东道国领导人更替对中国在“一带一路”沿线直接投资的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 14:38

本文选题：领导人更替 + “一带一路”　；参考：《广东外语外贸大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：领导人在经济发展中的作用近年来逐渐凸显。本文运用2003-2014的面板数据,考察了东道国领导人更替对中国在“一带一路”沿线直接投资的影响。研究发现:总体上,东道国领导人更替后一年间对中国在“一带一路”沿线的直接投资不存在显著的影响,但这种影响在更替三年后却显现出来,并起到了显著积极的作用。进一步的研究发现,这种影响因东道国政体的不同、领导人更替的方式不同而有异:在民主型东道国,领导人更替后一年间就显示出显著的积极影响,而在威权型东道国这种影响却存在更长的滞后性。此外,因不同方式更替的领导人对中国对外直接投资的作用也不相同。因非正常原因更替的领导人在威权型国家对中国对外直接投资有着显著消极的影响,而民主国家则不然,这或许是由于民主国家更为健全的社会体制降低了相应的政治风险。因此,中国企业开展海外直接投资必须重视东道国领导人更替的情况,并根据东道国政治体制,有针对性地采取相应策略。
[Abstract]:The role of leaders in economic development has become increasingly prominent in recent years. Using panel data from 2003 to 2014, this paper examines the influence of the change of host country leaders on China's direct investment along "Belt and Road". It is found that, in general, there is no significant effect on China's direct investment along "Belt and Road" one year after the change of the host country leader, but this effect appears three years after the change and has played a significant positive role. Further studies have found that this effect varies according to the system of government of the host country and the way in which leaders change: in democratic host countries, a year after the change of leadership shows a significant positive impact, But in the authoritarian host country this kind of influence actually has the longer lag nature. In addition, the role of China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) is not the same because of the change of leadership in different ways. Leaders who have changed for irregular reasons have a significant negative impact on China's foreign direct investment in authoritarian countries, but not in democracies, perhaps because a more robust social system in democracies reduces the corresponding political risks. Therefore, Chinese enterprises should attach importance to the change of leaders in host countries and adopt corresponding strategies according to the political system of host countries.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;F279.2

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