人民币实际汇率不确定性与外商直接投资择机进入

发布时间：2019-02-22 11:52

【摘要】：本文综合运用不确定条件下的投资理论和汇率风险规避理论,建立一个理论分析框架考察人民币实际汇率不确定性对东道国市场导向型和出口导向型外商直接投资(FDI)择机进入东道国市场的影响作用。利用中国产业层面1999:1～2008:4相关季度数据对理论结论进行实证检验。理论和经验研究结论表明:无论在短期还是长期,人民币实际汇率不确定性的增加同时会对出口导向型FDI和东道国市场导向型FDI择机进入产生显著的负面影响作用。人民币实际汇率水平升值会促进东道国市场导向型FDI择机进入,但对于出口导向型FDI择机进入的影响,理论和经验研究结论并不一致。人民币汇率预期升值对东道国市场导向型FDI择机进入影响不明确,但对出口导向型FDI择机进入会产生显著的负面影响。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the investment theory and exchange rate risk aversion theory under uncertain conditions are used synthetically. A theoretical analysis framework is established to study the effect of RMB real exchange rate uncertainty on the market oriented and export-oriented FDI (FDI) entry into the host country market. This paper makes an empirical test on the theoretical conclusions by using the relevant quarterly data of China's industrial level 1999: 1 / 2008: 4. The theoretical and empirical results show that the increase of RMB real exchange rate uncertainty will have a significant negative impact on both export-oriented FDI and market-oriented FDI in the host country in the short or long term. The appreciation of the real exchange rate of RMB will promote the entry of market-oriented FDI in the host country, but the theoretical and empirical research results are not consistent with the influence of export-oriented FDI entry. The expected appreciation of RMB exchange rate is not clear to the host country market-oriented FDI entry, but it will have a significant negative impact on the export-oriented FDI entry.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;对外经济贸易大学国际商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目《中国汇率制度选择、宏观绩效与金融稳定性研究》(项目号:06BJL052) 对外经济贸易大学“211”重点学科建设项目《人民币双边实际有效汇率与FDI流入研究》(项目号:73300014)资助
【分类号】：F224;F832.6

【共引文献】