俄罗斯人口老龄化对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-04-20 23:25

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 俄罗斯　；参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化问题已经受到越来越多国家和地区的关注,无论是政府部门,还是民间组织都在尽力应对这一棘手的问题。20世纪人口老龄化问题只是发达国家需要解决的问题,21世纪,人口老龄化则是世界上大多数国家都必须而对的问题。随着社会经济的发展,人口发展已经出现低生育率、低死亡率、低增长率以及长寿命的现象,这当然会导致人口老龄化问题的出现。近年来随着俄罗斯经济陷入低谷,人口老龄化问题变得更加严重。首先,随着年龄的增长,老年人逐渐失去劳动能力,从而直接影响劳动力的有效供给;当老年人逐步失去创造价值的能力,身体机能也会不断下降,他们会变成纯粹的消费者,政府需要提供更多的医疗资源,这会间接地减少其它项目的投资金额。所以,劳动力的缺乏会影响到一个国家的经济发展,人口问题和经济问题有着千丝万缕的联系。在研究人口老龄化问题之前,第二章对人口学和人口因素与经济增长的关系进行研究,这些知识的梳理有助于于后面分析人口老龄化和经济的关系问题。19-20世纪一些人口学家提出人口发展阶段的学说。按照它们定义,我们21世纪的社会已经到了发展的后部阶段:低生育率和低死亡率的阶段。因为科学和医疗的进步提高,死亡率不断下降,加上生育率的下降,这些因素共同作用引发人口老龄化问题。所以,这些学说模型有了更加现实的意义。第三章研究俄罗斯当前年龄结构的状况。此研究基于俄罗斯统计局的报告和数据。俄罗斯人的平均年龄为39.1岁,和其它国家相比处于中间的位置。排在前而的是欧洲国家,后面的是非洲国家,平均年龄分为42.5岁和18.2岁。生育率商的国家就是年轻国家,其劳动力供给非常充足。俄罗斯经历了高生育率高死亡率的时代,目前的现状给我们提出新的挑战,未来的人口发展的方向取决于现在的政策决定。第四章是选择合适的模型、设定合理变量、利用数据,对人口老龄化与经济增长的关系进行研究。目前的老龄化问题似乎不是非常急迫,但是我们要着眼于未来,进行有效的顶测分析,到2100年俄罗斯人口状况会出现什么样的情况,会发生什么问题,这些和哪些因素有关?我们需要未雨绸缪,提前布局。通过计量模型进行老年人口抚养比和按购买力计算的人均GDP之间的研究,它们之间是否有因果关系以及影响有多大。第五章介绍人口老龄化的应对政策与结论。因为老龄化对经济增长有负影响,那么我们非常有必要提出一些应对人口老龄化的措施。目前,俄罗斯有鼓励生育的政策,2007年开始实施了"母亲基金"项目,生育第二个及更多孩子的家庭就可以申请,每生第二个(或第三个、第四个等等)孩子可以获得鼓励奖金。从2008年开始,每年"母亲基金"的额度都在提高。但是,据2010年人口普查的结果显示,越来越多夫妻不愿意生第二胎。所以,目前的人口政策遇到了巨大的挑战。综合全文,目前世界的人口状况非常复杂,问题和矛盾很多。人口老龄化问题也是其中之一,从人口学角度来看,人口结构变化很大。这样的巨大变化一定会对社会和经济造成影响,那么,不管是政府,还是其它组织都要想办法来降低人口老龄化带来的不利影响,扩大老龄化带来的有利影响,只有这样才能保证国家经济的健康可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The problem of population aging has attracted more and more attention from countries and regions. Both government departments and civil organizations are trying to deal with this difficult problem. The problem of population aging in the.20 century is only a problem that the developed countries need to solve. In twenty-first Century, the aging of the population is the problem that most countries in the world must be right. With the development of the social economy, the population development has appeared low birth rate, low mortality, low growth rate and long life, which will certainly lead to the emergence of the problem of population aging. In recent years, with the Russian economy falling into a low valley, the problem of population aging becomes stricter. First, with the growth of age, the elderly gradually lose. The ability to work directly affects the effective supply of the labor force; when the elderly gradually lose the ability to create value, their physical function will continue to decline, they will become pure consumers, and the government needs to provide more medical resources, which will indirectly reduce the amount of investment in other projects. Therefore, the lack of labor will affect one The second chapters study the relationship between demography and population factors and economic growth before the problem of population aging. The combing of these knowledge will help to analyze the problems of population aging and economic relations in the.19-20 century. The family proposed the theory of the stage of population development. According to their definition, our society in twenty-first Century has reached the back stage of development: the stage of low fertility and low mortality. The progress of science and medical treatment, the declining mortality rate, and the decline of fertility, these factors lead to the problem of population aging. The third chapter studies the status of the Russian current age structure. This study is based on the Russian Statistical Office's report and data. The average age of the Russians is 39.1 years old and is in the middle position compared with other countries. The former is the European home, and the other is the African countries, the average age is divided. 42.5 and 18.2 years old. The country of fertility rate is a young country, its labor supply is very sufficient. Russia has experienced a high fertility rate and high mortality rate. The current situation gives us new challenges. The direction of future population development depends on the current policy decisions. The fourth chapter is to choose the right model and set reasonable variables. Using data to study the relationship between population aging and economic growth. It seems that the problem of aging is not very urgent, but we need to look at the future and carry out effective apex analysis. What will happen to the situation in Russia in 2100, what will happen, what are the factors that we need? We need it. The fifth chapter introduces the coping policies and conclusions of population aging. The fifth chapter introduces the coping policies and conclusions of population aging. Because aging has a negative impact on economic growth, we are very necessary. There are some measures to address the ageing of the population. At present, Russia has a policy of encouraging fertility. In 2007, the "mother fund" program was launched, and families with second and more children could apply, and second (or third, fourth, etc.) children could receive incentives per student. From 2008, "mother fund". However, according to the results of the 2010 census, more and more couples are reluctant to give birth to the second child. So the current population policy has encountered great challenges. The huge changes in the population structure. Such a great change will have an impact on the society and the economy. Then, both the government and other organizations should try to reduce the adverse effects brought by the aging of the population and expand the beneficial effects of aging. Only in this way can we ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the country's economy.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.512;F151.2

【相似文献】