美俄关系拟“再重启”的逻辑、领域与限度

发布时间：2018-07-29 10:19

【摘要】：特朗普上台后,美国新政府开始奉行新的外交理念并拟再次"重启"美俄关系,这不仅是其新外交理念的必然要求,而且是遏制中国的现实需要,同时也是与俄对抗政策失效后的不得已选择。美俄关系拟"再重启"的领域包括叙利亚问题、乌克兰问题、打击恐怖主义以及战略稳定与军备控制等。然而,虽然特朗普意欲"再重启"美俄关系的意愿明显,但美国国会、舆论界以及精英群体中明显占据优势的反俄情绪势必对其构成极大牵制;美国不可能解除对俄罗斯的制裁,双方在称霸与反霸、单极与多极、崛起与打压、遏制与反制等问题上的结构性矛盾难以消解。此外,北约与俄罗斯之间围绕"东扩"与"反东扩"的矛盾与分歧不可调和,双方军事遏制与反遏制的激烈程度也难以缓和。所有这些因素都制约了美俄关系"再重启"的限度。本轮美俄关系即使实现了"再重启",最终仍有可能"重蹈"之前的"覆辙",美俄之间竞争及对抗的关系模式难以改变。
[Abstract]:After Trump came to power, the new American government began to pursue new diplomatic ideas and "restart" US Russian relations. This is not only an inevitable requirement of its new diplomatic concept, but also a realistic need to contain China. It is also an option after the failure of the policy of confrontation with Russia. The field of "reopening" of the US Russia relations includes the Syria issue. However, although Trump's desire for "reopening" US Russian relations is obvious, the anti Russian sentiment, which is clearly dominated by the United States Congress, the public opinion community and the elite group, is bound to be greatly reled; the United States can not lift sanctions against Russia. The structural contradictions between hegemony and hegemony, monopole and multipole, rise and pressure, and containment and counteraction are difficult to eliminate. In addition, the contradictions and differences between NATO and Russia are irreconcilable around "East Expansion" and "anti East Expansion", and the intensity of military containment and anti containment is difficult to mitigate. All these factors restrict the relationship between the United States and Russia. The relationship between the United States and Russia is still possible to "repeat the same", and the relationship between the US and Russia is difficult to change.
【作者单位】：山东大学政治学与公共管理学院;山东大学俄罗斯与中亚研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金规划项目“乌克兰危机背景下俄美博弈对中俄、中美关系的影响及对策研究”(项目编号:15BGJ045)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D851.2;D871.2

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