“全面二孩”政策下重庆市基础教育阶段学龄人口与教育资源需求预测

发布时间：2018-01-23 11:27

本文关键词： “全面二孩”政策基础教育人口预测学龄人口教育资源需求　出处：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：为进一步缓解我国老龄化程度加剧,劳动力短缺等社会问题。2015年10月十八届五中全会提出“坚持计划生育的基本国策,完善人口发展战略,全面实施一对夫妇可生育两个孩子政策”(简称“全面二孩”政策),并决定从2016年1月1日起正式实施。“全面二孩”政策颁布有助于缓解我国老龄化程度加剧、劳动力短缺,有助于减轻子女赡养老人的压力,进而促进整个社会进步和家庭幸福。伴随着“全面二孩”政策的落地,重庆市将迎来人口的增长。这将对重庆市社会生产生活产生巨大影响,尤其是基础教育。“全面二孩”政策所引起的学龄人口的变化,也必将影响基础教育阶段教育资源需求变化。若在配套硬件设施或日常管理中出现问题,将会影响基础教育质量,更影响学生的成长。准确地预测是为避免教育资源出现资源配置风险,因此提前作好基础教育规划显得十分重要和紧迫。对人口政策调整对基础教育资源需求的影响进行预测,这是为了避免基础教育资源供给的不足或过剩,为下一步制定教育发展规划提供依据。本文主要运用文献研究法、调查研究法和统计分析法等研究方法,基于重庆市第六次人口普查数据,运用我国人口学中常用的“多区域离散型人口发展模型”,通过MATLAB软件编程,实现对“全面二孩”政策实施后2016—2035年重庆市基础教育阶段学龄人口的预测。接着,根据学龄人口的预测结果与入学率的变化情况,对在校生人数变化情况进行预测。然后,以我国和重庆市现行基础教育阶段办学标准为依据,对教育资源的需求量进行预测。根据在峰值时和2015年现有的教育资源进行比对,计算出教育资源的供需缺口。最后得出研究结论,并提出对策建议。本文的研究重点是学龄人口和教育资源需求量的预测。难点是如何在众多人口预测模型中选择最适合重庆市人口发展的模型进行研究,模型中各参数的设置,以及运用该模型计算得到学龄人口的预测结果。研究结果显示:(1)重庆市学前、小学、初中、普通高中学龄人口,分别从2019年、2022年、2028年、2031年开始迅速增长。(2)重庆市学前学龄人口呈“升—降”的“A”字形变化趋势,在2022年达到峰值1114402人;2016年学前学龄人口最少,为871482人。小学学龄人口呈“降—升—降”的呈倒“N”字形变化趋势,在2027年达到峰值2197945人,在2020年小学学龄人口最少,为1718051人。初中学龄人口呈“升—降—再升—再降”的“M”形变化趋势,在2031年达到峰值1111049人;在2024年初中学龄人口最少,为838271人。高中学龄人口呈“降—升—再降—再升”的“W”形变化趋势,在2034年达到最大值1110153人,在2027年高中学龄人口最少,为837505人。之后,由于育龄妇女数量减少和生育势能释放影响,出生人数将缓慢下降,导致学龄人口也将逐年下降。(3)小学、初中、普通高中现有的教育资源足以应对“全面二孩”政策实施后,在校学生数在高峰时对教育资源的需求。而学前教育资源存在巨大的缺口,学前教育资源需求量在2024年达到峰值时与2015年实际教育资源相比,教职工供需缺口为102984人,专任教师缺口为67930人,校舍面积缺口为576.43万平方米,图书册数缺口为283.93万册。最后,根据预测结果提出四条对策建议。一是各区县应及时预测在校学生规模变化趋势,因地制宜统筹资源配置;二是适度扩大教师规模,多渠道解决师资短缺;三是统筹调配现有教育资源,重点解决学前教育发展难题;四是加大基础教育经费投入,拓宽教育经费补充渠道等对策建议。本文的研究新意在于:一是首次将“多区域离散型人口发展模型”应用于教育领域的学龄人口的预测中。二是从研究对象上,以往研究大多选取全国进行研究,而本文选取重庆市这一区域来进行研究,区域范围相比于全国而言更小,使研究具有针对性。
[Abstract]:In order to further alleviate the aging degree of China's labor shortage intensified, social problems such as.2015 in October the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee put forward the "adhere to the basic national policy of family planning, improve the population development strategy, the full implementation of a couple can have two children policy" (hereinafter referred to as "the two child policy), and decided from January 1, 2016 onwards." two children "policy helps to alleviate the aging degree of China's labor shortage intensified, helps relieve filial pressure, and promote the whole society and family happiness. With" full floor two child policy, Chongqing will usher in the growth of the population. This will have a huge impact the life of social production in Chongqing City, especially the basic education. "All change two child policy caused by the school-age population, will also affect the basic education resources demand Change. If there is a problem in supporting hardware facilities or in daily management, affecting the quality of basic education will affect the growth of students. More accurate prediction is to avoid the risk of educational resources allocation of resources, so the planning well ahead of time in basic education is very important and urgent. To predict the influence of population policy adjustment to the needs of basic education resources this is, in order to avoid the shortage of basic education resource supply or excess, provide the basis for the education development plan for the next step. This paper mainly uses the literature research method, survey method and statistical analysis method, based on the sixth census data of Chongqing City, using China's demographic commonly used "discrete multi regional population the development model, through MATLAB software programming, implementation of the" comprehensive two child policy implementation from 2016 to 2035 in Chongqing city of basic education stage school-age population The prediction of changes. Then, according