股票市场对我国经济增长作用的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 17:18

本文关键词：股票市场对我国经济增长作用的实证研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2012年A股市场基本进入全流通时代,这也为股权分置改革划上了圆满的句号。我国的股票市场也慢慢的走向成熟,股票市场与经济增长的关系也慢慢脱离了因为体制原因而造成的束缚。我国的资本市场也开始了多层次的金融体系的建立。债券市场,股票市场,期货市场,三者构成了多层次的金融体系,而且三者的功能是互补的,不仅是实现金融资源配置的重要平台,也可以发挥价格发现功能,为货币、资本进行风险定价。债券市场是为货币利率定价的场所,而股票市场则是为资本收益率定价的平台,而期货市场则提供了风险转移机制。在股票市场中“盈利”和“流动性”是驱动股市的两个轮子,在实体经济中“利润”和“信贷宽松度”也是企业家们十分关心的问题,股票市场是投资者们对实体经济预期增长幅度的体现,股票投资者们会把资金投向自己认为在未来会有很好的增长趋势的行业和公司中去,从而会使这些行业比其他行业更容易获得资金,促进经济的增长。国内外已有许多经济学家们针对股票市场和经济增长之间的关系做出了研究。关于股票市场在经济增长中作用,比较一致的看法是认为股票市场具有筹集资金,转化机制,优化资源配置和分散风险等功能。本文将“中国股票市场和经济增长”作为研究对象,是其他学者有关股票市场与经济增长研究的延续。之前许多经济学家对中国股票市场的研究,限于数据的时间跨度过短和我国股票市场开始于2005年的股权分置改革还没有完成等原因,得出了我国股票市场与经济增长之间没有正相关关系的结论。本文的出发点也是研究“中国股票市场是否促进经济增长”这个困惑许多人包括作者本人的问题。在理论基础上股票市场的提出和建立是为了促进经济的更好更快的发展,但是在实际中由于一些投机因素和不可控因素的存在,股票市场的发展壮大会出现与宏观经济相背离的情况,从而许多人会对股票市场的促进作用持有怀疑态度,这是可以理解的。因此,需要对这一问题进行深入的研究,得出比较令人信服的研究结果。本文首先回顾了国内外学者对股票市场与经济增长关系的研究。主张股票市场与经济增长相关且能显著地促进经济增长的经济学家,主要从股票市场的融资能力,流动性,规模等角度研究股票市场对资本形成的作用,认为股票市场有利于加速资本的形成,促进资源的合理配置,从而有利于经济增长。但是,仍有许多经济学家认为股票市场与经济增长之间并没有相关关系,更有的实证研究表明,因为股票市场过高的周转率的原因,阻碍了经济的增长。第二部分从理论方面分析了股票市场对经济增长的促进作用。理论方面主要从功能金融学的角度来分析了股票市场对于经济增长的五大基本功能和作用：股票市场与流动性提供、股票市场与风险管理、股票市场与创新、股票市场与信息生产及显示、股票市场与激励问题的强化；深入分析到股票市场与经济增长时,股票市场的建立还具有其独特的定位,在宏观经济中,股票市场为全社会的流动性的释放提供了一个重要的平台,在股票市场上因为流动性迅速、分散风险的功能,股票市场自从建立之日起就承担了其自然功能。进一步的股票市场因为是全部投资者对一个国家未来经济发展的预期的集合,从这一个方面看,股票市场的表现为政府对宏观经济进行调节提供了一良好的、天然的指示器。随着股票市场的扩大,与间接融资之间的差距的减少,慢慢的股票市场在货币市场和实体经济之间架起了一座桥梁,成为了两者之间的纽带。我国目前的经济状况与其他国家相比具有其复杂性,我国目前正在调结构,积极部署战略新兴产业,控制传统制造的“依靠资源发展”的模式,但是我国目前积极部署战略新兴产业与国外发达国家发展战略新兴产业是不同的,国外的传统产业向新兴产业的过渡是自然更迭、承接关系,是在传统产业充分成熟,由于技术创新、新的消费需求推动或其他经济要素的变化,某种新产业、新文化形成一个新产业。但是我国的新兴产业的推进和开发是在传统产业发展不充分的情况下,由外部强力培育、推进的,是为了超前布局抢占战略新兴产业。因此股票市场与创新之间的关系,有利于我国战略新兴产业资金的募集、结构的调整。因此在理论分析的第三部分还具提讨论了我国股票市场的建立对我国经济体制的转型的特殊贡献。当然也存在着股票市场对经济增长具有负面作用的理论,本文在理论分析的最后部分具体讨论了股票市场的泡沫化。与前面理论分析相对应的是,除了因为股票市场在资产证券化过程中,对信用的大力扩张而产生的股票市场泡沫。我国股票市场的泡沫也有其特殊的而原因,在微观结构上是因为我国股票市场机制的问题,机构投资者比例很少、文化因素导致的投资者喜欢赚“快钱”,没有退市机制造成的“st板块”的热炒等。