新疆未利用土地开发评价与动态变化研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 14:21

本文选题：新疆 + 未利用土地　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：对新疆未利用土地进行合理分区与开发,不仅可以高效利用新疆宝贵的土地资源,而且还能够改善新疆的生态环境、实现新疆未利用土地的潜在价值。本文结合可持续发展理论与水土资源承载力、系统论与水土资源耦合关系、比较优势理论,区位理论的指导下,借助ArcGIS空间分析、数理统计等软件平台,综合分析地貌、经济区位等对新疆土地格局及其变化的影响,对新疆未利用土地进行分级、评价与动态变化模拟。主要研究结果如下:1:首先界定本文研究的“未利用土地”,再从“未利用土地”的自然属性角度出发,采用小波分析构造新疆各区域气温、降水的分布图;以新疆水土资源综合承载力及耦合情况及各县(市)级区域未利用土地面积为分析数据,通过FCM与竞争型神经网络模型对县级区域未利用土地情况进行聚类分级与结果修正,其中选择五类指标聚类中心作为最佳未利用土地分区聚类指标,最终得到新疆地区未利用土地类型分类后的各指标等级结果表。结果显示一级的未利用土地中难开发的沙地与盐碱地较少,而有利于开发的荒草地与沼泽地较多;二级和三级的未利用土地中裸地占有较大比例;四级和五级以沙地为主。2:通过主成分分析和熵值法分析方法的融合,以新疆历年统计年鉴数据及土地利用数据为研究数据,以优先选择已利用耕地牧地综合状况较好、地区综合情况有利于宜耕宜牧未利用土地开发为目的构建以县(市)为评价单元的评价体系,得出新疆未利用土地宜耕地、宜牧的空间分布结果,由空间分布图可以看出,宜耕宜牧地主要集中分布在新疆的北部、中部及西南部区域。为了更好地对未利用地可开发程度进行分析,建立了基于FCM模糊分类中心和更为有效的竞争型神经网络的分类中心为依据的模糊综合识别模型,由所得结果的可开发程度等级空间分布可以得出,一级分类占有新疆绝大地方,分布于新疆中部、西南部和北部。二级分类主要分布在新疆北部和西部边缘地带。然而新疆的西南地区以三级和四级分类为主,该区域新疆西南部年降水量比较少,且主要是南疆盆地地形为主。五级分类的空间分布属于新疆的高山冰川地带,可利用程度极低。并对霍城县进行县级未利用土地评价,细化不同尺度的未利用土地评价指标,对未利用土地进行分级。3:本文最终通过CLUE-S与Logistic模型模拟新疆全区的未来土地利用变化情况。其中针对未利用土地的开发情况,在整个模拟过程中,未利用土地之间限制为不能相互变更,且其它非未利用土地也无法变更为未利用土地。从结果可以看出荒草地的变更量最大,其次是裸土地,之后依次为盐碱地、沙地和沼泽地。该数据也进一步说明未利用土地的变更和规划利用是土地类型本身特征、社会经济发展的要求以及生态环境因素综合作用的结果。
[Abstract]:The rational zoning and development of unused land in Xinjiang can not only efficiently utilize the valuable land resources in Xinjiang, but also improve the ecological environment of Xinjiang and realize the potential value of unused land in Xinjiang.Under the guidance of the theory of sustainable development and the carrying capacity of soil and water resources, the coupling relationship between system theory and soil and water resources, the theory of comparative advantage and the theory of location, the geomorphology is comprehensively analyzed with the help of ArcGIS spatial analysis, mathematical statistics and other software platforms.The influence of economic zone on the land pattern and its change in Xinjiang is analyzed. The unused land in Xinjiang is classified, evaluated and simulated dynamically.The main research results are as follows: firstly, the "unused land" studied in this paper is defined, and then the distribution map of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang is constructed by wavelet analysis from the natural attribute of "unused land".Taking the comprehensive carrying capacity and coupling situation of water and soil resources in Xinjiang and the unused land area of each county (city) level as the analysis data, the paper classifies and corrects the unused land situation of county level area by FCM and competitive neural network model.The cluster center of five types of indicators is selected as the best cluster index of unused land zoning, and finally the result table of each index grade after classification of unused land type in Xinjiang is obtained.The results showed that the undeveloped sandy land and saline-alkali land were less in the first class of unused land, while the barren grassland and marsh land were more favorable for exploitation, and the bare land occupied a large proportion of the unused land in the second and third grade.Through the combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and entropy analysis method, taking the statistical yearbook data and land use data of Xinjiang over the years as the research data, the comprehensive condition of the preferentially selected cultivated land and pastures is better.The comprehensive situation of the region is conducive to the construction of the evaluation system with county (city) as the evaluation unit for the purpose of land exploitation of suitable ploughing and grazing, and the results of spatial distribution of the unused arable land and suitable pasturage in Xinjiang can be seen from the spatial distribution map.Suitable farming and grazing land are mainly distributed in the northern, central and southwest regions of Xinjiang.In order to better analyze the degree of exploitation of unused land, a fuzzy comprehensive recognition model based on FCM fuzzy classification center and more effective competitive neural network is established.It can be concluded from the spatial distribution of the degree of exploitation of the obtained results that the primary classification occupies the vast majority of Xinjiang, and is distributed in the central, southwest and northern parts of Xinjiang.The secondary classification is mainly distributed in the northern and western margin of Xinjiang.However, the southwest of Xinjiang is mainly classified into three and four classes. The annual precipitation in the southwest of Xinjiang is relatively small, and it is mainly the topography of the southern Xinjiang basin.The spatial distribution of the five-level classification belongs to the alpine glacier zone of Xinjiang, and its availability is very low.The evaluation of unused land at county level in Huocheng County was carried out to refine the evaluation indexes of unused land on different scales and to grade unused land. 3. Finally, this paper simulated the future land use change in Xinjiang by CLUE-S and Logistic models.According to the development of unused land, in the whole simulation process, the unused land is limited to not changing each other, and other unused land can not be changed to unused land.It can be seen from the results that the change of wasteland is the largest, followed by bare land, followed by saline-alkali land, sandy land and marsh land.The data also further shows that the change and planning of unused land is the result of the characteristics of land types, the requirements of social and economic development and the comprehensive effects of ecological and environmental factors.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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