to the prediction results of school-age population and enrollment rate, to predict the change of the number of students. Then, with China and Chongqing city the current stage of basic education education standards as the basis, forecast the demand for education resources. According to the comparison in the peak value in 2015 and the existing education calculate the resources, education resources supply and demand gap. Finally draw the conclusion, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. This study focuses on the prediction of the school-age population and education resources demand. The key problem is how to select the most suitable model in Chongqing city population development model of population prediction, the parameters in the model are set up, and using this model to calculate the prediction results of the school-age population. The results showed that: (1) Chongqing City preschool, primary school, junior high school, senior high school age population, respectively, from 2019, 2022, 2028 In 2031, began to grow rapidly. (2) Chongqing City preschool school-age population is "up - down" like "A" trend, in 2022 reached a peak of 1114402 in 2016; preschool school-age population at least 871482 people. The population was reduced primary school age - up - down "inverted" N "shape the change trend, in 2027 reached a peak of 2197945 in 2020, primary school age population of at least 1718051 people, junior high school. The school-age population increased - down - up again and again" and "M" trend, in 2031 reached a peak of 1111049 in 2024; the junior high school age population, 838271 people. High school the population was down - up - down - up "and" W "trend, in 2034 reached a maximum of 1110153 people, high school in 2027 at least 837505 of school-age population, the number of women of child-bearing age. Later, due to reduced fertility and potential energy release, the number of births will Slow down, resulting in the school-age population will decline year by year. (3) primary school, junior high school, with a full two child policy implementation of existing educational resources to senior high school, the demand of educational resources in the number of students at the peak. And there is a huge gap in resources of Preschool education, preschool education demand amount of resources compared with 2015 the actual educational resources in 2024 reached the peak, the gap between supply and demand for staff of 102984 people, 67930 people full-time teachers gap, gap building area of 5 million 764 thousand and 300 square meters, the gap is 2 million 839 thousand and 300 copies of copies of books. Finally, put forward four suggestions according to the prediction results. One is the county should be timely forecast the scale of students overall trend. The allocation of resources according to local conditions; two is to expand the scale of teachers, multi channels to solve the shortage of teachers; the three is the deployment of existing education resources co-ordination, focus on solving the problem of preschool education development; four Increase investment in basic education, broaden the education funding channels to supplement the countermeasures. The research ideas of this paper lies in: one is the first to predict the development model of "discrete multi regional population in the field of education of school-age population. The two is from the object of study, previous studies mostly selected national research, this paper selects Chongqing this area of the city to carry out the research area compared with the whole nation is smaller, that the study is targeted.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G639.2;C924.21

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