中国与南亚的贸易潜力研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 10:55

本文选题：“一带一路” + 中国　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,由于地缘区位优势、地缘政治地位的不断上升,加之地区经济高速增长等原因,南亚一直倍受世界关注。进入2016年以来,南亚的经济表现整体依然亮眼,在全球经济放缓的背景下仍然成为了世界经济增速最快的地区之一,预计其经济增长率将达到6%左右。2013年以来,随着“一带一路”倡议的提出和实施,中国与南亚的经贸合作成为了中国向西开放发展战略的重要组成部分。因此,加强对中国与南亚双边贸易发展的结构、潜力及相关问题的研究是非常有意义的。本文在研究中国与南亚的双边贸易时发现:中国与南亚一直存在着贸易失衡问题。具体情况是,中国对南亚国家处于贸易顺差状态,且差额有逐年上升的趋势。在分析中国与南亚国家双边贸易现状的基础上,利用国际贸易标准分类方法(SITC)将贸易产品分为十大类,进而分析中国的对外贸易结构、南亚对外贸易结构以及中国与南亚的双边贸易结构。在关于中国与南亚贸易结构的竞争性与互补性分析中,运用显性比较优势指数、出口相似度指数和贸易互补指数进行定量分析,并通过实证分析为提高中国与南亚贸易发展水平提供政策建议。论文的研究分为五个部分。第一部分,绪论。主要内容包括:探讨中国与南亚贸易潜力的研究背景及研究意义;对国际贸易理论和区域经济合作相关理论进行综述;对中国与南亚地区、国家经贸合作的文献进行综述,对中国对外贸易发展潜力测算的方法进行综述;第二部分,中国与南亚国家对外贸易发展现状研究。主要内容包括:分别对中国、南亚地区、南亚国家的贸易发展水平、贸易结构进行分别测算;测算中国与南亚的双边进、出口发展情况并进行贸易平衡分析;对中国和南亚地区、国家的双边贸易结构进行分类,再用贸易强度指数计算、分析中国与南亚国家的贸易联系程度。第三部分,中国与南亚贸易结构的竞争性与互补性分析。主要内容包括:在中国与南亚的贸易竞争性问题上,运用显示性比较优势指数和出口相似度指数进行定量分析;在互补性问题上则采用贸易互补指数进行定量分析。第四部分,对中国与南亚的贸易潜力进行实证研究。主要内容包括:利用贸易引力模型,构造贸易潜力测算模型,分别将海运距离、两国人均GDP差等作为解释变量,将WTO作为虚拟变量并引入到实证研究中,量化分析中国—南亚国家的贸易潜力,并测算出贸易潜力值,分析结论可知中国与南亚国家的贸易空间巨大。第五部分,提高中国与南亚贸易发展水平的政策建议。主要内容包括:首先,根据前文的分析对研究结论进行精炼和总结。在前人研究的基础上,结合国际贸易理论和区域经济相关理论,比对前文研究中存在的问题,从增强中国与南亚的双边政治互信、提高中国与南亚(国家)的双边贸易便利化水平、利用多维度的次区域、区域合作平台加强经贸合作,以及提高中国对南亚的投资水平和投资领域针对性等四个方面,分别提出了推进中国—南亚贸易发展水平的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, because of the advantages of geographical location, the rising geopolitical status and the rapid growth of regional economy, South Asia has been paying more and more attention to the world. Since 2016, the economic performance of South Asia is still still bright, and is still one of the fastest growing regions in the world economy in the context of the global economic slowdown, which is expected to be expected. Since the economic growth rate will reach around 6%.2013, with the proposed and implemented The Belt and Road "initiative, Chinese and South Asia economic and trade cooperation has become an important part of Chinese opening to the west development strategy. Therefore, to strengthen the structure of China and south of the development of bilateral trade, research potential and related problems is very meaningful. In the study of bilateral trade between China and South Asia, the problem of trade imbalance between China and South Asia has been found. The specific situation is that China is in the state of trade surplus with South Asian countries, and the difference has a trend of increasing year by year. Based on the analysis of the bilateral trade status between China and South Asian countries, the international trade standard classification method (S ITC) divide the trade products into ten categories, and then analyze the structure of China's foreign trade, the foreign trade structure of South Asia and the bilateral trade structure of China and South Asia. In the analysis of the competitiveness and complementarity of China's trade structure with South Asia, the dominant comparative advantage index, the export similarity index and the trade complementarity index are used to make a quantitative analysis. Analysis, and through empirical analysis to improve China and South Asia trade development level to provide policy recommendations. The thesis is divided into five parts. The first part, introduction. The main content includes: To explore the research background and significance of China and South Asia trade potential; the international trade theory and regional economic cooperation related theories are summarized; The literature of national and South Asia, the literature of national economic and trade cooperation is reviewed, and the methods of measuring the potential of China's foreign trade development are summarized. The second part, the current situation of China and South Asian countries' foreign trade development. The main contents are as follows: the trade development level and the trade structure of China, South Asia, South Asian countries respectively; The bilateral trade between China and South Asia, export development and trade balance analysis; the classification of the bilateral trade structure of China and South Asia, and the trade intensity index calculation to analyze the trade relations between China and South Asian countries. The third part, the competitive and complementary analysis of the trade structure between China and South Asia. The contents include: on the issue of trade competitiveness between China and South Asia, the quantitative analysis is made by using the index of display comparative advantage and the index of export similarity, and the quantitative analysis is carried out by the trade complementarity index on the complementarity problem. The fourth part makes an empirical study on the trade potential of China and South Asia. The main contents include the use of trade. The model of easy gravity, the model of calculating the potential of trade potential is used as the explanatory variable. WTO is used as a virtual variable and introduced into the empirical study. The trade potential of China South Asian countries is quantified and the potential value of trade is calculated. The conclusion is that the trade space between China and South Asian countries is huge. The fifth part, the policy suggestions to improve the development level of China and South Asia. The main contents are as follows: first, the research conclusions are refined and summed up according to the previous analysis. On the basis of previous studies, combined with the international trade theory and regional economic related theories, the problems existing in the previous study are compared and the two are strengthened from China and South Asia. With four aspects, such as mutual political mutual trust, enhancing the level of bilateral trade facilitation of China and South Asia (the state), using multi-dimensional subregion, regional cooperation platform to strengthen economic and trade cooperation, and improving China's investment level in South Asia and the pertinence of investment field, this paper puts forward the Countermeasures and suggestions to push the development level of China South Asia trade.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.5

【参考文献】