专利价值的评估模型及数值模拟分析

发布时间：2018-07-25 06:03

【摘要】：随着知识经济的发展,专利作为一项重要的无形资产受到了越来越多的关注。但专利价值评估和数值的实现仍旧是学术界和实业界关注的热点问题。过去的研究往往会因为模型过于复杂而无法实现,或者模型假设过于简单不符合现实情况,从而都不能很好的反映专利价值。同时1996年的新公司法要求无形资产在财务报表上反映其公平的价值,因此,研究专利价值评估和数值的实现具有特别重要的理论和实际意义。本文主要建立了专利价值评估模型并进行了数值模拟,然后讨论专利价值的决定因素。文中采用了实物期权方法,试图建立一个考虑了未来的不确定性的专利估值的理论模型。在这个模型中,主要是通过随机过程对变量进行估计来反映未来的不确定性的。本文认为专利的价值不是项目的价值,而应该是项目在有无专利保护下价值的差额。因此在这个理论模型的基础上,本文试图利用蒙特卡洛模拟的方法对有无专利保护两种情况下的研发项目价值进行模拟,通过有专利保护的项目和无专利保护的项目的价值差额来反映专利自身的价值。在此基础上,对这些影响专利价值的因素进行了敏感性分析。通过敏感性分析比较判断出总投资成本,净现流,波动率和贴现率,无专利保护的项目的市场份额这几个因素对于专利价值的影响比较大。而漂移率,突发事件的概率和净现流乘数对专利价值的影响都是比较小的。
[Abstract]:With the development of knowledge economy, patent as an important intangible asset has been paid more and more attention. However, the evaluation and realization of patent value is still a hot issue in academia and industry. Past studies often because the model is too complex to be implemented, or the model assumption is too simple and not in line with the actual situation, so it can not reflect the value of the patent very well. At the same time, the new company law in 1996 requires intangible assets to reflect their fair value in financial statements. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the evaluation and realization of patent value. In this paper, the evaluation model of patent value is established and numerical simulation is carried out, and then the determinants of patent value are discussed. In this paper, the real option method is used to establish a theoretical model of patent valuation which takes into account the uncertainty of the future. In this model, variables are estimated by stochastic processes to reflect the uncertainty in the future. This paper holds that the value of patent is not the value of project, but the difference of value of project under patent protection. Therefore, based on this theoretical model, this paper attempts to use Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the value of R & D projects under the two conditions of patent protection. The value of the patent itself is reflected by the difference between the value of the patented item and the non-patented item. On this basis, the sensitivity of these factors affecting the value of patent is analyzed. The sensitivity analysis shows that the total investment cost, net current, volatility and discount rate, and the market share of the project without patent protection have great influence on the patent value. However, the drift rate, the probability of unexpected events and the net current multiplier have little effect on the patent value.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F204;F224

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