中国财政政策顺周期行为:财政分权与预算软约束

发布时间：2018-06-04 13:59

本文选题：顺周期 + 财政分权　；参考：《经济学动态》2015年08期

【摘要】：本文主要研究了中国财政政策顺周期行为特征,从财政分权体制和预算款约束两个角度进行分析。研究发现,财政分权体制使地方政府具有实施扩张性财政政策的动力,而预算软约束有助于其融资能力,使实施扩张性财政政策的动力变为现实。同时,实证检验发现:我国财政政策在经济衰退期采用的是反周期的扩张性调控,而在经济繁荣期,所采用的则是顺周期的财政政策,这与我们理论模型的结论基本一致。从财政支出结构看,在经济衰退期,基建支出扩张效应最大;在经济繁荣期,行政管理支出扩张效应最大。在此基础上,我们对我国财政政策调控的新模式、财政分权和其他财政改革措施提出了对策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the pro-cyclical behavior of China's fiscal policy and analyzes it from the perspectives of fiscal decentralization system and budget section constraint. It is found that fiscal decentralization system makes local governments have the power to implement expansionary fiscal policies, while soft budgetary constraints are helpful to their financing capacity and make the power of implementing expansionary fiscal policies come true. At the same time, it is found that the fiscal policy of our country adopts counter-cyclical expansionary regulation during the economic recession and pro-cyclical fiscal policy in the period of economic prosperity, which is basically consistent with the conclusion of our theoretical model. From the point of view of fiscal expenditure structure, the expansion effect of capital construction expenditure is the largest during the economic recession, and the expansion effect of administrative expenditure is the biggest in the economic boom period. On this basis, we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the new mode of fiscal policy regulation, fiscal decentralization and other fiscal reform measures in our country.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院历史研究所;中国社会科学院经济研究所博士后流动站;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“健全公共财政体系研究”(10AZD020)和国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国特色反贫困理论与实践研究”(10BJY054)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F812.0

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