Project Risk Analysis of Pro-Poor Rural Tourism Development

发布时间：2024-01-29 19:21

　　乡村旅游振兴扶贫项目已被认定为拥有明显扶贫效益的方法之一。然而,乡村旅游振兴扶贫项目中的多类风险因素对广大范围的实施带来种种困难,使得项目不能顺利完成。各地政府和组织须得挪用更多的资源来弥补因风险因素导致的损失和管理失策,从而浪费有限的资源。本论文设想要通过层次分析法和模糊综合评价识别中国乡村旅游振兴扶贫项目里存在的风险因素并且找出这些风险因素的重要性排序以及风险的影响性级别,最终获得乡村旅游振兴扶贫项目的综合风险级别。这论文里的数据都是来自旅游管理和项目管理领域里的专家们。通过专家们的数据分析,风险类别总共有九种,而“市场“风险被视为首位。“市场”风险类别下的风险因素包括旅客量不足、市场定位判断错误和营销策略不到位。分析结果显示出中国乡村旅游振兴扶贫项目属于高风险级别。关键利益相关者们如各地政府、集团和投资者们必须懂得分配和善用资源方可对症下药,使得中国乡村旅游振兴扶贫项目可以顺利完成并获得更大的成就。

【文章页数】：140 页

【学位级别】：硕士

【文章目录】：
Acknowledgement
Abstract
摘要
Chapter 1: Introduction
    1.1 Research Background
    1.2 Significance of the study
        1.2.1 Theoretical significance
        1.2.2 Practical Significance
    1.3 Research Questions
Chapter 2: Literature Review
    2.1 Project Risk Management
        2.1.1 Risk Management Planning
        2.1.2 Risk Identification
        2.1.3 Risk Analysis
        2.1.4 Risk Response Planning
        2.1.5 Risk Monitoring and Control
    2.2 Risks of Pro-Poor Tourism Projects
        2.2.1 Overview of Risks in Tourism Industry
        2.2.2 Pro-Poor Tourism
        2.2.3 Example of Risks of Pro-Poor Tourism Projects Found in Literatures
    2.3 Research Gap
Chapter 3: Research Methods
    3.1 Research Design
    3.2 Methodology
        3.2.1 Analytical hierarchical process (AHP)
        3.2.2 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE)
        3.2.3 Delphi survey
    3.3 Data collection methods
        3.3.1 Reviewing the literature (secondary data)
        3.3.2 Interview (primary data)
        3.3.3 Delphi survey (primary data)
        3.3.4 Focus group (primary data)
    3.4 Background of Experts Involved in Research
    3.5 Timeline of Data Collection
Chapter 4: Research Findings
    4.1 Results
        4.1.1 Results of Survey 01 and Survey 02
        4.1.2 Results of Survey 03
        4.1.3 Results of Survev 04
        4.1.4 Results of Focus Group
Chapter 5: Discussion
    5.1 Top Most Important Risk Category: Market
        5.1.1 Insufficient tourists
        5.1.2 Wrong judgement in market direction
        5.1.3 Mistargeted promotional strategy
    5.2 Second Most Important Risk Category: Finance
        5.2.1 Short on capital
        5.2.2 Financial support/source of fund/unstable fund
        5.2.3 Cost management
    5.3 Third Most Important Risk Category: Management/Operation
        5.3.1 Management capability/operation and maintenance
        5.3.2 Internal dispute
        5.3.3 Safety hazard
    5.4 Other Notable Risks
        5.4.1 Destruction of natural environment and ecosystem
        5.4.2 Sense of security
        5.4.3 National rural tourism policy/Instability in government support
        5.4.4 Relocation
        5.4.5 Unsustainable means of living
        5.4.6 Loss of heritage
Chapter 6: Conclusion
    6.1 Contribution of the Thesis
    6.2 Limitations and Future Research
        6.2.1 Geographical Location
        6.2.2 National Policies and Rural Conditions
        6.2.3 Simplification of List of Risks
        6.2.4 Effect of Pandemic
        6.2.5 Proposed Usage of Analytical Network Process (ANP)
References
Appendices
    Appendix 01: Interview Questions
    Appendix 02: Microsoft EXCEL Spreadsheet used for Survey Data
    Appendix 03: MATLAB Code used for AHP Analysis
    Appendix 04: MATLAB Code used for FCE Analysis
    Appendix 05: Questionnaire Survey
        Survey 01: 'Survey for Experts on Risk of Rural Tourism Projects-1 of 4'
        Survey 02: 'Survey for Experts on Risk of Rural Tourism Projects-2 of 4'
        Survey 03: 'Survey for Experts on Risk of Rural Tourism Projects-3 of 4
        Survey 04: 'Survey for Experts on Risk of Rural Tourism Projects-4 of 4'
学位论文评阅及答辩情况表



本文编号：3888696