基于多智能体的城市群政府合作建模与仿真——嵌入并反馈于一个异构性社会网络

发布时间：2018-03-06 11:33

本文选题：城市群政府合作　切入点：多智能体模拟　出处：《管理科学学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以社会网络视阈下的城市群政府合作过程中的多期进化博弈为例,通过概念模型、数学模型和计算机模型的完整建模过程,在微观主体互动层面建立一个考虑个体成本收益差异的非对称进化博弈系统(并同时考虑全体博弈互动和部分博弈互动的交互),在宏观社会结构层面建立一个实现节点之间连接概率定制化的异构性社会网络模型(且同时考虑全局信息交互和局部信息交互的更替),并通过多智能体系统(特别是交互意愿变量的引入)实现了微观互动(博弈行为)和宏观涌现(网络结构)之间的双向反馈和动态交互.在构建模拟系统的基础上,设计并运行了一系列的实验方案,对仿真模型及模拟结果进行信度检验,并结合多次模拟实验样本数据的统计分析,考察全局交互比例,局部连接概率等网络结构变量、合作收益、惩罚措施等博弈参数变量、以及决策个性等主体属性变量对城市群政府博弈形势与合作水平的动态影响,为促进城市群政府合作和区域一体化进程提供决策依据和政策参考,也是政治学与公共行政学科计算实验研究的一次创新尝试.
[Abstract]:Taking the multi-stage evolutionary game in the government cooperation process of urban agglomeration under the perspective of social network as an example, the complete modeling process of conceptual model, mathematical model and computer model is adopted. An asymmetric evolutionary game system considering individual cost-benefit differences is established at the micro level of the subject interaction (and the interaction of the whole game and part of the game is taken into account at the same time), and a real society structure is established at the macro social structure level. Heterogeneous Social Network Model based on probabilistic connection between nodes (considering both global information interaction and local information interaction), and implemented through multi-agent system (especially the introduction of interactive will variables). The bidirectional feedback and dynamic interaction between micro interaction (game behavior) and macro emergence (network structure) are discussed. A series of experimental schemes are designed and run to test the reliability of the simulation model and the simulation results. The network structure variables such as global interaction ratio, local connection probability and so on are investigated in combination with the statistical analysis of the sample data of multiple simulation experiments. The dynamic influence on the game situation and cooperation level of the urban agglomeration government, such as cooperative income, penalty measures and other game parameter variables, as well as the subjective attribute variables such as decision-making personality, etc. It is also an innovative attempt for the experimental study of computing in the science of political science and public administration to provide policy basis and policy reference for promoting the government cooperation and regional integration process of urban agglomeration.
【作者单位】：清华大学公共管理学院;北京大学国际关系学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委员会与欧盟委员会合作交流项目(7161101045)
【分类号】：C912.3

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