中俄边境贸易驱动下的区域土地利用演变及模拟研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 16:34

本文关键词：中俄边境贸易驱动下的区域土地利用演变及模拟研究　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：边境城市作为我国“一带一路”的节点和枢纽地区,其特有的空间区位优势不断显现,边境贸易逐渐成为其土地利用变化的主要驱动力。面对新形势下可持续发展的要求,加强边境土地利用变化与边境贸易发展的双向互动视角研究具有重要的现实意义。本文以绥芬河-波格拉尼奇内地区为例,在实地调研基础上,采用地理信息系统的空间分析法、典型相关分析法、logistic回归分析与数学统计方法,揭示绥-波地区土地利用变化、分析贸易发展对土地利用变化的影响,并构建合理的土地利用变化模拟预测模型,可为中俄边境地区调整经济结构与合理规划利用土地资源提供科学依据。本文研究的主要内容与结论如下:(1)基于6期遥感影像的处理分析,从土地利用年均变化强度、地类动态度、地类转变强度及倾向度三个层次对绥-波区域土地利用时空演变过程进行了分析与比较。研究表明:1990年~2016年区域土地利用强度在研究时段内呈升→降→升的趋势,与对外贸易发展速率相吻合。绥-波区域土地利用变化的最主要特征就是建设用地的不断增长与耕地的减少。耕地是建设用地的最主要转入来源,其次为林地。通过区域间的土地利用变化比较则发现波格拉尼奇内与绥芬河市的耕地建设用地的空间变化呈现趋同性,在时间层面则绥芬河市的变化略滞后于波格拉尼奇内市,揭示了地区间贸易对于土地利用变化的影响具有较强的一致性,主要贸易出口区的土地利用变化优先于主要被出口区域。(2)通过对绥芬河市对外贸易额与建设用地变化的相关性分析,建立了曲线回归模型。研究得出建设用地总面积与边境贸易额的相关系数为0.938,城镇村及工矿用地与边境贸易额的相关系数为0.942,显著性水平均远小于0.01,说明绥芬河市建设用地变化与边境贸易额相互影响,具有显著的正相关性。农业效益相比第三产业效益较差,农用地特别是耕地数量明显下降,林地与水体等主要环境用地则变化不大。(3)采用典型相关分析法及二元logistic回归模型,结合贸易情况建立了土地利用变化驱动力因子库。选取1990年~2000年及2000年~2013年两个时间段对绥芬河市土地利用变化驱动力进行分析,查清了土地利用变化与各驱动因子之间关系。在分析不同空间尺度下2011年~2016年绥芬河土地利用变化驱动力的基础上,选取最优空间模拟尺度并进行精度检验。(4)参照绥芬河市历史时期对外贸易和土地利用发展特点,结合当局政策,设定模拟了对外贸易快速发展情景、对外贸易平稳发展情景、双边互惠情景三种未来土地利用情景。构建GM模型预测各地类需求量与CLUE-S土地利用变化模型,实现了对绥芬河市未来土地利用格局变化的模拟预测,研究得出在“对外贸易快速发展情景”下建设用地转入3641.76hm2,土地利用结构变化最为剧烈,而在“双边互惠情景”下生态安全指数为0.869,区域生态风险较高。
[Abstract]:Border city as China's "The Belt and Road" node and the hub location advantages continue to appear, border trade has become one of the main driving forces of land use change. Facing the sustainable development request under the new situation, it has important practical significance to strengthen the border land use change and the development of border trade interaction from the perspective of research. This paper takes Suifenhe - Ranicki Berger in the area as an example, on the basis of field research, using GIS spatial analysis, canonical correlation analysis, logistic regression analysis and mathematical statistics, reveal the changes of land use in the Sui Po, analysis of the impact of changes in trade development on land use, land use change and build a reasonable prediction model, which can provide scientific basis for the adjustment of the economic structure of Sino Russian border area and the reasonable use of land resources in this paper. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) analysis of 6 remote sensing images based on intensity from the annual change of land use, land dynamic degree, to change the strength and orientation of the three levels of analysis and comparison on the Sui - wave region land use spatio-temporal evolution. The research results show: 1990 ~2016 regional land use intensity was reduced to rise, rising trend in the study period, consistent with the development of foreign trade. The rate of Sui - wave of regional land use change of the main characteristics of the construction and reduce with increasing and cultivated land. Cultivated land is the main source of land into construction, then through the forest. Land use change between regions, land construction in Suifenhe city and Ranicki Pogue for spatial variation of similar changes in time, level of Suifenhe city in the city of Ranicki Pogue slightly lags behind, To reveal the regional trade has a strong consistency for the influence of land use change, land use change in the main export area prior to the main export areas. (2) of the city of Suifenhe, the foreign trade volume and the construction land change correlation analysis, curve regression model was established. The results of the construction of the correlation coefficient the total area and border trade volume of 0.938, urban village and industrial correlation coefficient and border trade volume is 0.942, the significant level is far less than 0.01, indicating the construction land change in Suifenhe's border trade and mutual influence, has a significant positive correlation. The agricultural benefit compared to the third industrial agricultural benefit is bad. Especially the quantity of cultivated land decreased, the main environment in forest and water land changed little. (3) by canonical correlation analysis and two binary logistic regression model, combined with the construction of trade The driving forces of land use change factor database. From 1990 ~2000 and 2000 ~2013 year two time analysis of the driving forces of land use change in Suifenhe City, find out the land use change and the driving factors. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the different spatial scales of Suifenhe during 2011 ~2016, the driving forces of land use change on selecting the optimal space scale and simulation accuracy test. (4) according to the history of Suifenhe City Foreign Trade Development and land use characteristics, combined with the government policy, set the scene simulation of the rapid development of foreign trade, foreign trade and stable development of bilateral reciprocal scenarios, three scenarios of future land use scenarios. Construction predicted all kinds of demand and land CLUE-S the change of GM model, realized the simulation and prediction of Suifenhe city in the future land use pattern change, studies in the "foreign trade is fast Under the rapid development scenario, the land use structure changes most severely when the construction land is transferred to 3641.76hm2, while under the "bilateral reciprocity scenario", the ecological safety index is 0.869, and the regional ecological risk is relatively high.

【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2;F752

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