鄱阳湖生态经济区资源环境与社会经济发展的协调性研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 15:48

本文选题：鄱阳湖生态经济区 + 资源环境和社会经济发展　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：鄱阳湖是中国第一大淡水湖,位于江西省北部,长江南岸,是具有世界影响的重要湿地。在之前的经济发展中,鄱阳湖区生态环境遭到严重破坏,并面临日益严峻的水污染威胁和湿地退化现象。为了加大对生态区环境的保护,更好地促进地区发展,2009年12月12日国务院正式发布了《鄱阳湖生态经济区规划》,体现了国家对于鄱阳湖生态经济区建设和发展的重视,也标志着其生态化发展在中部,乃至全国都具有举足轻重的地位。规划旨在将鄱阳湖生态经济区建设成为世界性生态文明与经济社会发展协调统一、人与自然和谐相处的生态经济示范区和中国低碳发展先行区。区域的协调发展,是一个动态的过程,整个区域系统想要达到效应最优,需要资源、环境和社会经济三个子系统相互作用、协调一致的发展。而在区域发展的最初阶段,人们往往更重视经济的增长,未将资源环境的和谐发展作为考虑因素,忽视由此带来的资源环境发展失调,导致经济发展受阻。可见,区域经济增长与资源的合理利用、环境优化之间的协调关系具有非常重要的实际意义。因此,本文以鄱阳湖生态经济区为研究对象,通过系统梳理国内外研究现状并界定协调性的内涵,以资源环境与社会经济的协调性为切入点,对鄱阳湖生态经济区资源环境与社会经济协调发展状况和未来规划进行了较为深入的理论分析和实证研究。具体而言,首先界定协调性的内涵与特征,设计协调性评价指标体系,建立鄱阳湖生态区地级市的指标数据库;其次,从系统耦合等角度构造协调性评价方法对生态区自2005年以来的发展进行协调性评价。最后,建立生态区的系统动力学模型,预测系统主要因素的变化趋势,并据此提出促进生态经济区资源环境与社会经济协调发展的对策。通过建立多目标规划模型,对生态区未来5年的发展进行规划。主要研究工作和结论概括如下:(1)从资源环境与社会经济发展关系的理论研究、实证研究、协调性研究和鄱阳湖生态经济区的建设研究四个方面对现有研究文献进行梳理和总结,发现现有研究对鄱阳湖生态经济区的资源、环境与社会经济发展的协调性研究不足。由此,本文通过规范性研究,首先对协调性的概念、内涵进行了界定。协调性是指系统中的子系统及构成要素间具有合作、互补、同步等多种关联关系,以及由于这些关联关系使系统呈现出的协调结构和状态;从总量、结构和速度三个方面对协调性进行了界定。对资源、环境与社会经济协调发展的影响因素和内在机理进行了分析。影响因素分为内在因素和外在因素,资源系统、环境系统和社会经济发展系统作为三个子系统,相互支撑、相互依存、相互促进,形成一个大的区域生态共生系统,共同协调发展,从而达到资源结构合理、资源丰度合适、资源再生能力强、环境污染少、自净能力强、承载能力强、经济快速发展、经济结构合理、经济效益高的区域发展目标。(2)从资源系统、环境系统、社会经济发展系统、协调性指数四个方面提出资源、环境与社会经济发展协调性的评价指标体系。该指标体系分为资源开发利用、环境污染治理、社会经济发展、协调性四个层面,资源开发利用指标包括资源存量、资源创造量、资源消耗量三个一级指标,13个二级指标;环境污染治理指标包括环境污染、环境治理、生态抗逆能力三个一级指标,20个二级指标;社会经济发展包括经济规模总量、经济结构、经济质量、生活水平四个一级指标,24个二级指标;协调性指标只计算协调性综合指数,资源与经济的协调性、环境与经济的协调性,可从系统层面、速度层面和发展状态层面计算。(3)从系统耦合协调、速度发展协调、发展状态协调三个层面,对鄱阳湖生态经济区的32个县市的资源、环境和社会经济发展的协调性进行了评价。结果显示:南昌各地区资源系统与经济系统的协调性在缓慢地逐渐变好,总体协调性在改善。而九江、景德镇、鹰潭、抚州和新余部分县处于基本协调或弱协调状态。各地区环境系统与经济系统的协调性均处于比较协调之上,说明各地区环境保护意识较强。运用灰色关联分析对速度协调性进行评价,测算出资源消耗速度与经济发展速度的协调性,结果显示:南昌地区的协调状态趋于好转;九江、抚州和新余地区资源消耗速度较快,但都有改善;景德镇和鹰潭地区的系数则较低。测算出的环境优化速度与经济发展速度协调性则表明,各地区系数总体高于能耗系数。运用回归模型对发展状态协调性进行评价。结果显示:在资源系统与经济系统发展状态协调性评价中,南昌、鹰潭、抚州和新余地区的协调性都有所改善;九江的部分地区及景德镇地区的协调属于弱协调状态,应用加强对资源的保护性开发利用。环境系统与经济系统发展状态的协调性一般高于资源系统与经济系统的状态协调性,鄱阳湖地区环境保护意识较强。从整体来看环境与经济系统的协调性要好于资源与经济系统的协调性,说明近年来,鄱阳湖生态经济区的自然资源在经济加速发展过程中存在过度开发,资源受到较大的破坏,湿地面积大幅减少,枯水期拉长等;环境方面虽然近年来,环境保护意识加强,环境保护投资不断加大,环境治理力度也不断加大,但是也还存在一些问题,如三废排放管控不严,污染排放与污染治理严重不对等,森林土地防护措施不力,生态可持续发展意识淡薄,生态环境质量动态监测不完善等问题。(4)不分县市,将鄱阳湖生态经济看成一个整体区域,构建了资源系统、环境系统、社会经济系统的系统动力学结构流图模型,来探讨每一个系统内部各因素的作用机理,并构建了每一个系统的模拟方程,用于预测在协调发展背景下,每一个系统的主要指标变化趋势。资源系统预测了资源储量、资源可用量、资源开发规模到2020年的变化趋势;环境子系统预测了废水排放总量、固体废弃物排放总量、废气排放总量、环境污染指数到2020年的变化趋势。社会经济子系统预测了经济总量的变化趋势。在资源系统方面分析结果表明:资源开采技术进步对资源开发规模影响最大,资源可用量次之,资源开发利用率产生的影响最小。在环境系统方面结果表明对环境污染指数影响最大的是废气排放总量,其次是废水排放总量,最后是固体废物排放总量。对经济增长总量进行模拟分析表明,消费水平对GDP的拉动最大,其次是环境保护投资增加,最后是资源创新价值增加。根据这些预测分析提出了促进鄱阳湖地区资源环境与社会经济协调发展的对策。在资源方面:优化城镇土地资源配置,提升经济建设基础保障水平;加快区域产业优化布局,提高资源与经济协调度;建设林业,扩大绿地面积,改善森林质量;对于矿产和森林资源,采取保护性开采策略。在环境方面:定期对生态经济区的环境善进行评价;加强污染防治和主要污染物总量减排;加强对污染的治理,整治污染严重企业;调整三产结构,发展环保产业;大力推进绿色生态农业的发展;建设生态城市,县生态园区和生态村;对生态经济区的FDI进行调整。(5)根据《鄱阳湖生态经济区规划》目标,预测在协调发展背景下的主要目标变量值,运用回归分析得到目标变量和控制变量的约束方程,构建经济区资源、环境与社会经济协调发展的多目标规划模型。采用模式搜索算法,Matlab编程,变换不同目标顺序求解(第一次为经济发展目标为第一目标,资源环境为第二目标;第二次是资源环境为第一目标,经济发展为第二目标),给出了未来5年,鄱阳湖生态经济区在追求经济发展目标下的发展路径和追求资源环境目标下的发展路径。从求解结果可以看到,经济目标和资源目标都能达到,特别是产业结构水平达到我国发达地区水平,生态区生态资源保护较好,资源节约和资源保护意识非常强,资源节约和资源利用都超过预定目标值。但是环境目标无论是在哪一种目标顺序下,都未能达到规划目标。这主要是因为工业的发展,人口增长和生活水平的提高带来不利影响;二是由于环境治理投入力度严重不足,治理措施执行不力。因此,生态区未来的环境治理任务还是比较艰巨的。为了保护鄱阳湖生态经济区“一湖清水”的良好生态环境,需要进一步加大环境保护与环境治理投入力度。鄱阳湖生态经济区有些企业的减排意识还是非常弱,污染排放标准执行不力;还有近年来为了政府绩效,发展工业,招商引资,产业转移也加重了生态区的污染排放。因此,鄱阳湖生态区在今后的发展过程中,要进一步加大环保意识宣传,使生态环保理念深入人心;同时采取有效的措施对企业进行约束。
[Abstract]:Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, located in the northern part of Jiangxi province and the South Bank of the Yangtze River. It is an important wetland with the influence of the world. In the previous economic development, the ecological environment in Poyang Lake district was seriously damaged, and faced with the increasingly severe threat of water pollution and the degradation of wetlands. In December 12, 2009, the State Council formally issued the Poyang Lake eco economic zone planning, which embodies the state's attention to the construction and development of Poyang Lake eco economic zone. It also indicates that its ecological development has a pivotal position in the central and even the whole country. The purpose of the plan is to build the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone into a world. The coordination of ecological civilization and economic and