要素禀赋变化、技术进步偏向与农业经济增长研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 17:04

  本文关键词：要素禀赋变化、技术进步偏向与农业经济增长研究　出处：《华中农业大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 农业要素禀赋 农业技术进步偏向 农业经济增长 时空特征 耦合协调 全要素生产率

【摘要】：农业要素禀赋条件变化是分析我国农业经济问题的逻辑起点,也是决定农业经济增长的基础因素。长期以来,“人多地少”反映了我国农业要素禀赋的基本状况,伴随着我国农业发展,这种状况慢慢地发生了改变。我国“人口红利”优势正逐步消失,农村劳动力转移速度加快,农村青壮年劳动力变得日益稀缺,劳动力成本快速上升。新世纪以来,农林牧渔业从业人数由2000年的3.28亿人减少至2011年的2.74亿人。从农作物总播种面积看,改革开放以来,其总趋势呈现出增长趋势,由1981年的14583.77万hm2增长至2011年的16228.32万hm2。农业的快速发展为其自身积累了大量的资本,1997年以来,农业资本存量的增长速度明显提升,1997—2011年间年均增长311.94亿元,2011年达到了6259.71亿元。与此同时,我国农业领域的技术创新取得巨大进步,现代化新技术被广泛应用于农业生产实践,技术进步逐步成为推动我国农业经济增长的重要力量。根据诱致性技术创新理论,农业要素禀赋的变化将会引起农业技术进步发生改变。那么改革开放以来我国农业要素禀赋具体发生了怎样的变化?各地区间存在何种差异?在农业要素禀赋发生变化的背景下,我国农业技术进步具体呈现出何种偏向性?在农业要素禀赋发生变化、农业技术进步存在偏向的情况下,两者间的耦合协调关系表现出何种变化特征?农业技术进步偏向及其与要素禀赋的适配度对我国农业经济增长又产生了怎样的影响?本文将对上述问题逐一展开分析。本文首先以要素禀赋理论为依据,在借鉴已有相关研究的基础上,从时间和空间两个维度对改革开放以来我国农业要素禀赋变化特征进行了分析。随后采用扩展的DEA-Malmquis指数度量的全要素生产率(TFP)分解法,测度了我国全国及省际农业技术进步的偏向性。然后,运用耦合协调模型分析了1981—2011年我国农业技术进步与要素禀赋的耦合协调度及其地区差异。其次,构建农业要素禀赋与经济增长的脱钩模型,检验了农业劳动力要素、资本要素及土地要素与经济增长间的脱钩关系。再次,运用索洛余值法表征的农业全要素生产率推导了农业要素禀赋变化、技术进步偏向与经济增长间的关系,并运用相关数据进行了实证分析。最后对全文进行了总结,提出了一些针对性的政策建议。本研究主要得出以下结论:第一,总体上我国各农业要素比重相当,农业资金要素比重略高。从各要素波动状况来看,农业资金要素结构指数波动最为明显,而土地要素结构指数则最为稳定。具体到各地区而言,农业要素禀赋的变化则存在一定差异;改革开放以来,我国农业要素结构存在显著的空间正相关性。其中,农业劳动力要素的空间正相关性最为突出,农业资本要素和劳动力要素的全局自相关性均呈下降趋势,而土地要素结构指数较为稳定;我国农业要素禀赋结构呈现出局部的时空差异,部分地区间农业土地要素结构指数的空间差异呈现出扩大趋势。第二,1982年以来我国各地区的农业技术进步整体上呈现出一定的偏向性。三大区域相比,我国东部地区的农业进步偏向性最为明显,西部地区的农业技术进步偏向性阻碍了农业生产率的提高;整体上我国的农业技术进步呈现出节约资本要素的特点。我国东部地区的农业技术进步整体偏向于节约资本要素,中部地区的农业技术进步在20世纪80年代偏向于节约劳动力要素,此后则偏向于节约资本要素,而西部地区农业技术进步的要素偏向性较不稳定;改革开放初期,多数地区的农业技术进步是无偏的或偏向于节约土地要素。2002年以来,农业技术呈中性的地区逐渐减少,农业技术进步偏向于节约资本或者劳动力要素的地区越来越多。第三,我国的农业技术进步与要素禀赋不完全耦合,各地区间存在一定差异。农业要素禀赋结构升级的速度滞后于农业技术进步的速度,两者间的耦合性不容乐观,且呈现出“u”型的变化趋势,两者间的耦合协调关系有了较大程度的改善;各地区间农业技术进步和要素禀赋的耦合性及耦合协调性存在一定差异。2011年,北京和西藏两地的农业技术进步与要素禀赋仍处于低水平耦合阶段;目前,我国多数地区的农业技术进步和要素禀赋的耦合协调关系属于中度耦合协调型,仅江苏、山东、河南、广东四省为高度耦合协调型。第四,在全国层面上,1982—2011年间农业资本、劳动力要素结构指数与农业经济增长的脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主,而土地要素结构指数与农业经济增长的脱钩性略偏向于强脱钩。省际层面上看,农业劳动力结构指数与农业经济增长为强脱钩的地区有所减少,其分布在不断向华东和西南地区集中;农业资本结构指数与农业经济增长间的脱钩类型在1995年前后发生了变化;1998年以来,农业土地结构指数与农业经济增长间为强脱钩的地区逐渐减少,而呈弱脱钩关系的地区有所增加。第五,改革开放以来,我国农业资本与劳动力要素之间的替代弹性小于1,两者之间是互补的;农业劳动力技术进步效率增长要快于农业资本技术进步效率增长。在包含农业资本存量和劳动力两种要素的条件下,我国的农业技术进步偏向于资本要素,但也呈现出一定的阶段性特征。农业资本要素效率的下降抑制了农业全要素生产率的增长,而农业劳动力要素效率的提高促进了我国农业全要素生产率的增长。近些年来我国农业技术进步偏向于资本要素,在一定程度上推动了我国农业全要素生产率的增长,而农业技术进步偏向与农业要素禀赋变化的低耦合度阻碍了我国农业经济增长。本研究可能的创新之处有以下三点:第一,本研究以农业要素禀赋变化为逻辑起点对我国农业技术进步偏向和农业经济增长问题展开分析,从源头上对相关问题进行更深入的剖析。已有的大部分研究主要关注于单一一种要素变化所产生的影响,忽视了不同种类农业要素的相对变化可能对农业技术进步偏向和经济增长的影响更为深远。与同类研究相比,本研究的逻辑起点可能更加接近于我国农业要素变化的客观事实,对于相关问题的分析更加准确。第二,应用扩展的DEA-Malmquis指数度量的全要素生产率指数分解法对我国省际层面农业技术进步的偏向性进行了全面的分析。在农业技术进步研究方面,仅有极个别研究涉及到了两种要素在内的农业技术进步偏向性,但也都没有考虑省际间可能存在的差异性。本文则是对包含土地、资本和劳动力三种要素下农业技术进步的要素偏向性进行了测度,并分析了其时空变化特征,与已有研究相比,本文的研究有助于对我国农业技术进步偏向性形成更为全面的认识。第三,现有研究在对农业经济增长的影响因素进行分析时,强调的是要素投入或技术进步的贡献,没有考察技术进步偏向性可能产生的影响。本研究利用索洛余值法衡量的全要素生产率增长率指数分解法,将影响农业全要素生产率增长的因素分解为要素效率增长效应、技术进步偏向效应及技术进步偏向与要素禀赋的综合效应,并采用相关数据进行了实证分析,在一定程度上弥补了现有研究的不足之处。
[Abstract]:The change of agricultural endowments is the logical starting point of China's agricultural economy problem, basic factors also determine the agricultural economic growth. For a long time, "little people" reflects the basic status of agriculture endowment in our country, with the development of China's agriculture, this situation is slowly changed. China's population "dividend advantage is gradually disappearing, speed up the transfer of rural labor, rural labor force has become increasingly scarce, rapidly rising labor costs. Since the new century, the number of employees in animal husbandry and fishery by 2000 328 million people reduced to 274 million in 2011. The total sown area of crops, since the reform and opening up, the general trend shows the growth trend, from 1981 145 million 837 thousand and 700 to 2011 hm2 growth of 162 million 283 thousand and 200 hm2. the rapid development of agriculture has accumulated a large amount of capital for its own, since 1997, the agricultural capital deposit The growth rate increased 1997 to 2011 years the average annual growth of 31 billion 194 million yuan, in 2011 reached 625 billion 971 million yuan. At the same time, the great progress of technology innovation of our country agriculture, the modernization of the new technology is widely used in agricultural production, technological progress and gradually become an important force in promoting China's agricultural economic growth based on technological