市场需求对钢铁行业产能配置的非对称动态调整机制研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 19:51

本文选题：市场诱导 + 非对称效应　；参考：《南京师大学报(社会科学版)》2014年04期

【摘要】：本文以钢铁行业为例,揭示市场需求对投资和产能配置的作用机制和效应。在构建包含需求动态缺口的理论模型的基础上,本文选择2003年以来钢铁行业的季度数据,运用时变参数模型对需求诱导下产能配置的非对称性调整机制进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,需求引致性投资动态及其非对称周期运动使钢铁产能的形成与退出两阶段呈现出明显的非对称特征;在供需形势频繁转换的情形下产能的自身修正机制作用有限,一旦产能偏离均衡程度超出自身调整机制阈值,将无法通过市场调节向均衡回复,由此产生超乎寻常的"试错"成本。准确把握上述规律是实现市场在资源配置中起决定性作用的同时,更好地发挥政府作用的前提。
[Abstract]:Taking the iron and steel industry as an example, this paper reveals the mechanism and effect of market demand on investment and capacity allocation. Based on the theoretical model including the dynamic gap of demand, this paper selects the quarterly data of steel industry since 2003, and uses the time-varying parameter model to empirically test the asymmetric adjustment mechanism of capacity allocation induced by demand. The results show that the demand-induced investment dynamic and its asymmetric cycle movement make the formation and exit of steel capacity show obvious asymmetric characteristics. Under the situation of frequent change of supply and demand situation, the self-correction mechanism of production capacity is limited. Once the capacity deviates from the equilibrium degree and exceeds the threshold of its own adjustment mechanism, it will not be able to return to the equilibrium through market regulation. This results in extraordinary "trial and error" costs. It is a prerequisite for the market to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources and to play a better role in the government.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJD790032) 吉林省科技厅软科学项目(20110616)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F426.31

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