以货币流通速度为基础的短期经济增长实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 09:44

本文选题：货币流通速度 + 经济增长理论　；参考：《河北大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：如果从亚当斯密思考国民财富增加的路径的开始算起，经济增长理论已经有245年的历史。这二百多年正是人类经济发展最快的时代，毋庸置疑经济增长理论对近现代经济的飞速增长有不可估量的作用。然而经济增长理论更注重对长期经济增长的研究，难以给出短期宏观策略的战术指引。从这个角度研究经济的短期增长，并同政府的现实宏观决策联系起来具有很强的理论意义；从各国政府对2008年金融危机缺乏预警看，从引导经济在短期内平稳运行、减小经济波动、减轻经济危机对人们的影响角度看，建立短期经济增长模型加强对经济波动的预警、识别经济泡沫，有极强的现实意义。本文首先介绍了货币流通速度和经济增长理论的国内外研究现状，然后重点分析梳理了经济增长理论，说明了研究短期增长理论的必要性。经过一系列准备后，本文总结了影响经济增长的短期因素，构造了短期的经济增长函数，并从理论上推导了变量间的相互作用过程，提出了识别经济泡沫的方法。本文建立了以货币流通速度为基础的短期经济增长模型，并通过向量误差修正模型、脉冲分析等计量手段研究了短期内各变量的相互作用形式的具体过程。最后，文章总结了各变量的经济意义以及在宏观调控中所发挥的作用。
[Abstract]:If Adam Smith started thinking about the path to increase national wealth, the economic growth theory was 245 years old. These two hundred years are the times of the fastest development of human economy, and there is no doubt that the theory of economic growth plays an inestimable role in the rapid growth of modern economy. However, the theory of economic growth pays more attention to the study of long-term economic growth, and it is difficult to give the tactical guidance of short-term macro-strategy. It is of great theoretical significance to study the short-term growth of the economy from this angle and to link it with the government's realistic macro decision. From the point of view of the lack of early warning of the 2008 financial crisis by the governments of various countries, and from the point of view of guiding the economy to run smoothly in the short term, From the point of view of reducing economic fluctuation and reducing the impact of economic crisis on people, it is of great practical significance to establish a short-term economic growth model to strengthen the early warning of economic fluctuation and to identify economic bubbles. This paper first introduces the domestic and foreign research status of the theory of currency circulation velocity and economic growth, then analyzes and combs the theory of economic growth, and explains the necessity of studying the theory of short-term growth. After a series of preparations, this paper summarizes the short-term factors that affect the economic growth, constructs the short-term economic growth function, deduces the interaction process between variables theoretically, and puts forward a method to identify the economic bubble. In this paper, a short-term economic growth model based on the velocity of money circulation is established, and the specific process of the interaction of variables in the short term is studied by means of vector error correction model and pulse analysis. Finally, the paper summarizes the economic significance of each variable and its role in macro-control.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F820

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