中美亚太海权竞争的战略分析

发布时间：2018-07-17 17:04

【摘要】：海权之争是近代以来大国关系的地缘政治主线。当前的中美关系同样面临着海权之争,这将成为中美安全关系的"试金石"和影响中美新型大国关系构建的关键问题。中美亚太海权之争既有战略和地缘方面的宏观因素,也与中国海军发展和美国对此的认知与回应等具体问题领域有关。战略冲突、地缘冲突和偶发事件是引发中关亚太海权冲突的重要原因,而共存利益、冲突预防和危机管理则使和平存在可能。中美亚太海权之争的结果存在不确定性,最有可能的情形是虽难以发生大规模冲突,但却无法排除偶发事件所引发的冲突,因而关键在于做好冲突预防与危机管控。中国海权发展既需注意到中美战略的互动性,也需确定自身海权战略"以实力促和平"的大方向,掌握战略主动性,寻求与海权大国的利益共同点,避免发生冲突。
[Abstract]:The struggle of sea power is the main line of geopolitics in the relations between great powers in modern times. The current Sino-US relations are also facing the struggle of maritime power, which will become the "touchstone" of Sino-US security relations and the key issue that will influence the construction of the new type of great power relations between China and the United States. The dispute between China and the United States in Asia and the Pacific is related to both strategic and geographical factors, as well as specific issues such as the development of the Chinese navy and the United States' perception and response to it. Strategic conflicts, geopolitical conflicts and occasional incidents are the important causes of the conflicts between China and the Asia-Pacific region, while the coexistence of interests, conflict prevention and crisis management make the existence of peace possible. There is uncertainty in the outcome of the Asia-Pacific maritime power dispute between China and the United States. The most likely scenario is that it is difficult to have a large-scale conflict, but it is impossible to rule out the conflict caused by an accidental incident, so the key lies in doing a good job in conflict prevention and crisis management. The development of China's maritime power should not only pay attention to the interaction of Sino-US strategy, but also determine the general direction of its maritime power strategy "promoting peace by strength", master the strategic initiative, seek common interests with the great powers of sea power, and avoid conflicts.
【作者单位】：外交学院国际关系研究所;
【基金】：外交学院中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目“中美亚太海权竞争及其影响”(项目编号:31620142YKD06)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D822.371.2;D823

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