不确定条件下应急资源布局与配送优化研究

发布时间：2019-02-28 16:25

【摘要】：突发事件的危害性、不可预测性、影响范围广等特性,使得社会各界对突发事件应对的关注度越来越高。而应急管理是人们在应对突发事件过程中,通过对事件的起因、过程、机理等进行分析、对事件后果进行评估,从而采取措施和手段对突发事件实行人为的预警、控制和处理,以降低灾难损失,达到优化决策的效果。其对事件全过程管理起到至关重要的作用。为了将突发事件的损失降到最低,应急资源协调优化供应是开展救援工作的基础,是应急救援效果最重要的保障。由于应急管理具有紧迫性,资源的供应效率和满足度是影响救援效果的主要指标。因此,对突发事件应对过程中应急资源的布局和配送分析和研究是很有必要的。本文以大规模突发事件导致多受灾区域应急资源需求激增为研究背景,分别针对突发事件前期应急准备阶段情境不确定和配送过程中路网的不确定的情况,研究应急资源布局和配送问题。主要内容包括以下几个方面： (1)对应急资源协调优化问题进行分类,并分析其目标和原则；分别对应急资源布局和配送问题进行分析,找出应急救援过程中存在的不确定,提出从情境不确定和路网不确定两个方面对应急资源布局和配送问题研究。 (2)针对突发事件前期情境不确定的情况,提出将可能出现的情境与案例库进行比对,.预测出各情境下受灾点的物资需求,考虑我国应急管理分级响应体制,构建了基于案例推理的应急资源布局双层规划模型。考虑到省级仓库主要追求供应率最大,而市级仓库主要追求响应度最高,分析不同层次决策者目标不一致对应急资源布局的影响。对上层目标求解设计了粒子群算法,下层目标采用传统优化算法对模型求解。 (3)研究应急资源限制、路网不确定情况下,修复道路和资源分配之间的均衡问题,用前景理论对灾民获得应急资源时间的心理风险感知进行刻画,并将灾民的损失用资源未满足度表示,构建变路网下考虑风险感知的应急资源配送模型,设计遗传算法对模型进行求解。本文针对不确定条件下的应急资源布局和配送问题,将案例推理和行为决策运用到模型构建中,为应急管理提供一种新的角度和思路,在实际应用中,可以为应急管理部门提供快速、有效的决策方案,有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The harmfulness, unpredictability and wide influence range of the emergency make the society pay more and more attention to the emergency response. And emergency management is people in the process of dealing with emergencies, through the analysis of the causes, processes, mechanisms and so on, to evaluate the consequences of the incident, so as to take measures and means to implement artificial early warning, control and treatment of emergencies. In order to reduce the disaster loss, achieve optimal decision-making effect. It plays an important role in the whole process of event management. In order to minimize the loss of emergencies, the coordinated and optimal supply of emergency resources is the basis of carrying out rescue work and the most important guarantee of emergency rescue effect. Because of the urgency of emergency management, the supply efficiency and satisfaction of resources are the main indicators affecting the effectiveness of rescue. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and study the distribution and distribution of emergency resources in the process of emergency response. Based on the research background of the surge of emergency resource demand in multi-disaster areas caused by large-scale emergencies, this paper aims at the uncertainty of the situation in the pre-emergency preparedness phase and the uncertainty of the road network in the process of distribution, respectively. To study the distribution and distribution of emergency resources. The main contents include the following aspects: (1) classify the problem of coordination and optimization of emergency resources and analyze its objectives and principles; This paper analyzes the distribution of emergency resources and the distribution of emergency resources, finds out the uncertainty existing in the process of emergency rescue, and puts forward the research on the layout and distribution of emergency resources from two aspects: situational uncertainty and road network uncertainty. (2) in view of the uncertainty of the pre-emergency situation, this paper proposes to compare the possible situation with the case base. In this paper, the material demand of disaster-affected sites is predicted. Considering the hierarchical response system of emergency management in China, a bilevel programming model of emergency resource layout based on case-based reasoning (CBR) is constructed. Considering the maximum supply rate of provincial warehouses and the highest response degree of municipal warehouses, this paper analyzes the influence of different levels of decision makers' objectives on the layout of emergency resources. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is designed to solve the upper objective, and the lower objective is solved by the traditional optimization algorithm. (3) to study the limitation of emergency resources, repair the balance between road and resource allocation under uncertain road network, and use foreground theory to describe the psychological risk perception of disaster victims' access to emergency resources. The loss of victims is represented by the unsatisfied degree of resources, and a risk-aware emergency resource distribution model under the variable network is constructed, and the genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model. In order to solve the problem of emergency resource layout and distribution under uncertain conditions, this paper applies case-based reasoning and behavioral decision-making to model construction, and provides a new angle and idea for emergency management, which is applied in practice. It can provide a quick and effective decision-making scheme for emergency management department, which has certain reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D63;D922.14

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