基于DCF法的黑石股份有限公司股东权益价值评估
发布时间：2018-08-08 11:41
【摘要】：随着相关法规的逐步出台，资产评估业务在现代经济中开始发挥越来越多的作用，特别是对公司上市、企业并购和以财务报表为目的资产评估业务的要求越来越多，从而使得企业价值评估事务的重要性得以体现。 企业内在价值不是资产的简单加和，短期盈利能力的度量，而是在持续经营的假设下反映行业前景、未来战略规划和投资人未来收益之间的因果关系，为企业决策和理性投资提供指导和方向。本文首先总结了国内外关于企业价值评估的研究，再根据经典的现代公司价值评估理论，针对主流的四种主要价值评估方法进行分析比较，主要考虑企业状况、价值驱动因素、参数的可取得性，贴合其对具体实务的要求--资源类企业，选择了自由现金流量折现法（DCF），并在众多资源类企业中选择了数据真实、行业地位稳定、现金流稳定、市场风险易于衡量的拟上市公司--黑石股份有限公司的全部股东权益进行评估。接着论文在此基础上进行了五个方面的探讨。首先进行方法选择的时候，从价值驱动因素的角度分析各种方法的适用性，肯定了收益法对于该类企业主要价值驱动因素的定性和定量的反映。然后根据企业的特点建立DCF模型，确定需要用到的基本参数。接着对黑石股份有限公司的现状、行业、宏观经济环境分析。接着结合企业历史数据，对企业未来的经营状况进行预测，并且将这种预测转化为自由现金流量；同时针对行业比对，，在抽取同类上市企业的数据进行线性回归分析得出beta值，运用修正后的资本资产定价模型求出加权资本成本；用两者求出经营性资产价值，加上溢余净资产价值并剔除付息债务，最终计算出公司的全部股东权益价值。本文就评估值的增值原因以及评估过程中导致偏离真实值的因素加以分析。最后通过测算加权平均资本成本和主营业务收入增长率的敏感度，发掘影响企业股东权益价值的关键因素，以帮助企业经营者和所有者未来制定企业发展方向，以提高股东收益。
[Abstract]:With the gradual introduction of relevant laws and regulations, the business of asset evaluation has begun to play a more and more important role in the modern economy, especially the requirements for the listing of companies, mergers and acquisitions of enterprises and the business of asset evaluation for the purpose of financial statements. So that the importance of enterprise value evaluation can be reflected. The intrinsic value of an enterprise is not a simple sum of assets, a measure of short-term profitability, but a causal relationship between industry prospects, future strategic planning and investors' future earnings under the assumption of going concern. To provide guidance and direction for enterprise decision-making and rational investment. This paper first summarizes the domestic and foreign research on enterprise value evaluation, and then, according to the classical modern company value evaluation theory, analyzes and compares the main four main valuation methods, mainly considering the status of the enterprise, value driving factors. The availability of the parameters meets the specific practical requirements of the resource enterprise, chooses the free cash flow discounted method (DCF),) and chooses the real data, stable industry status and stable cash flow among the many resource enterprises. Market risk is easy to measure for the proposed listed company-Blackstone Co., Ltd. to assess the full shareholder equity. Then the paper discusses five aspects on this basis. Firstly, when we choose the method, we analyze the applicability of various methods from the angle of value driving factor, and confirm the qualitative and quantitative reflection of income approach to the main value driving factor of this kind of enterprise. Then the DCF model is established according to the characteristics of the enterprise, and the basic parameters are determined. Then the status of Blackstone Co., Ltd., industry, macroeconomic environment analysis. Then combined with the enterprise history data, the future business situation of the enterprise is predicted, and this forecast is transformed into free cash flow. At the same time, according to the industry comparison, the beta value is obtained by linear regression analysis in extracting the data of the similar listed enterprises. The weighted capital cost is calculated by using the modified capital asset pricing model, and the value of the operating assets is calculated by both, plus the surplus net asset value and the interest-paying debt, and the total shareholder equity value of the company is finally calculated. This paper analyzes the reasons for the increment of the evaluation value and the factors that lead to the deviation from the true value in the evaluation process. Finally, by measuring the sensitivity of the weighted average capital cost and the growth rate of the main business income, the key factors affecting the equity value of the shareholders are explored to help the enterprise managers and owners to formulate the future development direction of the enterprise. To raise shareholder returns.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.21
[Abstract]:With the gradual introduction of relevant laws and regulations, the business of asset evaluation has begun to play a more and more important role in the modern economy, especially the requirements for the listing of companies, mergers and acquisitions of enterprises and the business of asset evaluation for the purpose of financial statements. So that the importance of enterprise value evaluation can be reflected. The intrinsic value of an enterprise is not a simple sum of assets, a measure of short-term profitability, but a causal relationship between industry prospects, future strategic planning and investors' future earnings under the assumption of going concern. To provide guidance and direction for enterprise decision-making and rational investment. This paper first summarizes the domestic and foreign research on enterprise value evaluation, and then, according to the classical modern company value evaluation theory, analyzes and compares the main four main valuation methods, mainly considering the status of the enterprise, value driving factors. The availability of the parameters meets the specific practical requirements of the resource enterprise, chooses the free cash flow discounted method (DCF),) and chooses the real data, stable industry status and stable cash flow among the many resource enterprises. Market risk is easy to measure for the proposed listed company-Blackstone Co., Ltd. to assess the full shareholder equity. Then the paper discusses five aspects on this basis. Firstly, when we choose the method, we analyze the applicability of various methods from the angle of value driving factor, and confirm the qualitative and quantitative reflection of income approach to the main value driving factor of this kind of enterprise. Then the DCF model is established according to the characteristics of the enterprise, and the basic parameters are determined. Then the status of Blackstone Co., Ltd., industry, macroeconomic environment analysis. Then combined with the enterprise history data, the future business situation of the enterprise is predicted, and this forecast is transformed into free cash flow. At the same time, according to the industry comparison, the beta value is obtained by linear regression analysis in extracting the data of the similar listed enterprises. The weighted capital cost is calculated by using the modified capital asset pricing model, and the value of the operating assets is calculated by both, plus the surplus net asset value and the interest-paying debt, and the total shareholder equity value of the company is finally calculated. This paper analyzes the reasons for the increment of the evaluation value and the factors that lead to the deviation from the true value in the evaluation process. Finally, by measuring the sensitivity of the weighted average capital cost and the growth rate of the main business income, the key factors affecting the equity value of the shareholders are explored to help the enterprise managers and owners to formulate the future development direction of the enterprise. To raise shareholder returns.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F426.21
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 贺琼;杨朝艳;;基于收益法构建企业价值评估模型[J];财会月刊;2010年18期
2 张静;田月昕;何娜;;现金流量折现法在煤炭企业价值评估中的应用[J];当代经济;2008年01期
3 李延喜,郭晓e
本文编号：2171680
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/shengchanguanlilunwen/2171680.html
