中国对欧盟直接投资的贸易效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 00:09

  本文选题：对外直接投资　切入点：贸易效应　出处：《武汉大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自20世纪50年代以来,对外直接投资与对外贸易之间的关系的研究就已成为理论和实证分析的主题之一,许多学者从不同角度,从理论和实证对对外直接投资与贸易的关系进行了广泛研究,但由于研究样本及研究方法上的不同,学者们关于对外直接投资与对外贸易间的关系尚未取得一致。欧盟作为最大的发达经济体,中国作为最大的发展中国家,双边投资与贸易的发展,无论对于双方自身,还是世界经济的繁荣与发展都至关重要。目前,中国是欧盟第一大进口来源地和仅次于美国的第二大贸易伙伴和第二大出口市场,欧盟是中国第一大贸易伙伴、第一大出口市场、第二大进口来源地及第四大境外直接投资目的地。随着经济全球化和区域化的不断加深,中欧双方互为重要经贸伙伴地位作用日益巩固。经过改革开放30多年的高速发展,中国已跃居世界第二大经济体。在世界经济乏力、欧元区尚未摆脱债务危机困扰的大背景下,中欧双方努力打造“升级版”的中欧关系,不仅符合中欧双方的共同利益,对世界经济的走势也将产生深远的影响。因此,沿着对外直接投资与对外贸易二者关系的思路出发,准确研判中国对欧盟投资与贸易的现状及特点,从贸易规模、国别差异以及贸易结构三个层面考察我国对欧盟的直接投资对母国贸易的影响效应,探讨中国对欧盟投资与贸易中可能存在的问题,为中国经济的可持续发展及维护良好的中欧贸易关系提供政策参考,全文主要内容包括七章：第一章引言。在阐述研究背景及研究意义的基础上,综合了国内外有关对外直接投资与对外贸易关系的文献,并对这些相关文献加以述评,然后说明本文的研究思路、主要研究内容、研究方法及创新点与不足。第二章对外直接投资与对外贸易关系的相关理论的引述。本章在回顾传统国际投资和国际贸易理论的基础上,将对外直接投资与对外贸易的关系概括为替代、互补与不确定三种,为本文后续的实证研究建立相应的理论基础。第三章研判中国对欧盟直接投资与贸易的发展。本章主要对中国对欧盟直接投资与贸易的发展历程进行剖析,基于总量、国别以及产品三个视角,投资与贸易两个维度,对中国对欧盟投资与贸易的发展予以阐释。第四章研究中国对欧盟直接投资对中国对欧盟贸易规模的影响。本章通过构建贸易引力模型,从进出口总量、出口及进口三个层面对中国对欧盟直接投资对中欧贸易规模的影响进行实证分析,并对不同影响因素在出口与进口方面的影响进行对比。结果表明,中国对欧盟直接投资,无论在短期,还是长期内对中欧贸易规模均产生正向的作用,且中国对欧盟直接投资对中欧贸易规模在长期内的影响要大于在短期内的影响。从短期来看,中国对欧盟直接投资的反向进口效应要大于出口引致效应,而从长期来看,中国对欧盟直接投资的出口创引致效应又大于反向进口效应。第五章研究中国对欧盟直接投资的贸易结构效应。我们通过构建中国对欧盟进出口产品结构的贸易引力模型,将中欧贸易产品划分为初级产品及工业制成品两大类,进一步将工业制成品分解为资本密集型产品及劳动密集型产品,从出口以及进口两方面检验中国对欧盟直接投资对母国贸易结构的影响效应。结果表明,总体来看,中国对欧盟的直接投资对中欧(盟)间的进出口贸易均具有显著促进作用的产品类别为劳动密集型产品,且对该类产品在中国对欧盟的出口方面的促进效应大于进口方面；此外,中国对欧盟的直接投资对中国对欧盟资本密集型产品的出口,以及中国自欧盟进口资源密集型产品也具有显著的促进作用。第六章研究中国对欧盟直接投资的贸易效应的国别差异。本章在前两章的基础上,对中国对欧盟直接投资的贸易效应的国别差异进行测度。首先我们对对外直接投资的贸易效应的国别差异的相关文献进行分析,然后对对外直接投资的贸易效应的国别差异产生的机理进行阐释,随后运用面板数据建立的贸易引力模型对中国对欧盟直接投资的贸易效应的国别差异进行实证分析,结果表明,从欧盟整体来看,中国对主要欧盟国家的直接投资具有明显的出口创造效应、进口创造效应及进出口总贸易创造效应,我国对欧盟直接投资的出口创造效应与进口创造效应在不同国家有所差异,中国与欧盟各国原有的贸易联系在一定程度上影响中国对欧盟直接投资的贸易效应的国别差异。第七章 全文结论、政策建议及研究展望。本章是对全文的总结,并在此基础上,探讨调整中国对欧盟的直接投资与协调中欧(盟)投资与贸易的关系,为促进中国对欧盟的直接投资的健康发展和增强中国与欧盟的相互贸易提出具有可操作性的对策与建议,同时,也对本课题未来的发展进行展望。通过探讨中国对欧盟直接投资对中欧(盟)贸易的影响,我们明显的感觉到,中国对欧盟直接投资与中国对欧盟贸易的扩大、效应的增强呈正发展趋势,这些现象主要体现在贸易规模、贸易国别及贸易结构三个方面。我们应在“走出去”,特别是“一带一路”战略的指引下,通过调整对欧盟直接投资与贸易政策,增强中国对外投资的效益,进而提升中国对外经济与文化的软实力,营造投资与贸易相互促进的战略合作伙伴关系,将中欧经贸关系向更高、更深层次推进。
[Abstract]:Since 1950s, research on the relationship between foreign direct investment and foreign trade has become one of the topics of theoretical and empirical analysis, many scholars from different angles, conducted extensive research on the relationship between foreign direct investment and trade from theoretical and empirical research, but due to the sample and research methods of the different scholars relationship on foreign direct investment and foreign trade has not yet been agreed. As the EU's largest developed economies, Chinese as the largest developing country, the development of bilateral trade and investment, both for the parties themselves, or the prosperity and development of the world economy is very important. At present, China is the EU's largest source of imports and second only to the United States largest trading partner and second largest export market, the EU is Chinese's biggest trading partner, the largest export market, the second major import sources and The fourth largest overseas investment destination. With the economic globalization and regional integration continues to deepen, the two sides are important trade partners role increasingly consolidated. After the reform and opening up 30 years of rapid development, Chinese has become the second largest economy in the world. In the world economy, the euro zone has yet to get rid of the debt crisis of the next big background the two sides, to create an upgraded version of the China EU relations, not only conforms to the common interests of both China and the EU, will have a far-reaching impact on the trend of the world economy. Therefore, starting along the foreign direct investment and foreign trade relationship between the two ideas, accurately judge the status and characteristics of the investment and trade Chinese, from trade the scale of national differences and trade structure three aspects of China's effect on the direct investment effect on trade of home country, to explore the China of EU trade and investment Possible problems in sustainable development of economy and trade between China and the EU China maintain good relations to provide policy reference, the main content of this paper includes seven chapters: the first chapter is introduction. Based on expatiating the research background and significance, the domestic and foreign literature on the relationship between foreign direct investment and foreign trade, and review of the relevant literature, and then explain the research ideas of this paper, the main research contents, research methods and innovations and shortcomings. The second chapter quoted the relevant theory of foreign direct investment and foreign trade relations. In this chapter, look back to the foundation of the traditional international investment and