人类迁移行为动力学的区域特征

发布时间：2019-05-19 19:00

【摘要】：以农村人口迁移为背景,建立了由离散动力学方程描写的人口迁移模型,研究迁移导致的人口分布的区域特征。利益驱动下的人类迁移行为往往是区域间相关因素交叉影响的结果,本文提出一个由人均收入、公共服务资源人均占有量和平均年龄构造的一个区域广义势。当某区域广义势高于各区域的平均时,该区域将有迁出者;那些广义势比平均广义势较低的区域将是这些迁出者的迁入区:向不同区域迁入的人则由依赖于两地间广义势之差的迁移概率决定。结果表明,净迁入(迁出)人口随时间指数衰减,迁出(迁入)区总人口、人均收入、公共服务资源人均占有量均呈现近似为指数方式衰减(“反指数”方式增长),最后达到三者相互匹配的相对稳定态。信息熵、人口分布与斑图演化均显示一个两极化的有序化过程。城市人口分为流动人口和稳定人口。流动人口主要来自于农村区域,是城市劳动力的重要组成部分。考虑中心城市劳动力身份在流动与稳定之间转化以及农村——中心城市人口互相迁移,同时借鉴统计动力学的若干思想,建立由一组微分方程所描写的人口迁移连续动力学模型,考察中心城市与周边农村区域间人口迁移的基本特征。模拟结果发现,迁移导致农村区域形成三种类型,净迁出区,先迁出后迁入区以及净迁入区域。需特别指出的是先迁出后迁入区域中,发育成长,最后形成了人口规模接近原中心城市的第二中心城市,通过分析回迁区域人口密度变化以及中心城市稳定人口、流动人口、总人口的密度演化,解释了出现第二中心城市的成因。实证结果说明了模拟结果的现实对应。
[Abstract]:Based on the background of rural population migration, a population migration model described by discrete dynamic equation is established to study the regional characteristics of population distribution caused by migration. Human migration behavior driven by interests is often the result of the cross-influence of interregional related factors. In this paper, a regional broad potential constructed by per capita income, per capita share of public service resources and average age is proposed. When the broad meaning of a region is higher than the average of each region, there will be emigrants in that region. Those regions with lower generalized potential ratio will be the moving areas of these emigrants: those who move to different regions will be determined by the probability of migration depending on the difference of the broad potential between the two places. The results show that the net inflow (emigration) population decays with the time index, the total population, per capita income and the per capita share of public service resources show similar exponential decay ("anti-exponential" growth). Finally, the relative stable state of the three matched with each other is achieved. Information entropy, population distribution and pattern evolution all show an ordered process of polarization. The urban population is divided into floating population and stable population. Floating population mainly comes from rural areas and is an important part of urban labor force. Considering the transformation of labor force identity between mobility and stability in central cities and the migration of rural-central urban population to each other, and drawing lessons from some ideas of statistical dynamics, A continuous dynamic model of population migration described by a set of differential equations is established to investigate the basic characteristics of population migration between central cities and surrounding rural areas. The simulation results show that the migration leads to the formation of three types of rural areas, namely, the net migration area, the first moving out area, then the moving area and the net moving area. It should be pointed out in particular that the population size of the second central city, which is close to the original central city, has been formed by first moving out and then moving into the region, and finally forming the second central city with a population size close to the original central city. Through the analysis of the change of population density in the relocation area and the stable population and floating population of the central city, The density evolution of the total population explains the causes of the emergence of the second central city. The empirical results show the realistic correspondence of the simulation results.
【学位授予单位】：宁夏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C922

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