突发事件应急预案启动时机的战线策略研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 23:14

本文选题：突发事件 + 应急预案　；参考：《西安工业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：社会和经济活动中会发生各类突发事件,为了应对这些突发事件,决策者制定了相应的应急预案,而且启动应急预案时需要支付一个固定费用。如果突发事件发生,每天都造成一定损失,并且持续时间无法预知。那么,决策者在突发事件持续时间无法预知的情况下,是否启动以及何时启动应急预案使得费用尽可能小具有重要的理论意义和实际价值。现有关于应急预案启动时机的研究大多采用静态或随机模型,假设突发事件持续时间服从某一统计规律；或者是采用经典的占线问题分析框架,假设突发事件发生后每天造成的损失为固定值,而这些研究不能满足实际需求。基于此,本文首先采用占线风险补偿模型的分析框架,研究决策者愿意承担一定风险对突发事件持续时间进行预期以及预期成功存在概率情形下的应急预案启动时机的占线策略及其执行效果；并研究突发事件发生后每天造成的损失服从某一概率分布情形下的应急预案启动时机的占线策略及其执行效果。研究结果一方面可弥补现有研究的不足,另一方面可以为相关应急管理决策部门确定应急预案的启动时机提供依据,从而提高突发事件应急管理的效率论文的主要工作和创新性成果如下：建立突发事件应急预案启动时机的占线风险补偿模型,设计竞争策略并分析策略的执行效果(竞争比)。在占线风险补偿模型的分析框架下,首先提出经典占线最优启动时机策略,证明该策略的竞争性能比及其最优性；进而设计决策者愿意承担一定风险对突发事件持续时间进行预期以及预期成功存在概率的占线风险补偿启动时机策略,分析策略的期望约束竞争比和期望补偿收益。研究结果表明,当预期的突发事件持续时间不大于突发事件持续的临界时间时,决策者采取的风险补偿启动时机策略可获得期望补偿收益,并且所获得的期望补偿收益与突发事件实际的持续时间成正比,与预期成功的概率成反比。当预期的突发事件持续时间大于突发事件持续的临界时间时,决策者采取的风险补偿启动时机策略获得期望补偿收益,并且所获得的期望补偿收益与突发事件实际的持续时间无关,与决策者承担的风险容忍度成正比,与预期成功的概率成正比；最后对美国“9.11”事件进行实例分析,验证模型和竞争策略的有效性。建立突发事件应急预案启动时机的占线贝叶斯模型,设计竞争策略并分析策略的执行效果(竞争比)。在经典占线模型的分析框架下,针对突发事件发生后每天造成的损失服从某一概率分布的情形,建立突发事件应急预案启动时机的占线模型；在日损失服从正态分布的情形下,设计正态损失贝叶斯策略,并分析策略的执行效果；在日损失服从几何分布的情形下,设计几何损失贝叶斯策略,并分析策略的执行效果。研究结果表明,这两种策略下当突发事件持续的临界时间不大于突发事件的实际持续时间时,策略的竞争比与突发事件的实际持续时间无关；当突发事件持续的临界时间大于突发事件的实际持续时间时,策略的竞争比与突发事件的实际持续时间成反比。这两种策略下最坏情形的费用是最优离线费用的2倍以内。最后以西安某高校发生的蟑螂事件和学生抵制日货示威游行事件为例,验证模型和竞争策略的有效性。
[Abstract]:In order to deal with these emergencies , the decision - makers have developed corresponding contingency plans in order to deal with these emergencies , and it is necessary to pay a fixed charge when the emergency plan is started . If the emergency occurs , a certain loss is caused every day , and the duration is unpredictable . In the case of unforeseen events , the decision - maker will have important theoretical significance and practical value as much as possible . The existing research on the start - up time of the emergency plan is mostly static or stochastic model , and it is assumed that the duration of the emergency is subject to a certain statistical law ;
In this paper , based on the analysis framework of the line risk compensation model , the paper firstly adopts the analysis framework of the line risk compensation model , and the research decision - makers are willing to bear some risk to predict the duration of the emergency and the probability of the success of the contingency plan .
On the one hand , it can make up the shortage of the existing research , and on the other hand , can provide the basis for the relevant emergency management decision - making departments to determine the start - up time of the emergency plan , so as to improve the efficiency of emergency management .

The main work and innovative results of the thesis are as follows :

Based on the analysis frame of the line risk compensation model , this paper firstly puts forward the strategy of optimal start timing of the classical busy line , and proves the competition performance ratio and its optimal performance of the strategy .
The research results show that the risk compensation starting timing strategy adopted by the decision maker can obtain the expected compensation benefit when the expected emergency duration is not greater than the critical time duration of the emergency , and the expected compensation benefit obtained is proportional to the actual duration of the incident , and the expected compensation benefit is not related to the actual duration of the incident , and the expected compensation benefit is proportional to the actual duration of the incident , and is proportional to the risk tolerance of the decision maker , and is proportional to the probability of the expected success ;
Finally , the United States " 9.11 " event was analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the model and the competition strategy .

Based on the analysis frame of the classical busy model , the paper sets up the busy model of the start - up time of the emergency response plan .
In the case of daily loss subject to normal distribution , the positive state loss Bayesian strategy is designed , and the implementation effect of the strategy is analyzed .
The results show that when the critical time duration is not greater than the actual duration of the incident , the competition ratio of the strategy is independent of the actual duration of the incident .
When the critical time duration is greater than the actual duration of the incident , the competition ratio of the strategy is inversely proportional to the actual duration of the incident . The worst case cost in both strategies is within 2 times of the optimal offline cost . Finally , the effectiveness of the model and the competition strategy is verified by the cockroach events and the student ' s boycott of the daily demonstrations .
【学位授予单位】：西安工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D035

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