international trade theory, the relationship between foreign direct investment and foreign trade summary as an alternative, complementary with three kinds of uncertainty, establish the corresponding theoretical basis for the subsequent empirical research. The third chapter judged Chinese direct investment in the EU and Trade Development Show. This chapter focuses on the Chinese development process of EU direct investment and trade are analyzed, based on the total, three from the perspective of country and product, the two dimensions of investment and trade, explains to the China of EU investment and trade development. The fourth chapter studies on the direct investment of Chinese Chinese on EU trade scale effect this chapter through the construction of the gravity model, from the import and export volume, export and import of the three aspects of Chinese direct investment in the EU on China EU trade scale empirical analysis, and to compare different factors influence in terms of exports and imports. The results show that Chinese direct investment in the EU, both in the short term in the long term, or on China EU trade scale has positive effect, and Chinese direct investment in the EU on China EU trade scale in the long term effect is greater than the impact in the short term from. The short term, the reverse effect China imported direct investment in the EU is greater than the export effect, but in the long run, China exports to the EU's direct investment and effect than the reverse effect. The fifth chapter studies the import Chinese direct investment in the EU's trade structure effect. We construct the EU import and export trade structure the gravity model China, the Sino EU trade product of primary products and manufactured goods are divided into two categories, the industrial manufactured goods into capital intensive products and labor-intensive products, from the two aspects of export and import inspection China of EU direct investment effect on home country trade structure. The results show that, overall, China of EU the direct investment of central Europe (EU) between the import and export trade has a significant role in promoting the product categories for labor-intensive products, and the China of export products in the EU's promotion effect is greater than imports; in addition, Chinese direct investment in the EU to China exports to the EU capital intensive products, and import from the EU China resource intensive products also have a significant role. The sixth chapter studies China country differences in direct investment in the EU's trade effect this chapter based on the previous two chapters, national differences on trade effect Chinese direct investment in the EU to measure the relevant literature. Firstly we country differences on foreign direct investment trade effect is analyzed, and then explains the mechanism of cross-country differences in the trade effect of foreign direct investment of the country, followed by the use of the trade gravity model based on panel data of trade effect China direct investment in the EU between the empirical analysis results show that from the whole Body, Chinese direct investment in major EU countries have obvious import export creation, create effect and import and export trade creation effect, China's exports to the EU's direct investment creation effect and import creation effects are different in different countries, Chinese and EU trade ties affect the country differences in the trade effect of China direct investment in the EU in a certain extent. The seventh chapter is the conclusions, policy recommendations and research prospects. This chapter is a summary of the full text, and on this basis, to discuss the adjustment of China on direct investment and coordination of Central European (EU) relationship between investment and trade, to promote the healthy development of Chinese direct investment the European Union and enhance mutual trade with the EU Chinese has put forward countermeasures and suggestions of operation at the same time, is also the subject of future development was discussed. Through the discussion Chinese The EU direct investment in Central Europe (EU) trade influence, we obviously feel that China to expand investment in the EU and Chinese on EU trade, enhance the development trend of positive effect, these phenomena are mainly embodied in the three aspects of trade scale, trade structure and trade partners. We should "go out" especially the "The Belt and Road" strategy under the guidance of the policy of the EU direct investment and trade, enhance Chinese foreign investment efficiency, and enhance the soft power of foreign economic and cultural Chinese, strategic partnership to create a mutual promotion of investment and trade, the China EU economic and trade relations to a higher, deeper push.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F125;F752.7
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本文编号：1613544