innovation. The theory of induced changes in agriculture, factor endowment will cause agricultural technology progress change. So since the reform and opening up of China's agriculture endowment specific what happens? What are the differences between different regions? Changes in agricultural resources under the background of Agricultural Technology progress in our country and show what specific bias changes? In the agricultural factor endowment, agricultural technical progress bias conditions, both the coordination of relationship between coupling displays what characteristics of agriculture? Technical progress bias and factor endowment fit on agricultural economic growth in China and what impact? This article will focus on the above-mentioned problems are analyzed. Based on factor endowment theory, on the basis of existing research, from the time and space of two dimensions of resources since the reform and opening up change of agricultural elements in China are analyzed. Then the total factor productivity by using the extended DEA-Malmquis index metric (TFP) decomposition method, bias measure of China's national and provincial agricultural technology progress. Then, using the coupling coordination model between 1981 - 2011 in China Agricultural Technology Progress and factor endowment coupling the coordination degree and area. Secondly, the construction of agricultural endowments and economic growth in the agricultural labor force decoupling model, test factors, capital and land and economic growth. Decoupling relationship. Thirdly, agricultural TFP is the Solow residual value method characterized agriculture endowment change, technological progress and economic growth relationship oriented, and makes an empirical analysis by using relevant data. Finally summarizes the full text, put forward policy recommendations for some of the needle. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the general elements of China's agricultural proportion is slightly higher. The proportion of elements of agricultural funds from various elements of fluctuation, elements of agricultural capital structure index fluctuation is most obvious, and the structure index of land is the most stable. Specific to the various regions, changes in agricultural factor endowment is different; the reform and opening up since the structure of China's agricultural factors have significant positive spatial correlation. The agriculture labor force spatial correlation is most prominent, agricultural capital and labor elements The elements of the global autocorrelation were decreased, and the structure index of land elements is relatively stable; China's agricultural factor endowment structure presents the spatial and temporal differences of local spatial difference between regions, some elements of agricultural land structure index showed a tendency to expand. In 1982 second, in every area of our country presents the overall progress of agricultural technology some bias. Compared to the three regions, the eastern region of China's agricultural progress bias is most obvious, the progress of agricultural technology in the western region tend to hinder the improvement of agricultural productivity; China's agricultural technological progress shows that the overall characteristics of saving capital. East China Agricultural Technology Progress overall in favor of saving capital, technological advances in agriculture in central region in 1980s in favor of saving labor, then tend to save the capital, and the West The elements of regional agricultural technological progress bias is not stable; the beginning of reform and opening up, the progress of agricultural technology in most regions are unbiased or biased in favor of saving land since.2002, agricultural technology neutral area gradually reduced, the progress of agricultural technology in favor of saving capital or labor more and more areas. Third, endowment progress with the elements of agricultural technology in China is not fully coupled, there are some differences between the various regions. The speed of agricultural factor endowment structure upgrading lag in agricultural technology progress speed, coupling between the two is not optimistic, and showing a "U" trend, the coordination relationship between the two is improved greatly; coupling and coupling coordination of regional agricultural technology progress and factor endowment differences exist in.2011, the progress of agricultural technology in Beijing and Tibet both with intrinsic