论货币流通量的“正常水平”
发布时间：2018-08-01 15:21
【摘要】："让货币流通量回归到正常水平"的提法是对的。因为从理论上讲,不管哪一个因素导致的通货膨胀都是一种货币现象,通货膨胀总是同货币流通量偏多有关。但问题并没有那么简单,有若干问题还需要进一步探讨,如什么是货币流通量的"正常水平",如何计算外汇储备增长和结构对货币流通量"正常水平"的影响等等。在当前形势下,实行货币流通量向"正常水平"回归,很可能引起产品供应链的断裂和企业资金链的断裂,从而出现企业停产、倒闭和员工下岗、失业的情况,也可能出现使个体工商户收缩、使承包土地的农民收入下降的情况。因此,在采取措施实行"货币流通量回归正常水平"时,不能忽略通货膨胀预期和企业盈利前景预期,这两种预期同样重要。
[Abstract]:The phrase "return money to normal levels" is right. Because in theory, whatever the cause of inflation is a monetary phenomenon, inflation is always associated with excessive currency circulation. But the problem is not so simple, there are some problems need to be further explored, such as what is the "normal level" of currency circulation, how to calculate the influence of foreign exchange reserve growth and structure on the "normal level" of currency circulation, and so on. Under the current situation, the return of currency circulation to the "normal level" is likely to lead to the breakage of the product supply chain and the breakage of the enterprise's capital chain, thus leading to the situation of enterprises stopping production, closing down, laid-off employees, and losing their jobs. It is also possible to make individual industrial and commercial households shrink and farmers' income to contract land decline. Therefore, when we take measures to implement "money circulation return to normal level", we can not ignore inflation expectations and earnings outlook expectations, both of which are equally important.
【作者单位】： 北京大学光华管理学院;
【分类号】：F822
本文编号：2157998
[Abstract]:The phrase "return money to normal levels" is right. Because in theory, whatever the cause of inflation is a monetary phenomenon, inflation is always associated with excessive currency circulation. But the problem is not so simple, there are some problems need to be further explored, such as what is the "normal level" of currency circulation, how to calculate the influence of foreign exchange reserve growth and structure on the "normal level" of currency circulation, and so on. Under the current situation, the return of currency circulation to the "normal level" is likely to lead to the breakage of the product supply chain and the breakage of the enterprise's capital chain, thus leading to the situation of enterprises stopping production, closing down, laid-off employees, and losing their jobs. It is also possible to make individual industrial and commercial households shrink and farmers' income to contract land decline. Therefore, when we take measures to implement "money circulation return to normal level", we can not ignore inflation expectations and earnings outlook expectations, both of which are equally important.
【作者单位】： 北京大学光华管理学院;
【分类号】：F822
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