安徽省人口年龄结构特征及其社会经济影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 15:00

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 人口老龄化　；参考：《地理科学》2017年11期

【摘要】：根据人口普查和抽样调查的数据资料,采用对比分析、聚类分析等研究方法分析了1953~2015年安徽省人口年龄结构时间特征、空间特征。从时间上看,安徽省人口年龄结构不断演变,少儿人口数量从不断增加转变为不断减少,劳动适龄人口比重比较稳定,人口老龄化程度不断加深,总抚养系数和少年儿童抚养系数大幅度下降,老年抚养系数上升;从空间上看,人口年龄结构存在较大地区差异。安徽省人口年龄结构对社会经济发展的影响主要表现为:(1)人口老年化导致劳动生产率和经济增长速度的减缓,家庭规模小型化,并对社会养老保障和医疗卫生的挑战;(2)少儿人口的不断减少影响教育资源的配置;(3)人口年龄结构的区域差异进一步加剧了安徽区域发展的不平衡性。为了尽可能地减缓人口年龄结构演变对安徽省社会经济发展的不利影响,建议采取如下措施:一是充分利用"人口红利"机遇期,加快经济发展,不断促进社会进步;二是要加强引导,因地施策;三是完善社会保障制度,努力扩大社会保障制度的覆盖面,力争全覆盖,尽量减小城乡差距;四是大力发展养老产业,探索建立满足居家养老、社区养老、机构养老等多种方式需求的政府主导、政策扶持、社会参与、市场运作的社会化养老服务体系。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of population census and sampling survey, the temporal and spatial characteristics of population age structure in Anhui Province from 1953 to 2015 were analyzed by means of comparative analysis and cluster analysis. From the point of view of time, the age structure of the population in Anhui Province is constantly evolving, the number of children's population is changing from increasing to decreasing, the proportion of the working-age population is relatively stable, and the degree of population aging is deepening. The total dependency coefficient and the dependency coefficient of children and adolescents decreased significantly, but the dependency coefficient of the elderly increased, and the age structure of the population varied greatly from the spatial point of view. The effect of population age structure on social and economic development in Anhui Province is mainly manifested in the following aspects: population aging results in a slowdown in labor productivity and economic growth, and a miniaturization of household size. The regional differences in the age structure of the population, which affect the allocation of educational resources, have further aggravated the imbalance of regional development in Anhui. In order to slow down as much as possible the negative impact of the evolution of the population age structure on the social and economic development of Anhui Province, the following measures should be taken: first, to make full use of the "demographic dividend" opportunity period, to speed up economic development, and to continuously promote social progress; The second is to strengthen guidance, because the local policy; third, to improve the social security system, strive to expand the coverage of the social security system, strive to cover all, reduce the gap between urban and rural areas as far as possible; fourth, vigorously develop the pension industry, explore the establishment of a family pension, The socialized old-age service system of community old-age care, institutional old-age support, social participation, market operation and other forms of government leading, policy support, social participation, and so on.
【作者单位】：安徽职业技术学院财经商贸学院;
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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