渐进式接触:构建美国对伊朗核项目的新政策框架

发布时间：2018-04-27 04:05

本文选题：伊朗核项目 + 军事打击　；参考：《外交学院》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：伊朗核项目依旧是现任美国政府所面临的一个重大挑战。该问题的持续升温，加剧了外界关于以色列、或美国、或两者联合可能会在2012年对伊朗发动军事打击的猜测。由于这一问题悬而不决，加之解决该问题的紧急性，目前有许多论述这一问题的学术著作、政府官方报告、政策建议。其中很多都试图回答一个同样的问题：应如何应付伊朗？但却忽视回答这样一个问题，即伊朗的核项目一定会走向军事化吗？本文利用有关核扩散的理论和数据，分析伊朗发展核项目的目的，以回答上述问题。理解了伊朗坚持发展核项目的可能动因后，本文重点分析美国对伊朗核项目的主要政策。2012年6月开始，美国将加大对伊朗的制裁，并且关于今年以色列或美国将对伊朗实施军事打击的猜测也与日剧增，在这样的背景下，本文分析了通过实施军事打击以阻止伊朗核项目这一政策的不可行性，同时还论述了经济制裁在改变伊朗行为方面的局限性。本文进一步探讨了接触政策在应对伊朗核项目的可行性。鉴于美国历届政府对伊朗外交政策的失败，本文提出了一种新的美国对伊政策框架——渐进式接触，即一种逐步的、可核实的、基于修复关系的接触模式，旨在承认伊朗有发展和平核项目权利的同时，逐步消除伊朗走向核武器研发的动机。本文认为它是美国应对伊朗核项目的一种潜在可行政策。
[Abstract]:Iran's nuclear program remains a major challenge for the current administration. The continuing warming of the issue has fuelled speculation that Israel, or the United States, or a combination of the two could launch a military strike against Iran in 2012. Due to the uncertainty of this issue and the urgency of solving it, there are many academic works, official reports of the government, and policy recommendations on this issue. Many of them are trying to answer the same question: how should Iran be dealt with? But it ignores the question: will Iran's nuclear program be militarized? Based on the theory and data of nuclear proliferation, the purpose of Iran's nuclear program is analyzed to answer the above questions. After understanding the possible motivations of Iran's insistence on developing its nuclear program, this article focuses on the main US policy towards Iran's nuclear program. From June 2012 onwards, the United States will increase sanctions against Iran. And the speculation that Israel or the United States will carry out a military strike against Iran this year has also increased sharply. Against this background, this paper analyzes the infeasibility of the policy of stopping Iran's nuclear program by carrying out military strikes. It also discusses the limitations of economic sanctions in changing Iran's behavior. This paper further discusses the feasibility of engagement policy in dealing with Iran's nuclear program. In view of the failure of successive US administrations in their foreign policy toward Iran, this paper proposes a new framework of US policy toward Iran-gradual engagement, which is a gradual, verifiable, restoration-based contact model. The aim is to recognize Iran's right to develop a peaceful nuclear program while gradually eliminating its motivation to develop nuclear weapons. This paper argues that it is a potential policy for the United States to deal with Iran's nuclear program.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D871.2

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