莫迪政府对华“问题外交”策略研究——兼论该视角下印度对“一带一路”倡议的态度

发布时间：2018-05-28 19:33

本文选题：莫迪政府 + 印度对华政策　；参考：《当代亚太》2017年06期

【摘要】：文章回溯了近年来印度莫迪政府对华外交策略的表现和成效,将莫迪政府的对华外交总结概述为"问题外交",其要旨在于印度把中印关系解构为若干具体问题,就这些问题向中国提出诉求,将中国对这些问题的回复是否符合印度的意愿作为衡量中国对印度尊重程度以及对中印关系重视程度的标准,并以此为依据确定下一轮对华外交行动。文章总结了莫迪政府对华"问题外交"的基本特点,即不关心整体状态、不担心中方报复、不考虑对等性质、不长期纠缠具体分歧的"四不"特征。进而,文章讨论了印度对华心态和其"问题外交"策略之间的关联,认为莫迪政府对华的"问题外交"策略源自于,印度认为目前中印关系的实力对比难以在所有领域取得外交突破,但在中印双边战略中,中国投入资源的决心和意志明显弱于印度;与此同时,印度预判国际环境对自己采取对华机会主义策略的形势有利,并对未来两国实力横向比较持对己方更为乐观的预期。上述因素促使印度对华采取与其实力不相称的攻势策略。文章最后重点分析了莫迪政府对华"问题外交"思维对印度参与"一带一路"的态度的影响,认为在印度对"一带一路"倡议的性质和中方意图心存疑虑的情况下,中国能否消除印度的疑虑实际上并不取决于中国对印度的政策取向以及成效,而是"一带一路"在南亚其他国家所取得的具体成果。
[Abstract]:The article looks back on the performance and effect of India's Modi government's diplomatic strategy towards China in recent years, and summarizes Modi's diplomacy with China as "problem diplomacy", the main purpose of which is that India deconstructs Sino-Indian relations as a number of specific problems. To appeal to China on these issues and to judge whether China's response to these questions is in line with India's wishes as a measure of China's respect for India and the importance it attaches to Sino-Indian relations. And on this basis to determine the next round of diplomatic action against China. This paper summarizes the basic characteristics of Modi's government's "problem diplomacy" towards China, that is, it does not care about the overall state, does not worry about Chinese retaliation, does not consider the nature of reciprocity, and does not dwell on the "four noes" of specific differences for a long time. Furthermore, the paper discusses the relationship between India's attitude towards China and its "problem diplomacy" strategy, and points out that the Modi government's "problem diplomacy" strategy to China originates from, India believes that it is difficult to achieve diplomatic breakthroughs in all fields in the current strength balance of Sino-Indian relations. However, in the bilateral strategy of China and India, China's determination and will to invest resources is obviously weaker than that of India; at the same time, India prejudges that the international environment is favourable to its opportunistic strategy with China and is more optimistic about the future horizontal comparison of the two countries' power. These factors have prompted India to adopt an offensive strategy against China that is not commensurate with its strength. At the end of the article, the author analyzes the influence of Modi government's "problem diplomacy" thinking on India's attitude towards "Belt and Road", and holds that India has doubts about the nature of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the intention of the Chinese side. Whether China can allay India's doubts does not depend on China's policy orientation and effectiveness towards India, but on the concrete results achieved by the "Belt and Road" in other countries in South Asia.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院;
【分类号】：D822.3;D835.1

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