在根本原因上还是由我国目前的转型期经济状况造成的,传统制造业的增长处在“下行通道”中,战略新兴产业处在“希望”和“概念”中,在股票市场上找不到哪一个行业可以有长期的行业基本面的支持,可以在较长时期内获得高速发展的动力,价值投资说起来也就是个空话,而且资金还具有逐利性,传统制造业获得的超额收益在逐渐下降,战略新兴产业还处于导入期,风险太大,因而只有资金只有从实体经济流向虚拟经济,利用实体经济中战略新兴产业的概念来炒作,或者追逐政策板块。在本文第三部分的实证研究中,本文把实证研究分为三部分分别检验,在第一部分检验中以居民储蓄增长率为被解释变量,分析了股票市场是否起到了把储蓄转化为投资的作用。第二部分以新增固定资产投资增长率为被解释变量,检验了股票市场对新增固定资产投资的作用。第三部分以实际GDP增长率为被解释变量,分析了股票市场的规模指标和流动性指标是否对经济增长起到了促进作用。最后本文具体分析了我国股票市场存在的问题和改革的难度,最后结合最近郭树清主席就职后,所提出的一些改革理论,和我国在两会期间对资本市场的期望,针对目前股市的问题提出了具体的政策建议。在经过一系列的理论分析和实证检验后,本文具体得出了以下结论： 1.我国股票市场总体上对经济起到了促进作用。 2.中国股票市场的发展规模要比流动性对经济增长起到的作用更大,总体上来说我国的股票市场还是一个“筹资型”的股票市场,自身的机制并不完善。而且随着流通市值在总市值中所占比重的增加,股票市场对经济增长所起的作用越来越明显。 3.我国股票市场的投机性比较严重,周转率的增加对经济增长起到了负的作用,投资者在长期投资上所获得的收益较少,多喜欢投机,获得短期资本利得。由于投机的存在使得股票市场可以促进上市公司信息披露透明化,管理现代企业化的功能被弱化,阻碍了上市国企,上市民企的企业制度的改革,没有对经济增长起到存进作用。 4.在对股票市场把储蓄转化为投资的实证分析中可以发现,我国股票市场的规模的扩大和流动性的增加使得我国居民的投资组合收益最大化,增加了居民的储蓄。但是因为股票市场上庄家的存在使得大部分散户投资者在投机上获得了负的收益。而且在我国股市的发展过程中城镇居民起到了更大的作用,我国农村居民的投资渠道还十分有限。 5.我国居民对可以在股票市场上能过获得长期收益的信心不足,大部分投资者都做不到坚持长期价值投资的理念。 6.在对股票市场对新增固定资产投资作用的检验中可以发现,我国股票市场促进创新性企业发展的功能得到了显著的发挥。股票市场直接融资方式极大的促进了我国上市企业对科技含量高、投资风险大、回收周期长的项目的投资,推动了我国技术的创新性应用。根据所做的实证分析结果,和我国股票市场的具体现状,本文提出了以下的具体政策： 1.要健全完善新股发行制度和退市制度 2.培育和引导机构投资者, 3.完善投资理念推动上市公司完善投资者回报机制 4.加强科技创新与资本市场对接
[Abstract]:In 2012 A A-share market to enter the full circulation times, this is also for the reform of non tradable shares ended successfully. China's stock market is gradually mature, the relationship between stock market and economic growth are slowly out of the shackles of the system. Because the cause of China's capital market also began building the level of the financial system. The bond market, stock market, futures market, the three constitute a multi-level financial system, and the three functions are complementary, not only is an important platform for the allocation of financial resources, but also can play the function of price discovery, currency, capital pricing risk. The bond market is for money interest rate pricing places, while the stock market is the rate of return on capital pricing platform and the futures markets provide the risk transfer mechanism.
