合肥市工业行业能源消费碳排放及减排潜力分析

发布时间：2018-10-16 23:03

【摘要】：目前我国正处于工业化和城市化进程中,伴随我国经济快速发展,能源消费量急速增加,引发一系列以极端气候灾害为主的环境问题;这不仅仅局限在气候和环境领域,而是逐步上升到经济合作与竞争、新能源利用与开发、社会发展与和谐等层面,成为国际谈判和主流经济学家关注的热点之一。安徽与上海、江苏、浙江26个城市组成的新长三角城市群是“一带一路”与长江经济带的重要交汇地带,也是我国经济社会发展的重要引擎。合肥市作为安徽省经济发展中心,正承接着长三角地区向中西部欠发达省份的经济战略转移,在经济飞速发展的同时面临着巨大的节能降碳压力。本文以合肥市碳排放量最大的工业部门为研究对象,在借鉴国内外先进研究成果的基础上,确立了本研究的核心思路。首先,详细介绍了环境经济学、可持续发展理论、低碳经济等理论基础及碳排放因素分解方法、碳减排潜力等应用模型,为下文的具体研究提供理论和分析基础。其次,运用碳排放核算方法对2000-2014年合肥市工业化石能源消费碳排放量进行测算,分别对合肥市工业发展现状、能源消费现状、碳排放现状进行分析。接着,构建LMDI模型,分析影响合肥市工业各行业化石能源消费碳排放量的驱动因素。最后,借助GM(1,1)模型、碳减排建立模型分别预测各行业2020年碳减排压力及碳减排潜力。通过系统研究,本文得出主要结论是,合肥尚处于工业化中期,产业结构不合理,以煤炭为主的能源结构极大地促进了碳排放增长;电力行业、黑色金属行业、非金属行业等六大高耗能行业继续成为推高合肥工业碳排放的主要角色。从影响碳排放变化的因素来看,能源利用效率的提高、内部产业结构的优化、能源结构的调整,但其难以抵消工业经济高速发展对碳排放量增长的推动作用。2020年非金属行业、电力行业较其他行业减排压力大;其中电力、化学原料这两类行业应该成为今后碳减排的重点。
[Abstract]:At present, our country is in the process of industrialization and urbanization. With the rapid development of our economy and the rapid increase in energy consumption, a series of environmental problems mainly caused by extreme climatic disasters have been triggered; this is not confined to the fields of climate and environment. Instead, it has gradually risen to the level of economic cooperation and competition, new energy utilization and development, social development and harmony, and has become one of the hot spots in international negotiations and mainstream economists. The new Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, composed of 26 cities in Anhui and Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, is an important confluence zone between Belt and Road and the Yangtze River economic belt, and also an important engine for the economic and social development of our country. As the economic development center of Anhui Province, Hefei is carrying on the economic strategic transfer from Yangtze River Delta to the underdeveloped provinces in the central and western regions, and is facing enormous pressure of saving energy and reducing carbon at the same time of rapid economic development. In this paper, based on the advanced research results at home and abroad, the core idea of this study is established, which is based on the industry department with the largest carbon emissions in Hefei. Firstly, it introduces the environmental economics, the theory of sustainable development, the theory of low-carbon economy, the decomposition methods of carbon emission factors, the potential of carbon emission reduction and so on, which provides the theoretical and analytical basis for the following research. Secondly, the carbon emissions from industrial fossil energy consumption in Hefei from 2000 to 2014 are measured by carbon emission accounting method, and the present situation of industry development, energy consumption and carbon emission in Hefei are analyzed respectively. Then, LMDI model is constructed to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption in various industries of Hefei. Finally, with the help of GM (1 / 1) model, the carbon emission reduction model is established to predict the pressure and potential of carbon emission reduction in different industries in 2020. Through systematic research, the main conclusion of this paper is that Hefei is still in the middle of industrialization, the industrial structure is unreasonable, the energy structure based on coal has greatly promoted the growth of carbon emissions, the electric power industry, the ferrous metal industry, Six major energy-consuming industries, such as non-metallic industries, continue to play a major role in driving up carbon emissions in Hefei. From the perspective of the factors affecting carbon emissions, the improvement of energy use efficiency, the optimization of internal industrial structure, the adjustment of energy structure, but it is difficult to offset the rapid development of industrial economy to promote the growth of carbon emissions. Power industry is more pressure than other industries to reduce carbon emissions, among which electricity industry and chemical raw material industry should become the focus of carbon emission reduction in the future.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F427;X322

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