中国财政政策冲击的识别与效应——符号约束方法下的SVAR分析

发布时间：2018-05-26 16:38

本文选题：财政政策 + 结构向量自回归　；参考：《财经研究》2015年06期

【摘要】：文章基于国内对财政政策冲击效应识别不充分的事实,在其所建构的结构向量自回归模型系统中,对国内外财政政策冲击的识别逐一进行了讨论,然后采用符号约束的识别方法,利用中国1997年第1季度至2012年第4季度的统计数据对中国财政政策的冲击效应进行了系统的实证分析。研究发现:在对中国经济周期冲击和货币政策冲击的反应中,名义货币供给和利率等名义变量与产出、消费等真实经济变量的关联度较弱;而财政政策冲击对名义变量的效应都不显著;政府支出对实际产出的冲击在短期内不显著,但在长期内存在负效应,原因是扩张政府支出会引起增加政府收入的适应性超调,进一步产生紧缩效应;在短期内政府支出对实际投资具有"挤出效应";政府支出与信贷余额同方向变化,这表明中国政府支出主要依赖信贷融资的事实与困境。
[Abstract]:Based on the fact that the domestic recognition of fiscal policy impact effect is not sufficient, this paper discusses the identification of fiscal policy shock at home and abroad one by one in the structural vector autoregressive model system. Then the impact effect of China's fiscal policy is systematically analyzed by using the statistical data from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2012 using the method of symbolic constraint recognition. It is found that the nominal variables such as nominal money supply and interest rate have weak correlation with real economic variables such as output and consumption in the response to the impact of China's economic cycle and monetary policy. The impact of government expenditure on real output is not significant in the short term, but there is a negative effect in the long run, because the expansion of government expenditure will lead to the adaptability of increasing government revenue overshoot, the impact of fiscal policy shocks on nominal variables is not significant in the short term, but there is a negative effect in the long run. In the short term, government expenditure has a "crowding out effect" on actual investment, and government expenditure and credit balance change in the same direction, which indicates that Chinese government expenditure mainly depends on the fact and predicament of credit financing.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学财政税务学院;西南财经大学经济与管理研究院;云南省社会科学研究院经济研究所;
【分类号】：F812

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