In the stock market "profit" and "liquidity" is the two wheels of the stock market, in the real economy "profit" and "credit easing" entrepreneurs is also very concerned about the issue, the stock market investors are expected to reflect the growth rate of the real economy, stock investors will invest in their thought have a good growth trend in the future of the industry and the company, which will make the industry than other industries are more likely to obtain funds to promote economic growth. There are many economists on the relationship between stock market and economic growth has made the research on the stock market. The role in economic growth, more consistent the view is that the stock market is to raise funds, transformation mechanism, optimize the allocation of resources and risk diversification and other functions.
The China stock market and economic growth "as the research object, the other is the continuation of scholars study the stock market and economic growth. Many economists of the Chinese stock market, due to the limited data and short period of China's stock market began in 2005 the share reform has not been completed, the no positive correlation between the stock market and economic growth in China. The starting point of this paper is to study the China whether the stock market to promote economic growth in the confusion of many people including the author. In the stock market on the basis of the theory proposed in this paper is to promote the economy better and faster development, but in the actual because of some speculative factors and uncontrollable factors, the development of the stock market will appear and deviate from the strong macroeconomic situation, thus Many people will be skeptical about the promotion role of the stock market. This is understandable. Therefore, we need to further study this problem and draw a convincing research result.
This paper first reviews the research on the relationship between stock market and economic growth in domestic and foreign scholars advocate. The stock market and economic growth and can promote the economic growth of the economist, mainly from the stock market financing ability, liquidity, stock market scale angle field research on capital formation, believes that the stock market will accelerate the form of capital, promote the rational allocation of resources, which is conducive to economic growth. However, there are still many economists that there is no relationship between stock market and economic growth, more empirical studies show that because of the stock market, high turnover rate, hinder economic growth.
The second part analyzes the theoretical aspects of the stock market to promote economic growth. The theory mainly from the perspective of the financial function of the stock market for the five basic functions of economic growth: the stock market and provide liquidity, the stock market and the stock market risk management, and innovation, the stock market and information production and show that the strengthening of the stock market and incentive problems; in-depth analysis to the stock market and economic growth, the establishment of the stock market also has its unique location, in the macro economy, the stock market provides an important platform for the release of the liquidity of the whole society, because the liquidity in the stock market rapidly. The function of risk diversification, the stock market since the establishment date took its natural function. Further the stock market because it is all investors in a country's future economic development Set the expected development, from this perspective, the performance of the stock market for the government in macroeconomic regulation provides a good, natural indicator. With the expansion of the stock market, and reduce the indirect financing gap between the stock market and gradually set up a bridge between the money market and the the real economy, has become a link between the two. The current economic situation of our country and other countries compared with its complexity, our country is actively adjusting the structure, the deployment of strategic emerging industries, the traditional manufacturing control "rely on resource development" model, but China's current active deployment of strategic emerging industries in developed countries and development strategy the emerging industry is different, the traditional industry abroad transition to the emerging industry is a natural change, undertake relations, in the traditional industry is fully mature, due to technological innovation, the new consumer demand The push for change or other economic factors, some new industries, new culture and the formation of a new industry. But the advance and the development of emerging industry in China is in the traditional industrial development is not sufficient, by external strength cultivation, promote, in order to seize the strategic emerging industry ahead of the layout. So the relationship between the stock market and innovation, is conducive to China's strategic emerging industries to raise funds, the adjustment of the structure. In the third part, the theoretical analysis is provided to discuss the establishment of the stock market of our country's special contribution to the transformation of the economic system of our country. Of course there