factors Fu is still in a low coupling stage; at present, the coupling coordination between the endowment of agricultural technology progress and elements of the majority of our region is a moderate coordination type, only Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Guangdong province for four highly coupled coordination. Fourth, at the national level, 1982 - 2011 years of agricultural capital, labor structure index and agricultural economic growth from state to weak decoupling, and land structure index and agricultural economic growth from slightly in favor of strong decoupling. Provincial level, the index of agricultural labor force structure and agricultural economic growth in the area declined to strong decoupling, continue to focus on its distribution in the East and southwest regions; decoupling the type of agricultural capital structure index and agricultural economic growth between the changes before and after 1995; since 1998, agricultural land structure index and agricultural economic growth to strong decoupling Area gradually reduced, and a weak decoupling relationship between regions increased. Fifth, since the reform and opening up, China's agriculture between capital and labor elements of the elasticity of substitution is less than 1, between the two are complementary; increase the efficiency of agricultural labor technological progress is faster than the efficiency of agricultural technological progress in capital growth. Including agricultural capital stock and labor two elements under the condition of agricultural technology progress in China in favor of capital, but also showed a certain stage characteristics. The decline of agricultural capital efficiency inhibited the growth of agricultural total factor productivity, and promote China's agricultural TFP growth of agricultural labor force to improve the efficiency of Agricultural Technology in recent years. Progress in our country in favor of capital, to a certain extent, promote China's agricultural TFP growth and agricultural technological progress bias and agricultural factors Low coupling endowment change hindered the agricultural economic growth in China. The possible innovations of this research are the following three points: first, the research on agriculture changes of elements as the logical starting point to analyze China's agricultural technological progress bias and agricultural economic growth, for more in-depth analysis of the problem from the source. Most existing studies mainly focus on the impact of a change in a single factor, influence the relative change of different types of agricultural factors ignored possible on agricultural technological progress bias and economic growth is more profound. Compared with similar research, the logical starting point of this study may be more close to the objective facts of agricultural factors change in our country. For the analysis of issues related to more accurate. Second, on China's provincial level agricultural TFP index using the extended DEA-Malmquis index metric decomposition method The bias of technological progress are analyzed. The research progress of agricultural technology, agricultural technology progress only a few studies related to the two elements, the bias, but also did not consider the differences may exist among provinces. This paper is to contain elements of agricultural technology progress of land, capital and labor three elements under the bias of the measure, and analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics, compared with the previous studies, this research contributes to the progress of agricultural technology in China tend to form a more comprehensive understanding. Third, the existing research in the analysis of the factors affecting the growth of agricultural economy, is emphasized inputs or the contribution of technological progress, technical progress bias did not examine the effect possible. This study use the TFP growth rate of the Solow residual measure index decomposition method, the influence of Agriculture The factor of total factor productivity growth is divided into factor efficiency growth effect, technological progress bias effect and technological progress bias and the comprehensive effect of factor endowments, and related data is used for empirical analysis, to a certain extent, to make up for the shortcomings of existing research.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F224;F323
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本文编号：1360651