social development, the ecological economic demonstration area with harmony between human and nature and China's low carbon development zone. The coordinated development of the region is a dynamic process. The whole regional system wants to achieve the best effect, and the three subsystems of resources, environment and social economy interact with each other and develop in a coordinated and consistent way. At the initial stage of regional development, people tend to pay more attention to economic growth, not to consider the harmonious development of resources and environment as consideration, ignoring the resulting imbalance in the development of resources and environment, resulting in the hindered economic development. Therefore, the coordination relationship between regional economic growth and rational utilization of resources and environmental optimization is very important. Therefore, this paper takes the Poyang Lake eco economic zone as the research object, through systematically combing the current research status at home and abroad and defining the connotations of coordination, taking the coordination of resource environment and social economy as the breakthrough point, it has carried out a more in-depth study on the coordinated development and future planning of resources, environment and social economy in Poyang Lake eco economic zone. Theoretical analysis and empirical research. Firstly, it defines the connotation and characteristics of coordination, design coordination evaluation index system, establish the index database of Poyang Lake ecological area, secondly, coordinate evaluation method from the angle of system coupling to the development of ecological zone since 2005. The system dynamics model of the ecological area is used to predict the change trend of the main factors of the system, and the countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of the resource environment and the social economy in the ecoeconomic zone are put forward. The development of the ecological zone in the next 5 years is planned through the establishment of a multi-objective planning model. The main research work and conclusion are summarized as follows: (1) from the resource environment Four aspects of the theoretical research, empirical research, coordination research and the construction research of Poyang Lake eco economic zone are combed and summarized, and the coordination of existing research on resources, environment and social and economic development in Poyang Lake eco economic zone is insufficient. It first defines the concept and connotation of coordination, which refers to the cooperation, complementarity and synchronization among the subsystems and components in the system, as well as the coordination structure and state of the system, as well as the three aspects of the total amount, structure and speed. The influence factors and internal mechanism of the coordinated development of resources, environment and social economy are analyzed. The influencing factors are divided into internal and external factors. The resources system, the environmental system and the social and economic development system are three subsystems, supporting each other, interdependent and mutually promoting, forming a large regional ecological symbiotic system. With the coordinated development, we can achieve the regional development target of reasonable resource structure, suitable resources abundance, strong resource regeneration ability, less environmental pollution, strong self purification, strong carrying capacity, rapid economic development, reasonable economic structure and high economic efficiency. (2) from the resources system, environmental system, social economic development system and coordination index in four aspects. The index system is divided into four levels: resource development and utilization, environmental pollution control, social economic development and coordination. The index of resource development and utilization includes resources stock, resource creation, resource consumption, three first level indicators, 13 two level indicators, and environmental pollution control. The indicators include environmental pollution, environmental control, and ecological resistance to three first grade indicators, 20 two level indicators; social and economic development includes total economic scale, economic structure, economic quality, the