中国绿色增长程度评价及实现路径研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 01:16

  本文关键词：中国绿色增长程度评价及实现路径研究　出处：《大连理工大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 绿色增长 评价指标体系 测度评价 实现路径

【摘要】：面对资源短缺与环境污染等问题的日益凸显,转变经济增长方式己成为了世界各国政府、企业以及社会公众广泛关注的焦点。绿色增长作为一种新型的增长方式在21世纪初应运而生,强调“在追求经济增长和发展的同时,又防止环境恶化、生物多样性丧失和自然资源不可持续利用”,完全符合传统经济增长方式转型的目标与要求,因此得到了国际社会广泛的认可与快速的传播。近年来,以发达国家为代表的各国政府以及各国际组织纷纷开始制定政策、法规与行动方案来推进绿色增长实践,并在全球范围内开启了“绿色新政”的竞争。为推动绿色增长,中国政府已相继开展了建设“生态工业园”、“循环经济”、“低碳城市”试点和构建“资源节约型和环境友好型社会”等一系列谋求绿色发展的国家战略。党的十八大报告强调要“着力推进绿色发展、循环发展、低碳发展”,十八届五中全会公报更是明确提出“十三五”期间要坚持贯彻创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念,表明了中国政府走绿色增长道路的决心。尽管中国在经济增长、资源消耗、污染排放以及政策扶持等方面取得了一定的成绩,但与世界发达国家相比仍有很大的差距。鉴于此,本文将绿色增长研究聚焦在绿色增长程度评价与实现路径上,拟解决的关键问题有：影响绿色增长的因素有哪些?绿色增长程度评价指标体系如何构建?绿色增长程度如何测量?如何寻求实现绿色增长的有效路径?为此,本文进行了一系列深入的研究,所得的主要研究成果有：首先,对中国绿色增长程度评价指标体系进行构建。在现有文献和相关研究的基础上,从社会经济、生活质量、自然资产、生态环境与政策支持五个维度海选了65个指标构成了中国绿色增长评价指标集。在对海选指标进行初筛之后,采用相关分析与变精度粗糙集相结合的方法定量筛选指标,保证了同一准则层内的指标信息没有重复且对评价结果具有显著影响。为避免因过度依赖客观数据而造成误删,根据专家意见进行理性分析,选择性补充了2个高频指标,从而最终构建了一个包含5个准则层、19个指标的中国绿色增长程度评价指标体系。其次,对中国绿色增长程度进行测度与评价分析。针对绿色增长程度具有动态性、多维性与复杂性的特点,构建了结合TOPSIS与灰色关联理论的绿色增长程度评价模型,并利用我国2001-2012年经济、资源、环境、政策等方面的变量数据进行了实证研究,得到了2001-2012年我国绿色增长程度与水平,弥补了现有研究的不足。研究结果表明：中国绿色增长程度呈现缓慢升高的趋势：社会经济与生态环境两个准则层的协调发展对中国绿色增长程度的提高具有显著的影响；同时,自然资产与政策支持准则层的波动性增长影响了整体水平的稳定性,导致中国绿色增长程度出现了短期下滑。最后,对中国绿色增长实现路径进行选择研究。绿色增长是一个由众多不同属性子系统相互作用而组成的复杂巨系统,要想更为准确地寻求它的实现路径,需从系统、动态的角度进行剖析。以中国绿色增长程度评价指标体系为依据,运用系统动力学理论,分析社会经济、生活质量、自然资产、生态环境与政策支持等子系统间的因果关系,确定各变量指标间的数学表达式,建立中国绿色增长系统的动力学模型,通过主要参数的调控,模拟得出四种情景下的绿色增长实现路径,即自然发展模式、高速发展模式、保护发展模式与协同发展模式。通过比较分析发现,路径四：协同发展模式的效果较好,它兼顾了经济-资源-环境-生活-政策的协调发展,体现了快速增长且低消耗、低污染的增长方式,为我国经济的绿色增长提供了较为可行的发展模式。
[Abstract]:In the face of the shortage of resources and environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent, the transformation of economic growth mode has become the focus of world governments, enterprises and the public attention. Green growth as a new growth mode came into being at the beginning of twenty-first Century, stressed that "in the pursuit of economic growth and development, and to prevent the deterioration of the environment, is not sustainable" the loss of biodiversity and natural resources, fully meet the goals and requirements of the traditional economic growth mode transformation, so it has been widely recognized in international society and quickly spread. In recent years, the developed countries represented by governments and international organizations have begun to formulate policies, regulations and action plan to promote green growth practice, and opened a "Green New Deal" competition in the global scope. In order to promote green growth, China government has carried out the construction of students " State Industrial Park "," circular economy "," low-carbon city "and" national strategic pilot construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society "and a series of seeking green development. The eighteen Party Congress stressed the need to focus on promoting green development, development cycle, low carbon development", it is clear that the the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee bulletin "13th Five-Year" period to adhere to innovation, harmony, green, open, shared development idea, that the government China go green growth path determination. Although Chinese in economic growth, resource consumption, pollution emissions and policy support and other aspects have made certain achievements, but there is still a large gap compared with developed countries in the world in view of this, this paper will focus on research and implementation path of green growth evaluation in green growth degree, the key problems to solve: effects of green growth for what is known as the green? How to construct the evaluation index system of the degree of growth? How to measure the degree of green growth? How to find effective ways to achieve green growth? Therefore, this paper carried out a series of in-depth research, the main research results obtained are as follows: firstly, the evaluation index system of green growth China construction. Based on the existing literature and the research on from the social, economy, quality of life, natural assets, ecological environment and policy support of the five dimensions of selected 65 indicators form the China green growth evaluation index set. After the audition screening method of quantitative indicators, combined with rough set by correlation analysis and variable precision screening indicators, indicators to ensure the same information in the rule layer did not repeat and the evaluation results have significant effects. In order to avoid accidentally deleted due to excessive dependence on objective data, according to expert opinion analysis, selection Selective Supplement 2 high-frequency indicators, and finally construct a contains 5 criteria layer, 19 indicators Chinese green growth evaluation index system. Secondly, analyze the measurement and evaluation of China green growth degree. It is dynamic for green growth degree, characteristics of multidimensional and complexity, construct the combination the evaluation of green growth degree TOPSIS and grey theory model, and the use of 2001-2012 in China economy, resources, environment, and other aspects of the policy variables for the empirical research, the 2001-2012 of China's green growth degree and level, to make up for the lack of existing research. The results show that: Chinese showed slow growth of green rising trend: the coordinated development of social economy and ecological environment of the two criterion layers had a significant impact on the growth of green Chinese increased; at the same time, the natural assets and government Policy fluctuation support criterion layer growth and stability of the overall level of impact, resulting in a short-term decline in Chinese green growth. Finally, choose to study China green growth path. Green growth is a system composed of various attributes of the interaction of a complex system, in order to more accurately seeking to achieve its path, from the system, analyzes the dynamic point of view. The evaluation index system Chinese green growth degree as the basis, using the theory of system dynamics, the analysis of social economy, the quality of life, natural assets, the causal relationship between the subsystems such as ecological environment and policy support, determine the mathematical expression of the variable index, dynamics to establish the model of Chinese green growth system, controlled by the main parameters of the simulated four scenarios green growth path, namely the natural pattern of development, high speed The mode of development, protection and development mode and cooperative development model. Through the comparative analysis found that the path of the four: good collaborative development model, which take into account the coordinated development of economy - resources - environment - Life - policy, reflecting the rapid growth and low consumption, low pollution and growth, provides a feasible mode for development green economic growth in China.

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.5
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本文编号：1403286