财政科技投入周期与经济周期协同性的马尔科夫区制转移模型

发布时间：2018-04-28 12:35

本文选题：财政科技投入周期 + 经济周期　；参考：《中国科技论坛》2015年03期

【摘要】：基于三阶段马尔科夫区制转移模型,对改革开放以来的财政科技投入周期和经济周期的动态过程进行阶段性变迁识别与协同性分析。研究发现:财政科技投入周期与GDP周期中存在着低速增长、适度增长和高速增长三种区制,并以一定的概率水平相互转化;财政科技投入处于低速增长和高速增长阶段的持续性与波动性强于同一阶段上的GDP,而处于适速增长阶段的持续性和波动性则弱于该阶段上的GDP;20世纪90年代初是财政科技投入周期与GDP周期同步与否的分水岭。在此之前,财政科技投入周期与GDP周期是非协同的,在此之后,先表现出静态协同关系,后呈现出动态协同关系,但是与财政科技投入周期相比,宏观经济周期具有一定的时间滞后性。
[Abstract]:Based on the three-stage Markov system transfer model, the dynamic process of the financial investment cycle and the economic cycle since the reform and opening up has been identified and coordinated. It is found that there are three regional systems in the cycle of financial investment in science and technology and in the cycle of GDP: low growth, moderate growth and high speed growth, and they are transformed to each other at a certain probability level; The sustainability and volatility of fiscal investment in the stage of low growth and high growth are stronger than that of GDPP at the same stage, while the persistence and volatility of investment at the stage of moderate growth are weaker than that of GDPG at this stage in the early 1990s. Political science and technology investment cycle and GDP cycle synchronization or not the watershed. Before this, the financial science and technology input cycle and the GDP cycle are non-synergetic. After this, there is a static synergy relationship, then a dynamic synergy relationship, but compared with the financial science and technology investment cycle, Macroeconomic cycle has a certain time lag.
【作者单位】：东北农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金项目(2013M540267) 国家自然基金面上项目(71173035);国家自然基金青年项目(71303039)
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.8

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