美反伊政治与伊核问题前景

发布时间：2018-11-28 14:41

【摘要】：伊朗核问题和美伊关系进展,尽管更多涉及国际政治,但其重要障碍之一则是美国国内政治。除了内贾德执政的强硬伊朗时期,自霍梅尼逝世后至今的整个美伊关系更多是受美国和以色列国内政治的影响。这在2013年伊朗政治生态转向温和、伊核问题取得重大进展的背景下体现得尤其明显。以鲁哈尼当选伊朗总统、伊核第一阶段协议的签署和落实为标志,伊核问题和美伊关系显现出积极发展的态势。但这一积极进展却引发美国内反伊政治力量的更大反弹,来自美国商务部的新制裁方案和美国国内对更多制裁的激烈讨论,说明基于伊朗人质危机的反伊民意和犹太人团体的反伊游说仍是中短期内美国内反伊政治的主要来源。就现有趋势判断,反伊政治未必能够阻止第一阶段协议的落实和最终签署全面协议,但的确会成为美国取消对伊主要制裁的障碍。如果制裁不能取消,伊核问题的解决和美伊关系缓和将不具备持续下去的条件。在这一背景下,中国一方面需要继续为推动伊核问题的解决以及美伊关系适度缓和作出积极贡献,另一方面也需在发展与伊朗经济合作时持谨慎态度,特别是要充分虑及美国制裁所造成的长期消极影响。
[Abstract]:One of the major obstacles to Iran's nuclear issue and progress in U.S.-Iran relations, though more involved in international politics, is domestic politics in the United States. With the exception of Ahmadinejad's hard-line Iran, the entire U.S.-Iran relationship since Khomeini's death has been more influenced by domestic politics in the United States and Israel. This was particularly evident against the backdrop of significant progress on Iran's nuclear issue in 2013, when Iran's political climate turned moderate. Marked by the election of Rouhani as Iranian president and the signing and implementation of the agreement on the first stage of the Iranian nuclear program, the Iranian nuclear issue and US-Iraq relations show a positive development trend. However, this positive development has led to a greater rebound of anti-Iraqi political forces in the United States. The new sanctions plan of the US Department of Commerce and the heated discussions on more sanctions in the United States are coming from the US Department of Commerce. It shows that the anti-Iraq public opinion based on the Iranian hostage crisis and the anti-Iraq lobbying by Jewish groups are still the main sources of anti-Iraq politics in the short and medium term. Judging from the current trend, anti-Iraqi politics may not be able to prevent the implementation of the first phase of the agreement and the eventual signing of a comprehensive agreement, but it will indeed become an obstacle for the United States to lift the major sanctions against Iraq. If sanctions cannot be lifted, the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue and the relaxation of relations between the United States and Iraq will not be sustainable. Against this background, on the one hand, China needs to continue to make positive contributions to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue and the moderate relaxation of US-Iraq relations, on the other hand, it also needs to be cautious in developing economic cooperation with Iran. In particular, the long-term negative effects of US sanctions should be fully taken into account.
【作者单位】：上海国际问题研究院;
【分类号】：D815.2

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