济南市城市化与水环境及大气环境耦合关系研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 11:00

本文关键词：济南市城市化与水环境及大气环境耦合关系研究　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着各国城市化进程的发展,城市化与生态环境之间的关系已成为近二十几年来国内外研究的热点。我国自改革开放以来,社会经济快速发展,我国已成为当前世界上城市化发展最为迅速的国家之一,城市化过程中产生的水环境、大气环境、固体废物污染等环境问题日益突出,而生态环境恶化又会反过来制约城市的发展。因此,为了实现城市化与城市环境之间的协调可持续发展,研究城市化与城市环境之间的胁迫与约束机制,分析二者之间的耦合协调关系,对于推进城市化进程,促进城市可持续发展具有重要意义。本论文总结了国内、外城市化系统与环境安全系统中水环境安全系统及大气环境安全系统的理论及实际研究成果。从人口、经济、社会和空间四个方面选取其主要指标,详细分析了济南市1996年-2012年城市化发展概况,并对济南市水环境和大气环境进行了现状调查与评价。本文从济南市实际情况出发,采用频度分析法及专家咨询法分别从人口、经济、空间及社会城市化等四个方面选取城市化水平测度指标,采用PSER框架模型建立了水环境安全及大气环境安全系统评价指标体系。采用熵值法和层次分析法确定了1996年-2012年济南市城市化系统与水环境安全系统及大气环境安全系统各指标权重,得出系统内主要影响因子,并分析了城市化、水环境安全及大气环境安全三系统演变态势。本文采用耦合协调度模型对城市化与水环境安全及大气环境安全进行耦合分析,结果表明城市化综合指数值与水环境安全系统及大气环境安全系统耦合结果随时间变化而变化,具体表现在以下几方面：(1)城市化系统与水环境安全系统耦合结果1996-2012年间,济南市城市化与水环境安全系统的耦合协调度大体成直线增加趋势,经二者耦合趋势线可以看出,二者耦合相关系数r0.9,二者总体耦合效果较好。根据城市化与水环境安全系统耦合协调态势可看出：1996-2012年,济南市城市化与水环境安全系统耦合协调态势经历了五个阶段,分别为：①低度耦合发展期(1996-1997)、②中度失调发展期(1997-2000)、③勉强协调发展期(2000-2004)④中度协调发展期(2004-2008)、⑤高度耦合发展期(2008-2012),2008年之后,济南市城市化水平较高,水环境污染防治措施发挥的作用明显,水环境质量总体保持较好趋势,但也存在着水安全危机,需加强水环境安全预警,实现快速城市化过程中水资源的可持续利用。济南市城市化发展过程中,水环境子系统受城市化系统影响及城市化子系统对水环境安全系统产生的影响不同。1996-2012年,水环境子系统中压力子系统及状态子系统随城市化发展波动幅度较大,表现出极其不稳定状态。城市化子系统中空间城市化对水环境系统影响较大,之后由大到小排列依次为人口城市化、经济城市化和社会城市化。另外,本文分析了小清河济南段水环境质量受济南市城市化发展影响以及小清河济南段睦里庄、还乡店、大码头、辛丰庄四断面水质概况。研究还发现,小清河济南段水环境质量受城市化子系统中空间城市化影响较大,之后影响由高到低排列依次为社会城市化、经济城市化和人口城市化。本文根据多年来小清河水质情况,依据小清河治理背景对济南市小清河治理历程进行列表总结。(2)城市化系统与大气环境安全系统耦合结果按时间序列,济南市城市化与大气环境安全系统的耦合协调度表现为：1996年-2012年期间整体耦合协调度表现出直线增加趋势。根据城市化系统与大气环境安全系统耦合协调态势看出：1996-2012年,两系统耦合协调态势经历了6个阶段,分别为：①低度耦合发展期-严重失调期(1996-1997)、②低度耦合发展期-中度失调期(1997-2000)、③勉强协调发展期(2000-2004)、④中度协调发展期(2004-2007)、⑤高度耦合发展期-良好协调发展期(2007-2010)、⑥优质协调发展期(2010-2012)。2007年之后,随城市化发展,大气环境质量不断提高,城市化与大气环境保护共同步入良性发展阶段。济南市城市化发展过程中,大气环境子系统受城市化系统影响及城市化子系统对大气环境安全系统产生的影响不同。1996-2012年间,大气环境安全系统中压力子系统随城市化发展波动幅度较大；城市化子系统中空间城市化对大气环境安全安全系统影响较大,之后由大到小依次是人口城市化、经济城市化与社会城市化。最后结合济南市实际发展情况,根据济南市城市环境现状调查及城市化发展与水环境及大气环境定量分析中存在的问题,提出了实现济南市城市化发展与城市环境协调可持续发展的措施及建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of the city process, the relationship between the city and the ecological environment has become a hot research at home and abroad in recent decades. Since China's reform and opening up, the rapid development of social economy, China has become the world one of the countries with the fast development of city, the city in the process of water the environment, atmospheric environment, solid waste pollution and other environmental problems have become increasingly prominent, and the deterioration of the ecological environment in turn restricts the development of the city. Therefore, in order to realize the urbanization and city environment between the coordinated and sustainable development of urbanization and city environment between the stress and the restraint mechanism, coordination analysis of the relationship between the two, for to promote the city process, has important significance to promote the sustainable development of the city. This paper summarizes the domestic system of urban water environment security and environmental security system and system The results of atmospheric environmental security system of theoretical and practical research. From the population, economy, the main indicators of the four aspects of society and space, a detailed analysis of Ji'nan city in 1996 -2012 years of development of the city, and the Ji'nan city water environment and atmospheric environment for the investigation and evaluation. This paper from the actual situation of Ji'nan city. Using the frequency analysis method and expert consultation method respectively from the population, economy, selected indicators of city level four aspects of city space and society, establish the evaluation index system of water environment safety and atmospheric environmental security system uses the PSER framework model. In 1996 -2012 Ji'nan city system and each index system of water environment security system and the atmospheric environmental security weight determined by entropy method and AHP, the main influence factor in the system, and the analysis of the city, the water environment safety and atmospheric circulation Border security system evolution. This paper uses the coupling coordination degree model coupling analysis of city atmospheric environment and water environment security and safety, results show that the city changes and comprehensive index system of water environment security system and atmospheric environment