陕西省旅游业发展对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 19:57

本文选题：旅游业 + 经济增长　；参考：《西北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,陕西省旅游业在国民经济中的地位越来越凸显,2012年的旅游总收入已占到陕西省GDP (Gross Domestic Product)的11.85%,陕西省政府也将旅游业视为第三产业中的重要产业,国民经济中新的增长点。因此,研究陕西省旅游业发展对经济增长的影响十分必要。首先,本文采用定性的分析方法对陕西省旅游业的发展现状进行分析,从陕西省的旅游资源禀赋和旅游业发展的外部环境来看,陕西省具备大力发展旅游业的条件。其次采用计量经济学的协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等方法,借助Eviews6.0软件对代表旅游业发展与经济增长水平的两变量旅游总收入和GDP的关系进行检验。检验结果显示旅游总收入与GDP之间存在长期协整关系,且经济增长对旅游业发展的贡献要大于旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献。Granger因果检验也表明短期内经济增长与旅游业发展存在单向因果关系,脉冲响应与方差分解分析进一步显示了旅游总收入与GDP的具体作用过程,同样得出旅游业发展对经济增长的促进作用以及旅游业自身缺乏自我强化机制。本文同时从财政收入、第三产业产值、就业以及出口创汇的角度分析了旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献作用。最后,根据实证分析结果,提出扩大旅游业整体经济规模、提高旅游经营水平、加强区域旅游经济合作和拓宽筹资渠道等提高陕西省旅游业发展水平的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, tourism industry in Shaanxi Province has become more and more prominent in the national economy. The total tourism revenue in 2012 has accounted for 11.85% of GDP Gross Domestic Product in Shaanxi Province. The Shaanxi Provincial Government also regards tourism as an important industry in the tertiary industry. A new growth point in the national economy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of Shaanxi tourism development on economic growth. First of all, this paper uses qualitative analysis method to analyze the present situation of tourism development in Shaanxi Province. From the perspective of the natural endowment of tourism resources and the external environment of tourism development in Shaanxi Province, Shaanxi Province has the conditions for vigorously developing tourism. Secondly, using econometrics cointegration test Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition, the paper uses Eviews6.0 software to test the relationship between tourism gross income and GDP, which represent the level of tourism development and economic growth. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between total tourism income and GDP. And the contribution of economic growth to tourism development is greater than that of tourism development. Granger causality test also shows that there is a one-way causal relationship between economic growth and tourism development in the short term. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis further show the specific process of tourism gross income and GDP, and also draw the conclusion that tourism development promotes economic growth and the tourism itself lacks self-strengthening mechanism. At the same time, this paper analyzes the contribution of tourism development to economic growth from the perspectives of fiscal revenue, tertiary industry output value, employment and foreign exchange earning from exports. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the level of tourism development in Shaanxi Province, such as expanding the overall economic scale of tourism, improving the level of tourism management, strengthening regional tourism economic cooperation and broadening the channels of financing.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7;F127

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