哈尔滨入境旅游市场客源分析与预测

发布时间：2018-06-14 16:17

本文选题：哈尔滨旅游 + 入境旅游市场　；参考：《东北林业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：哈尔滨旅游产业经历了多年的快速发展,已成为哈尔滨的战略性支柱产业。充分挖掘统计资源的潜在价值,深入研究旅游市场需求特征,对于准确把握产业发展脉络,科学制定战略决策,提升旅游产业核心竞争力,为旅游者提供更加优质的服务,具有较强的实用价值。本文研究了到访哈尔滨的入境旅游者客源结构特征。以期明确客源主体定位,预测旅游者流量,探究市场需求的影响因素,发现旅游市场变化趋势,为优化旅游产业结构、完善旅游规划设计、促进旅游市场开发、提升旅游服务质量提供决策依据。在查阅比较相关文献后,以哈尔滨2009年至2012年旅游抽样调查的原始数据为基础,采用时空分布指数分析了客源结构的稳定性,采用波士顿矩阵模型进行客源市场主体定位,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了入境旅游者未来几年的游客量,运用灰色关联分析结合基础性描述分析的方法研究了客源市场的影响因素。研究结果表明：一是哈尔滨的入境旅游市场客源结构比较稳定。客源市场主体呈多元化趋势。客源分析结果在未来一段时期内具有较强的参考价值。二是哈尔滨的入境旅游市场表现出客源结构高端化、游客年龄青年化、出游方式自助化、旅游信息网络化、旅游服务快捷化等新趋势。旅游产业需要向质量经济转型升级,旅游产品与服务需要更多的个性化和人性化。三是在数量经济模式下,哈尔滨的旅游市场趋于饱和。住宿承载能力、交通运输能力将成为主要制约因素。旅游产业规模偏小、对弹性市场需求的竞争力不足、缺少代表性的旅游吸引物将成为质量经济模式中的首要问题。
[Abstract]:Harbin tourism industry has experienced many years of rapid development, has become the strategic pillar industry of Harbin. Fully excavating the potential value of statistical resources, deeply studying the characteristics of tourism market demand, accurately grasp the development context of the industry, scientifically formulate strategic decisions, enhance the core competitiveness of the tourism industry, and provide more high-quality services for tourists. It has strong practical value. This paper studies the structural characteristics of inbound tourists in Harbin. In order to define the main position of tourist source, forecast the flow of tourists, explore the influencing factors of market demand, find out the changing trend of tourism market, optimize the structure of tourism industry, perfect tourism planning and design, and promote the development of tourism market. To improve the quality of tourism service to provide decision-making basis. Based on the original data of Harbin tourism sample survey from 2009 to 2012, the stability of tourist source structure is analyzed by using time-space distribution index, and Boston matrix model is used to locate the main body of tourist market. The grey GM-1) model is used to predict the tourist volume of inbound tourists in the next few years, and the influence factors of tourist market are studied by using the method of grey relational analysis combined with basic description analysis. The results show that: first, the tourist source structure of the inbound tourism market in Harbin is relatively stable. The main body of the tourist market shows a trend of diversification. The result of tourist source analysis has strong reference value in the future period. Secondly, the inbound tourism market in Harbin shows some new trends, such as the high-end structure of tourists, the age and youth of tourists, the self-help of the way of traveling, the networking of tourism information, the quickening of tourism services, and so on. Tourism industry needs to transform to quality economy, tourism products and services need more personalization and humanization. Third, under the model of quantity economy, the tourism market of Harbin tends to be saturated. Accommodation carrying capacity, transportation capacity will be the main constraints. The scale of tourism industry is small, the competitiveness of flexible market demand is not enough, and the lack of representative tourism attraction will become the most important problem in the quality economic model.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7

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