中国家庭储蓄率影响因素实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-08 00:18

本文选题：储蓄率　切入点：家庭储蓄　出处：《暨南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪以来,我国储蓄率居高不下的问题日益突出,高储蓄一直制约着中国宏观经济的持续稳健发展。几乎所有的研究以及数据表明,中国在经济发展过程中的储蓄率要高于世界上绝大多数国家和地区。高储蓄、低消费的特点导致中国的经济增长长期依靠投资和出口的拉动,这不仅增加了经济运行的内在不稳定性,而且还可能带来一系列深层次问题。中国的储蓄率特别是居民储蓄率近年来一直备受国内外的学术界所关注,高储蓄率的影响因素已经成为研究的热点问题。本文主要以生命周期理论、持久收入假说和预防性储蓄理论为基础,结合中国新兴经济体发展的现实背景下对我国家庭储蓄率的影响因素进行了理论分析,并使用2011年中国家庭金融调查与研究中心(CHFS)的微观家庭金融数据,通过稳健的最小二乘法(OLS)、可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)和分位数回归方法(Quantile Regression)以及相对重要性分析方法(RI)进行了相关的实证检验,最后提出了相关的政策建议。本文的主要结论如下：收入水平是影响中国家庭高储蓄率的重要因素；财富水平对中国家庭储蓄率存在显著的负向影响；社会保障对中国家庭储蓄率同样具有重要影响；人口年龄结构对中国家庭储蓄率的总体影响比较微弱。其中,通过相对重要性因素分析,本文发现,不确定性收入是影响我国家庭储蓄率最重要的因素。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, the problem of high savings rate in China has become increasingly prominent, and high savings has been restricting the sustained and steady development of China's macro-economy. Almost all the studies and data show that, The savings rate of China in the process of economic development is higher than that of most countries and regions in the world. The characteristics of high savings and low consumption have led China's economic growth to rely on investment and export for a long time. This not only increases the inherent instability of the economic operation, but also may bring about a series of deep-seated problems. China's savings rate, especially the resident savings rate, has been the focus of academic attention both at home and abroad in recent years. The influential factors of high savings rate have become a hot issue. This paper is based on life cycle theory, durable income hypothesis and precautionary saving theory. Combined with the development of China's emerging economies, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the factors affecting the household savings rate in China, and makes use of the micro-household finance data from the China Household Finance Survey and Research Center in 2011. Using the robust least square method, the feasible generalized least squares method (FGLS), the quantile regression method (Quantile regression) and the relative importance analysis method (RI), the empirical tests are carried out. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: income level is an important factor affecting Chinese household high savings rate, wealth level has a significant negative impact on Chinese household savings rate; Social security also has an important impact on the household savings rate in China, and the overall impact of the age structure of the population on the household savings rate in China is weak. Uncertain income is the most important factor affecting household savings rate in China.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.22

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