are also the stock market has a negative effect on the economic growth theory, this paper in the last part of the theoretical analysis are discussed in detail of the stock market bubble. Compared with the previous theoretical analysis, because in addition to the stock market in the process of asset securitization, a large force of credit expansion Zhang and stock market bubble. China's stock market bubble has its special reasons, the microstructure is because the mechanism of China's stock market, the proportion of institutional investors rarely, cultural factors lead investors love to make quick money, no delisting machine manufacturing into the "St plate" stir fried. In the root cause or caused by the transformation period of our country current economic situation, the traditional manufacturing industry growth in the downlink channel ", strategic emerging industries in the" Hope "and" concept ", where an industry can support the fundamentals of the long-term industry was not found in the stock market that can obtain the momentum of rapid development in a long period of time, the value of the investment that is also a talk, but money also has a profit driven, traditional manufacturing industry gains a gradual decline in the strategic emerging industries is still. In the lead-in period, the risk is too large. Therefore, only the funds flow from the real economy to the virtual economy, and we should use the concept of the strategic emerging industry in the real economy to hype or pursue the policy sector.
In the third part of the empirical research, the empirical research is divided into three parts. In the first part inspection, inspection to the growth of household savings rate as explanatory variables, analysis of the stock market is to put the savings into investment. In the second part, the new growth rate of investment in fixed assets as the explained variable to test the effect on the stock market, new investment in fixed assets. The third part of the real GDP growth rate as explanatory variables, analyzes the index scale index and the liquidity of the stock market on economic growth plays a promoting role.
Finally, this paper analyses the existing problem in the Chinese stock market and the difficulty of the reform. Finally, combined with the recent president Guo Shuqing after he proposed some reform theory in China and NPC and CPPCC during the capital market expectations, aiming at the problem of the stock market put forward specific policy recommendations.
After a series of theoretical analyses and empirical tests, the following conclusions are made in this paper.
1. China's stock market on the whole has played a role in promoting the economy.
The scale of the development of 2. Chinese stock market liquidity is bigger than the impact on economic growth, overall China's stock market is a "capital" in the stock market, its mechanism is not perfect. But with the market capitalization accounted for in the total market value of the proportion of the increase, and role from the stock market to economic growth is more obvious.
3. of China's stock market speculation is serious, increase the turnover rate of the negative effect on economic growth, investors in long-term investment on less income and more love speculation, short-term capital gains due to speculation. Due to the existence of the stock market can promote the transparency of information disclosure of listed companies, the management of modern enterprise the function is weakened, hindering the reform of state-owned enterprises listed, listed private enterprise system, not to put into effect on economic growth.
4. in the stock market to convert savings into investment can be found in the empirical analysis, increase the size of the expansion of China's stock market liquidity and maximize our residents' investment portfolio returns and increase savings. But because the stock market makers are making most retail investors get a negative gains in speculation. But to a greater role in the urban development process of China's stock market in our country, rural residents' investment channels is very limited.
5. our residents are less confident about the ability to gain long-term earnings in the stock market, and most of the investors do not have the idea of persisting in long-term value investment.
6. can be found in the inspection of the stock market on the new fixed asset investment effect in China's stock market to promote the development of innovative enterprise's function has been significant play. Direct financing of stock market has greatly promoted China's listed enterprises of high technology content, high risk investment, long payback period of investment projects and promoted the application of innovative technology in China.
According to the results of the empirical analysis and the specific status of the stock market in China, the following specific policies are put forward.
1. to perfect and perfect the system of new issue and the system of delisting
2. to cultivate and guide institutional investors,
3. perfect investment idea and promote the return mechanism of the listed company to improve the investor
4. strengthen the docking of scientific and technological innovation and capital market

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F124;F224

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