level of living four first level indicators, 24 two level indicators; coordination indicators only calculate the coordination comprehensive index, the coordination of resources and economy, environment and classics The coordination of Francis can be calculated from the system level, the speed level and the development state level. (3) from the system coupling coordination, the speed development coordination and the development state coordination, the coordination of the resources, environment and social and economic development of 32 counties and cities in Poyang Lake eco economic zone is evaluated. The results show that the resources system of each region of Nanchang and the resources system of each region of the region The coordination of the economic system is gradually becoming better and the overall coordination is improving, while some counties in Jiujiang, Jingdezhen, Yingtan, Fuzhou and Xinyu are in the basic coordination or weak coordination state. The coordination of the environmental and economic systems in each region is on the basis of comparative coordination, indicating that the environmental protection consciousness of each region is stronger. The coordination of speed coordination was evaluated, and the coordination between the speed of resource consumption and the speed of economic development was calculated. The results showed that the coordination state of Nanchang area tended to improve; the resources consumed in Jiujiang, Fuzhou and Xinyu were faster, but both were improved; the coefficients of Jingdezhen and Yingtan were lower. The speed of environmental optimization and the economy were calculated. The development speed coordination shows that the regional coefficient is generally higher than the energy consumption coefficient. The regression model is used to evaluate the development state coordination. The results show that the coordination of Nanchang, Yingtan, Fuzhou and Xinyu has improved in the coordination evaluation of the development state of the resource system and the economic system; in parts of Jiujiang and Jingdezhen. The coordination of the environment system and the economic system development state is generally higher than the state coordination between the resource system and the economic system. The environmental protection awareness in Poyang Lake is stronger. The coordination of the environment and the economic system is better than the resources and the classics from the whole. The coordination of the economic system shows that in recent years, the natural resources of Poyang Lake eco economic zone have been overexploited in the process of accelerating economic development, the resources have been greatly destroyed, the area of wetland has been greatly reduced, the period of dry water is elongated, and so on. Although the environmental protection has been strengthened in recent years, the environmental protection investment is increasing, the environmental protection is increasing, and the environmental governance is being managed. The degree is also increasing, but there are still some problems, such as the strict control of the emission of the three wastes, the unequal pollution discharge and the pollution control, the poor protection measures of the forest land, the weak awareness of the ecological sustainable development and the imperfect dynamic monitoring of the ecological environment. (4) the ecological economy of Poyang Lake is regarded as a whole area without the county and city. The system dynamics structure flow graph model of resource system, environment system and social economic system is constructed to explore the mechanism of each factor in each system, and the simulation equation of each system is constructed to predict the main index change trend of each system in the context of coordinated development. Resource system predicts resource storage. Quantity, resource amount, resource development scale change trend in 2020; environmental subsystem forecast the total amount of waste water discharge, total amount of solid waste, total emission of waste gas, environmental pollution index to 2020. The social and economic subsystem forecast the change trend of economic total. The development of source mining technology has the greatest impact on the scale of resources development, the amount of resources can be used, and the impact of resource utilization ratio is the