调整成本约束下的中国经济波动数量分析
发布时间：2019-06-05 22:51
【摘要】：自改革开放以来,中国经济取得了令人瞩目的高速发展,但是纵观这三十多年来,中国经济虽然在持续增长但也一直起起落落。GDP同比增长率最高达1993年1季度的15.4%,最低仅为2009年1季度的6.2%。如此大幅度的波动究竟是什么原因造成的呢?经济学理论认为经济波动主要是由外生冲击所引致的,如技术冲击、需求冲击、货币政策冲击等外生冲击影响着各个宏观经济变量的变化,也就是我们看到的经济波动现象。在面对经济波动时我国也采取了相应的措施来干预宏观经济的运行。最为典型的一个事实就是,2008年全球金融危机爆发给我国带来严重经济衰退威胁,我国政府实施了4万亿财政扩张计划与宽松的货币政策等经济政策予以应对。近几年来,我国一直采用积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,稳健的货币政策在扩大内需、推进经济向均衡状态发展等方面功不可没。对于当前中国经济来说,哪种货币政策工具是有效的?本文从新凯恩斯主义视角出发,构造了存在三种类型的调整成本(价格调整成本、资本调整成本和劳动调整成本)约束特征的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE模型),并试图从一个包含四种冲击,即反映供给的技术冲击、消费者货币需求量的货币需求冲击、消费者需求的消费偏好冲击、政府的货币供给政策冲击来分析我国经济波动问题,针对我国1996—2015年的经济波动现状对政府的最优货币政策工具进行了比较。DSGE模型中包括四个经济部门:代表性家庭、最终产品厂商、中间产品厂商和广义政府,引入调整成本约束,分析在四种不同类型的外生冲击下,不同的调整成本对宏观经济变量的影响机制,以及对中国经济波动产生影响的关键冲击,并在此基础上研究调整成本和外生冲击下的最优货币政策工具(包括数量型工具和价格型工具),对中国货币政策的有效运行和经济平稳发展提供参考意义。本文的研究基于动态随机一般均衡模型框架,我们得出以下结论:调整成本约束的存在是我国宏观经济的一个显著特征,而且这些外生成本约束在一定程度上抑制了我国经济的增长和遏制了经济的衰退;无论是长期还是短期,货币需求冲击和消费偏好冲击对经济波动的影响都要明显高于技术冲击和货币供给政策冲击;利率规则下的社会福利损失要小于货币供应量规则下的社会福利损失,因此利率规则比货币供应量规则对我国的宏观经济调控更为有效。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made remarkable and rapid development, but throughout the past three decades, although the Chinese economy has continued to grow, it has also been ups and downs. GDP growth rate reached 15.4% in the first quarter of 1993. The minimum was 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009. What is the cause of such a large fluctuation? Economic theory holds that economic fluctuations are mainly caused by exogenous shocks, such as technological shocks, demand shocks, monetary policy shocks and other exogenous shocks that affect the changes of various macroeconomic variables, that is, the phenomenon of economic fluctuations we see. In the face of economic fluctuations, China has also taken corresponding measures to intervene in macroeconomic operation. The most typical fact is that the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has brought serious economic recession threat to our country, and our government has implemented 4 trillion fiscal expansion plan and loose monetary policy to deal with it. In recent years, China has been adopting active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and prudent monetary policy has played an important role in expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of the economy to a balanced state. Which monetary policy tool is effective for the current Chinese economy? From the perspective of neo-Keynesianism, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model) with three types of adjustment costs (price adjustment costs, capital adjustment costs and labor adjustment costs) constraints. It also tries to analyze the problem of economic fluctuation in China from the perspective of four kinds of shocks, namely, the technological shock reflecting supply, the impact of money demand on consumer money demand, the impact on consumer demand and the impact on the government's money supply policy. In view of the present situation of economic fluctuations in China from 1996 to 2015, this paper compares the optimal monetary policy tools of the government. DSGE model includes four economic sectors: representative households, final product manufacturers, intermediate product manufacturers and the broad government. This paper introduces the adjustment cost constraint, and analyzes the influence mechanism of different adjustment cost on macroeconomic variables and the key impact on China's economic fluctuation under four different types of exogenous shocks. On this basis, the optimal monetary policy tools (including quantitative tools and price tools) under adjustment cost and exogenous impact are studied, which provides reference significance for the effective operation of China's monetary policy and the stable development of economy. Based on the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we draw the following conclusions: the existence of adjusting cost constraints is a significant feature of macroeconomic in China. Moreover, to a certain extent, these exogenous cost constraints inhibit the growth of China's economy and contain the recession of the economy. Whether in the long term or in the short term, the impact of money demand shock and consumption preference shock on economic fluctuation is significantly higher than that of technology shock and money supply policy impact. The social welfare loss under the interest rate rule is smaller than the social welfare loss under the money supply rule, so the interest rate rule is more effective to the macroeconomic regulation and control of our country than the money supply rule.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made remarkable and rapid development, but throughout the past three decades, although the Chinese economy has continued to grow, it has also been ups and downs. GDP growth rate reached 15.4% in the first quarter of 1993. The minimum was 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009. What is the cause of such a large fluctuation? Economic theory holds that economic fluctuations are mainly caused by exogenous shocks, such as technological shocks, demand shocks, monetary policy shocks and other exogenous shocks that affect the changes of various macroeconomic variables, that is, the phenomenon of economic fluctuations we see. In the face of economic fluctuations, China has also taken corresponding measures to intervene in macroeconomic operation. The most typical fact is that the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has brought serious economic recession threat to our country, and our government has implemented 4 trillion fiscal expansion plan and loose monetary policy to deal with it. In recent years, China has been adopting active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and prudent monetary policy has played an important role in expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of the economy to a balanced state. Which monetary policy tool is effective for the current Chinese economy? From the perspective of neo-Keynesianism, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model) with three types of adjustment costs (price adjustment costs, capital adjustment costs and labor adjustment costs) constraints. It also tries to analyze the problem of economic fluctuation in China from the perspective of four kinds of shocks, namely, the technological shock reflecting supply, the impact of money demand on consumer money demand, the impact on consumer demand and the impact on the government's money supply policy. In view of the present situation of economic fluctuations in China from 1996 to 2015, this paper compares the optimal monetary policy tools of the government. DSGE model includes four economic sectors: representative households, final product manufacturers, intermediate product manufacturers and the broad government. This paper introduces the adjustment cost constraint, and analyzes the influence mechanism of different adjustment cost on macroeconomic variables and the key impact on China's economic fluctuation under four different types of exogenous shocks. On this basis, the optimal monetary policy tools (including quantitative tools and price tools) under adjustment cost and exogenous impact are studied, which provides reference significance for the effective operation of China's monetary policy and the stable development of economy. Based on the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we draw the following conclusions: the existence of adjusting cost constraints is a significant feature of macroeconomic in China. Moreover, to a certain extent, these exogenous cost constraints inhibit the growth of China's economy and contain the recession of the economy. Whether in the long term or in the short term, the impact of money demand shock and consumption preference shock on economic fluctuation is significantly higher than that of technology shock and money supply policy impact. The social welfare loss under the interest rate rule is smaller than the social welfare loss under the money supply rule, so the interest rate rule is more effective to the macroeconomic regulation and control of our country than the money supply rule.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F124
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