序演变研究”(项目编号:12YJCGJW007)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D771.2

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