“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施状况对中国出口贸易的影响
发布时间：2018-10-07 20:12
【摘要】：共建"一带一路"是中国向周边国家发出的倡议,其中贸易畅通是共建"一带一路"的重点内容。在全球经济下滑,贸易保护主义抬头的大环境下,中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易不断增长且潜力巨大,扩大贸易合作对稳定沿线国家经济增长有着重要意义。"一带一路"沿线不少发展中国家发展水平相对较低,基础设施条件较差。伴随这些国家的开放和发展,基础设施不足对经济发展和贸易开展的瓶颈效应显现出来。除此之外,中国与许多国家之间仍有各种贸易壁垒存在,不便于扩大交往,因此,如何使贸易、投资更加便利,构建"一带一路"良好的合作环境,将这块"蛋糕"做大做好,是"一带一路"建设中各国面对的共同问题。中国强调设施联通是"一带一路"建设的优先领域,并倡导各国应该加强基础设施建设规划的对接,共同推进沿线国家交通、能源、信息建设,逐步形成区域内互联互通的基础设施网络。本文通过已有的文献研究基础设施建设对贸易的影响机制。基础设施作为一项投资短期内可以扩大需求,起到稳定经济增长的作用,从长期来看可以提高社会生产效率,通过促进经济长期增长、增加国民收入影响贸易需求。基础设施对企业生产、经营具有外部性,可以提高企业生产率,降低企业固定成本、变动成本和交易成本,因此基础设施会通过影响企业的生产函数来影响企业的决策。本文将基础设施变量纳入Melitz的异质性模型框架中,证明了基础设施对于企业开展贸易的促进作用。由于每一类基础设施包含的内容非常丰富,而且每个国家的状况又差异很大,因此用单一的指标来评估一国的基础设施状况不够科学。本文利用可得的数据,构建了包含多维度指标信息的综合指数来评估"一带一路"沿线国家的各项基础设施水平。本文在构建基础设施指数的基础上,建立2002-2013年面板数据,通过计量实证,检验了"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施对中国出口的影响,得出以下结论:交通、能源、信息三类基础设施对中国出口贸易的影响均显著为正,其中交通基础设施影响最大;签订自由贸易协定、建立自由贸易区可以降低贸易壁垒,促进中国的出口;对外直接投资对于贸易的促进效应要大于替代效应,对外工程承包也可以拉动贸易出口;"一带一路"沿线一些国家存在地缘政治风险,中国更倾向与政治稳定的国家进行贸易。
[Abstract]:Belt and Road is an initiative of China to neighboring countries, among which smooth trade is the key content. Under the global economic downturn and the rise of trade protectionism, trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" has been growing and has great potential. Expanding trade cooperation is of great significance to stabilize the economic growth of the countries along the route. " Many developing countries along Belt and Road have a relatively low level of development and poor infrastructure. With the opening up and development of these countries, the bottleneck effect of inadequate infrastructure on economic development and trade is evident. In addition, there are still various trade barriers between China and many countries, which are not conducive to expanding exchanges. Therefore, how to make trade and investment more convenient, to build a good cooperative environment for "Belt and Road", and to make this "cake" bigger and better, It is a common problem faced by all countries in the construction of Belt and Road. China emphasizes that facility connectivity is a priority area for "Belt and Road" construction, and advocates that countries should strengthen the docking of infrastructure construction plans and jointly promote transportation, energy, and information construction in the countries along the route. The infrastructure network of regional interconnection is gradually formed. This paper studies the influence mechanism of infrastructure construction on trade through the existing literature. Infrastructure, as an investment, can expand demand and stabilize economic growth in the short term. In the long run, it can improve the efficiency of social production and influence trade demand by promoting long-term economic growth and increasing national income. Infrastructure has externality to enterprise production and operation, which can improve productivity, reduce firm fixed cost, variable cost and transaction cost. Therefore, infrastructure will influence enterprise's decision by influencing enterprise's production function. In this paper, the infrastructure variables are incorporated into the heterogeneity model of Melitz, which proves the facilitating effect of infrastructure on enterprises' trade. Because each type of infrastructure contains a great deal of content and the situation of each country varies greatly, it is not scientific to use a single indicator to assess the state of a country's infrastructure. Based on the available data, this paper constructs a comprehensive index including multi-dimensional index information to evaluate the infrastructure level of the countries along "Belt and Road". Based on the construction of infrastructure index, this paper establishes the panel data from 2002 to 2013, tests the impact of infrastructure on China's exports by econometric evidence, and draws the following conclusions: transportation, energy, The impact of the three kinds of information infrastructure on China's export trade is significant positive, among which the transport infrastructure has the greatest impact, and the signing of free trade agreements and the establishment of free trade zones can reduce trade barriers and promote China's exports. The promotion effect of foreign direct investment to trade is greater than the substitution effect, and foreign project contracting can also stimulate the export of trade. Some countries along "Belt and Road" have geopolitical risks, and China tends to trade with countries with political stability.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62
，
本文编号：2255524
[Abstract]:Belt and Road is an initiative of China to neighboring countries, among which smooth trade is the key content. Under the global economic downturn and the rise of trade protectionism, trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" has been growing and has great potential. Expanding trade cooperation is of great significance to stabilize the economic growth of the countries along the route. " Many developing countries along Belt and Road have a relatively low level of development and poor infrastructure. With the opening up and development of these countries, the bottleneck effect of inadequate infrastructure on economic development and trade is evident. In addition, there are still various trade barriers between China and many countries, which are not conducive to expanding exchanges. Therefore, how to make trade and investment more convenient, to build a good cooperative environment for "Belt and Road", and to make this "cake" bigger and better, It is a common problem faced by all countries in the construction of Belt and Road. China emphasizes that facility connectivity is a priority area for "Belt and Road" construction, and advocates that countries should strengthen the docking of infrastructure construction plans and jointly promote transportation, energy, and information construction in the countries along the route. The infrastructure network of regional interconnection is gradually formed. This paper studies the influence mechanism of infrastructure construction on trade through the existing literature. Infrastructure, as an investment, can expand demand and stabilize economic growth in the short term. In the long run, it can improve the efficiency of social production and influence trade demand by promoting long-term economic growth and increasing national income. Infrastructure has externality to enterprise production and operation, which can improve productivity, reduce firm fixed cost, variable cost and transaction cost. Therefore, infrastructure will influence enterprise's decision by influencing enterprise's production function. In this paper, the infrastructure variables are incorporated into the heterogeneity model of Melitz, which proves the facilitating effect of infrastructure on enterprises' trade. Because each type of infrastructure contains a great deal of content and the situation of each country varies greatly, it is not scientific to use a single indicator to assess the state of a country's infrastructure. Based on the available data, this paper constructs a comprehensive index including multi-dimensional index information to evaluate the infrastructure level of the countries along "Belt and Road". Based on the construction of infrastructure index, this paper establishes the panel data from 2002 to 2013, tests the impact of infrastructure on China's exports by econometric evidence, and draws the following conclusions: transportation, energy, The impact of the three kinds of information infrastructure on China's export trade is significant positive, among which the transport infrastructure has the greatest impact, and the signing of free trade agreements and the establishment of free trade zones can reduce trade barriers and promote China's exports. The promotion effect of foreign direct investment to trade is greater than the substitution effect, and foreign project contracting can also stimulate the export of trade. Some countries along "Belt and Road" have geopolitical risks, and China tends to trade with countries with political stability.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62
，
本文编号：2255524
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