中国石油企业跨国并购风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 14:44

本文选题：石油企业 + 跨国并购　；参考：《哈尔滨理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国已成为仅次于美国的第二大石油消费国。据中国能源信息网数据显示,2011年原油消费已突破3亿吨,且我国石油对外依存率高达55%。估计到2050年,我国石油供需缺口将达到3～3.5亿吨。因此,中国石油企业实施国际化经营已成必然选择。由于我国石油企业“走出去”比较晚,在跨国并购风险认识上缺少经验。况且石油企业的跨国并购将面临能源问题的政治敏感性,资本投入大,信息不对称,环保要求等等诸多因素的影响,具有很高的风险性。因此,我国石油企业想要在以后的跨国并购中减少失败,就必须对并购项目进行准确的风险评价。本文首先从企业并购,企业跨国并购,石油企业跨国并购等三方面介绍了国内外风险评价研究的研究理论。接着中国三大石油公司的跨国并购历史沿革以及近十年跨国并购成功和失败案例进行分析研究。利用德尔菲识别法识别出中国石油跨国并购风险因素,再运用层次分析法和灰色综合评价法,建立了风险评估模型：灰色多层次评估模型。利用评估模型对风险因素进行风险评估,风险评估结果表明,外部环境风险是此项目最主要的风险,其次是决策阶段风险,实施阶段风险,整合风险。其中政治风险是外部环境风险中最主要的风险因素,决策失误风险是决策阶段风险中的重点因素,融资风险是实施阶段风险比较重要,经营整合风险是整合阶段风险中的重点防范因素。根据风险评估结果提出针对13项风险因素的风险处置策略和风险控制策略。
[Abstract]:China has become the second largest oil consumer after the United States. According to China Energy Information Network, crude oil consumption exceeded 300 million tons in 2011, and China's oil dependence rate reached 55 percent. It is estimated that by 2050, China's oil supply and demand gap will reach 3 to 350 million tons. Therefore, the implementation of international management of Chinese oil enterprises has become an inevitable choice. Because our country petroleum enterprise "go out" relatively late, in cross-border merger and acquisition risk cognition lack of experience. Moreover, transnational mergers and acquisitions of oil enterprises will face the political sensitivity of energy problems, large capital investment, asymmetric information, environmental protection requirements and many other factors, which have a high risk. Therefore, in order to reduce the failure in the future cross-border mergers and acquisitions, the petroleum enterprises of our country must carry on the accurate risk evaluation to the M & A project. First, this article starts with the enterprise M & A, the enterprise transnational M & A, This paper introduces the research theory of risk evaluation at home and abroad from three aspects: transnational M & A of petroleum enterprises. Then, the history of transnational M & A and the successful and failed cases of cross-border M & A in recent ten years are analyzed and studied. The risk factors of cross-border M & A of PetroChina were identified by Delphi identification method, and then the risk assessment model: grey multi-level evaluation model was established by using AHP and grey comprehensive evaluation method. The risk assessment results show that the external environment risk is the most important risk, followed by the decision stage risk, the implementation phase risk, and the integration risk. Among them, the political risk is the main risk factor in the external environment risk, the decision-making error risk is the key factor in the decision-making stage risk, the financing risk is the implementation stage risk is more important. The risk of management integration is the key prevention factor in the risk of integration stage. According to the results of risk assessment, the risk disposal strategy and risk control strategy for 13 risk factors are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.22;F271

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