人民币升值对我国纺织品贸易收支影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 01:06

本文关键词： 人民币汇率纺织品贸易收支 GDP 协整检验　出处：《贵州财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自改革开放之后我国纺织业一直在高速的发展，纺织品的出口额也在不断扩大。我国纺织业对纺织品的进出口贸易有很大的依赖性。汇率在国际贸易中直接影响商品价格和货款结算，而自2005年我国汇率制度改革以来，人民币一直处于升值的态势之中，那么人民币升值对我国纺织品贸易收支到底会产生怎么样的影响，会产生什么样的结果？笔者为了研究这一问题，先从国内外诸多学者的研究成果着手，阅读大量有关汇率对贸易影响这一课题的研究文献，发现国内外的专家学者对于这一问题并没能得出一个大家都认可的结论。本文在文献资料的基础上，论述了汇率决定理论以及汇率影响贸易收支的理论和传到途径，理论分析人民币汇率变动对我国纺织品贸易收支的影响。然后运用计量经济学的知识，选定模型、变量对上述问题进行实证研究，选取1981年-2010年的年度数据作为样本，期间采用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验来确定人民币汇率和纺织业贸易收支之间的数量关系。得出了人民币实际汇率的变动对我国纺织品进口影响比较显著，而对我国纺织品的出口产生的影响并不显著，同时，我国居民收入和世界GDP对我国纺织品贸易收支会产生显著的影响。本文的研究内容主要分为五个部分。第一部分是导论，说明本文的研究背景和研究意义以及研究方法、结构安排，同时阐述本文的创新和不足之处。第二部分是文献综述，学习、研究、分析国内外学者关于这一课题和相近课题的研究成果，总结其中的精华和不足。第三部分是人民汇率和我国纺织业的现状分析，介绍汇率决定理论，回顾人民币汇率变动历史，研究现状；研究我国纺织业的发展历程和进出口历史和现状。第四部分是理论分析人民币升值对我国纺织品贸易收支的影响，介绍汇率对贸易收支影响的分析理论，从理论角度分析人民币升值对我国纺织品贸易的影响效应。随后是实证研究，运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验来发掘人民币实际汇率和我国纺织品贸易收支之间的数量关系。第五部分是根据本文的研究成果为政府和纺织企业提出一些建议对策。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's textile industry has been developing at a high speed. The export volume of textiles is also expanding. China's textile industry depends heavily on the import and export trade of textiles. Exchange rate directly affects commodity prices and payment settlement in international trade. Since 2005, China's exchange rate system has been reformed. The RMB has been in the situation of appreciation, so the appreciation of the RMB on China's textile trade revenue and expenditure in the end what kind of impact, what will be the result? In order to study this problem, the author begins with the research achievements of many scholars at home and abroad, and reads a large number of research documents on the subject of the impact of exchange rate on trade. It is found that experts and scholars at home and abroad have not reached a conclusion that everyone agrees with this problem. Based on the literature, this paper discusses the theory of exchange rate determination and the theory and transmission of exchange rate influencing trade balance. Theoretical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's textile trade income and expenditure. Then using econometric knowledge, selected models, variables to empirical study of the above issues, select the annual data from 1981 to 2010 as samples. During this period, unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test were used to determine the quantitative relationship between RMB exchange rate and trade balance of textile industry. At the same time, the income of Chinese residents and GDP of the world will have a significant impact on China's textile trade receipts and expenditures. The research content of this paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction, which explains the research background and significance, the research method, the structure arrangement, the innovation and the deficiency of this paper. The second part is the literature review. To study, study, and analyze the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on this topic and related topics, and summarize the essence and shortcomings. The third part is the analysis of the current situation of the people's exchange rate and China's textile industry, and introduces the theory of exchange rate determination. Reviewing the history and current situation of RMB exchange rate change, studying the development course, import and export history and current situation of China's textile industry. Part 4th is a theoretical analysis of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's textile trade income and expenditure. This paper introduces the analysis theory of the effect of exchange rate on trade balance, analyzes the effect of RMB appreciation on China's textile trade from a theoretical point of view. The cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to explore the quantitative relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB and China's textile trade income and expenditure. Part 5th is based on the research results of this paper to put forward some suggestions for the government and textile enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F426.81;F832.6

【参考文献】