基于牛顿模型的港口腹地划分研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 08:55

本文选题：腹地划分 + 港口规划　；参考：《大连海事大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 无论是传统经济还是所谓的新经济,也无论信息技术如何发展,商品的流通都离不开港口,世界贸易最终还是必须通过港口来实现。回看改革开放30年,对外开放的窗口体现在中国版图上的就是一个一个的港口,国务院公布的中国第一批14个开放城市全部是沿海港口城市,中国港口的发展也可以说就是中国对外开放的缩影。现在,中国由南至北的海岸线上,遍布大大小小各类港口,每一个港口都是一个经济实体,既承接着国内国际的商业贸易——承担了我国进出口货运总量80-90%、装卸了95%的进口原油和99%的进口铁矿石,也引领着本地经济,港口经济已经成为现代中国经济构成中必不可少的部分。在港口规划中,港口腹地规模分析是必不可少的先决条件和特殊要求。在港口建设过程中,如何用科学理论、模型与方法对港口腹地进行划分直接关系到港口布局规划的合理与否。本文对腹地划分问题进行研究以提高划分方法的科学性和合理性,首先分析制约腹地范围界定的关键因素为港口因素、腹地因素、港口与腹地联系因素,对现有划分方法的研究,比如行政划分法、圈层法与点轴法、隶属度法、区位商法和威尔逊模型等,在比较这些方法优劣势的基础上选择牛顿模型作为本文的实证划分方法；然后以广州港和深圳港为例,引入层次分析法计算各级指标权重,应用多层次模糊综合评判法进行评价,将评价值带入模型得到腹地划分结果,并与断裂点公式的划分结果进行比较分析,发现由于两港距离比较接近,所以腹地区分圆与其垂直平分线较近,且在较近区域内,腹地划分与其与两港的距离有关；在较远区域内,由于半径较小,所以深圳港的腹地优势慢慢显现；最后使用威尔逊模型对广州港进行腹地划分,为今后的研究提供更为科学、合理的思路及方法。
[Abstract]:No matter the traditional economy or the so-called new economy, no matter how the development of information technology, the circulation of commodities can not be separated from the port, the world trade must be realized through the port. Looking back at 30 years of reform and opening up, the window of opening up to the outside world is reflected in a single port on China's territory. The first batch of 14 open cities in China announced by the State Council are all coastal port cities. The development of Chinese ports can also be said to be the epitome of China's opening to the outside world. Today, the coastline of China from the south to the north is full of ports of all sizes, large and small, and each port is an economic entity. Undertaking domestic and international commercial trade-undertaking the total import and export freight volume of China 80-90%, loading and unloading 95% of imported crude oil and 99% of imported iron ore, but also leading the local economy, Port economy has become an indispensable part of modern Chinese economy. In port planning, port hinterland scale analysis is an essential prerequisite and special requirements. In the process of port construction, how to use scientific theory, model and method to divide port hinterland is directly related to the rationality of port layout planning. This paper studies the problem of hinterland division in order to improve the scientificalness and reasonableness of the division method. Firstly, the key factors that restrict the definition of hinterland range are port factor, hinterland factor, port and hinterland connection factor. On the basis of comparing the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, the Newtonian model is chosen as the empirical division method, such as administrative division method, circle layer method and point axis method, membership degree method, location quotient method and Wilson model. Then taking Guangzhou Port and Shenzhen Port as examples, the AHP is introduced to calculate the index weights at all levels, and the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to evaluate, and the evaluation value is brought into the model to get the hinterland division result. Comparing with the result of fault point formula, it is found that because the distance between the two ports is close, the hinterland division circle is close to its vertical horizontal line, and in the near region, the hinterland division is related to the distance between the two ports. In the far region, because of the smaller radius, the hinterland advantage of Shenzhen Port appears slowly. Finally, the Wilson model is used to divide the hinterland of Guangzhou Port, which provides a more scientific and reasonable way of thinking and method for future research.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F552;U652

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