safety coupling results vary over time and in the following aspects: (1) city system and water environment security system coupling results from 1996-2012, Ji'nan city and the water environment security system coordination degree there is a linear increase trend, the coupling of the two trend line can be seen, the two coupling correlation coefficient r0.9, the better the two overall coupling effect. According to the city and the water environment security system coordination the situation can be seen: 1996-2012 years, urbanization of Ji'nan City, and water environment security system coordination situation has experienced five stages, respectively: low coupling development (19 96-1997), moderate disorder (1997-2000), the development period of barely coordination development period (2000-2004) of moderate development of the coordination (2004-2008), the highly coupled development period (2008-2012), after 2008, the Ji'nan city level, water environment pollution prevention and control measures play obvious role, overall water quality of the environment to maintain good the trend, but there is also a need to strengthen water security, water environment safety warning, realize the sustainable utilization of water resources in the process of rapid city. The development process of Ji'nan City, the influence of water environment subsystem by system and city urbanization system of water environment security system in different.1996-2012, sub pressure system and subsystem subsystem in city water environment with the development of greater volatility, showed an extremely unstable state. City space city system of influence on water environment system After the big, from big to small order of city population, economy and society of city city. In addition, this paper analyzes the Xiaoqing River water environmental quality in Ji'nan section of Ji'nan city by city and the development of the Ji'nan section of Xiaoqing river Mu Li Zhuang, terminal four, home stores, Xin Feng Zhuang section water quality survey. The study also found that the effect of Xiaoqing River water environmental quality in Ji'nan section of the space of city urbanization subsystem in the larger, the influence from high to low in the order of social economy and city, city of the city population. Based on years of Xiaoqing River water quality situation, based on the background of the list of small Qinghe governance governance process of Xiaoqing River Ji'nan City summed up. (2) city system and system of atmospheric environmental safety coupling results according to time sequence, coupled with the urbanization of Ji'nan City, atmospheric environmental security system coordination degree as follows: during the period 1996 -2012 overall The coupling coordination degree showed a linear increase trend. According to that city system and the atmospheric environmental security system coordination situation 1996-2012, situation of two coupled coordination system has experienced 6 stages, respectively: the low coupling development period - period (1996-1997), a serious imbalance between the low coupling development period (1997-2000 period of moderate disorders), the reluctant coordination development period (2000-2004), moderate (2004-2007), the coordinated development of the highly coupled development period - coordinated development period (2007-2010), quality of the coordinated development of the (2010-2012).2007 years later, with the city development, and constantly improve the quality of atmospheric environment, atmospheric environment protection and city the common into the benign stage of development. The development process of Ji'nan City, atmospheric environmental impact on the system safety system produced by different atmospheric environment between.1996-2012 system and city urbanization system Pressure, subsystem of atmospheric environmental security system with city development fluctuation; city space city subsystem of atmospheric environment security system influence, followed by big to small population of city economy, city and social city. Finally, combined with Ji'nan actual situation, according to the survey Ji'nan City, city environment and city development and water environment and atmospheric environment in the quantitative analysis, proposed the implementation of Ji'nan city development and the sustainable development of city environment measures and suggestions.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X22

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