smallest. In the environmental system, the results show that the largest impact of the environmental pollution index is the total emission of waste gas, followed by the total amount of waste water discharge, and the total amount of solid waste emissions. The simulation analysis shows that the consumption level has the greatest pull on GDP, followed by the increase of environmental protection investment and the increase in the value of resource innovation. According to these forecasts, the countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of the resource environment and the social economy in Poyang Lake are put forward. In the resource aspect, the allocation of land resources in cities and towns is optimized and the economic construction is promoted. The level of protection, the optimization of regional industrial distribution, the improvement of the coordination degree of resources and economy, the construction of forestry, the expansion of the green area, the improvement of the forest quality, the protective mining strategy for the mineral and forest resources, the environmental assessment of the environmental good in the ecological economic Zone, and the enhancement of the pollution control and the emission reduction of the main pollutants; Strong pollution control, harnessing serious pollution enterprises, adjusting three production structure, developing environmental protection industry, vigorously promoting the development of green ecological agriculture, building ecological city, County Ecological Park and ecological village, adjusting the FDI of eco economic zone. (5) according to the target of "Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Planning >", the main objectives of the coordinated development background are predicted. The value of the standard variable, the regression analysis is used to obtain the constraint equations of the target variable and the control variable, and the multi-objective programming model of the economic zone resources and the coordinated development of the environment and the social economy is constructed. The model search algorithm and Matlab programming are used to transform the order of different targets (the first goal for economic development is the first goal, and the resource environment is second orders. " The second time is the first goal of the resource environment and the second goal of economic development. The development path of Poyang Lake eco economic zone under the goal of pursuing economic development and the development path under the target of resource and environment are given for the next 5 years. From the result of the solution, it can be seen that both the economic target and the resource target can be reached, especially the industrial structure. The level reaches the level of the developed regions in China, the ecological resource protection is good, the consciousness of resource conservation and resource conservation is very strong, and the resource conservation and resource utilization are all beyond the predetermined target value. However, under the target order, the environmental targets have not reached the planning target. This is mainly due to the development of industry, population growth and the development of the environment. The improvement of living standards has adverse effects. Two is due to the serious shortage of investment in environmental governance and poor implementation of governance measures. Therefore, the environmental management task of the ecological area is still difficult. In order to protect the good ecological environment of "one lake clean water" in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone, the environmental protection and environment need to be further increased. The emission reduction awareness of some enterprises in Poyang Lake eco economic zone is still very weak, the pollution emission standards are not carried out, and in recent years, for the government performance, the development of industry, investment and investment, industrial transfer also aggravates the pollution of the ecological zone. Therefore, the Poyang Lake ecological zone should be further increased in the future development process. The awareness of environmental protection promotes the concept of environmental protection and takes effective measures to restrict enterprises.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X24;F127

【参考文献】