安徽省政府投资效应的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-29 14:43

【摘要】：与非政府投资相比,政府投资作为国家宏观调控的一项重要手段,在促进经济增长、提高社会福利和改善生态环境等方面发挥着至关重要的作用。改革开放以来,我国市场经济取得了飞跃性的发展,但由于社会各个领域和各个地区的经济发展程度不一,其失衡情况既不可一概而论,亦不可同日而语,此时需要的是因地制宜与随机应变的能力。在这一宏观经济背景下,对于政府投资效应的理论和实证研究已经成为社会所关注的焦点。安徽省作为中部大省,在"承东启西"方面的作用日益突出。近年来,其政府投资的力度亦在不断增强,经济得以较快发展,并且人民生活质量亦得以不断提高,但其社会中所存在的问题却日益凸显,在制约安徽省社会经济发展水平进一步提高的同时,也对全省人民生活水平的改善造成了不利的影响。因此,研究安徽省政府投资的经济增长效应、社会福利效应和生态环境效应不仅具有一定的理论意义,而且具有重要的实践指导意义。基于数据的完整性与可比性,本文选取"国家预算资金SBF"这一指标来反映政府投资的变化情况,"非政府投资NGI"这一指标来反映非政府投资的变化情况,其中该指标是指安徽省固定资产投资总额中扣除国家预算资金后的余额。本文涉及的指标数据均来源于《安徽省统计年鉴》,且为消除通货膨胀因素对指标数据的影响,笔者对SBF、NGI指标进行指数化处理,方法是将其除以以2000年为基期的GDP平减指数,因此本文所研究的投资水平是实际投资水平。全文共包括六章内容,根据各章之间的关系,我们可以将其大致分为三个部分。第一部分是理论整理与分析;第二部分是关于政府投资效应的实证分析;第三部分主要是针对政府投资存在的问题所提出的政策建议。主要内容具体分析如下:一、理论分析部分,包括第一章和第二章的内容。第一章主要包括研究本文的背景及意义,国内外文献的评述,本文的研究框架、创新点以及研究展望这三部分内容。第二章是理论概述部分:在明确政府投资内涵的基础上,分别介绍了包括经济增长、社会福利与生态环境效应在内的政府投资效应的基本理论,简要分析了政府投资对于经济增长等的直接和间接影响途径,最后对本文所使用的主要方法——时间序列分析法进行了简单的理论分析。二、实证部分,包括第三章、第四章和第五章的内容,主要的研究方法是时间序列分析法。第三章主要介绍了政府投资的经济增长效应,得出的结论是:政府投资会促进经济的增长,且对非政府投资存在挤入效应。第四章主要介绍了政府投资的社会福利效应,基于数据的可得性,主要用教育水平来衡量社会福利效应,得到政府投资可以促进教育事业发展的结论。第五章主要介绍了政府投资的生态环境效应,包括政府投资对生态环境发展现状和发展潜力的影响分析,研究结果表明:政府投资对生态环境现状的影响存在着滞后性,且其能够有效的提高生态环境发展潜力。三、政策建议部分,即为第六章内容。在上述理论与实证研究的基础上,可以发现:政府投资在经济增长、社会福利和生态环境方面均起着积极的作用。针对目前安徽省不同领域所面临的不同问题,本文提出了政府投资需因地制宜的对策建议,主要表现在以下几个方面:①在投资过程中,重新审视三大产业战略地位,以第一产业发展为基础,以第二产业发展为重点,以第三产业发展为目标;②将投资的重点进行转移,加大对农村的投资,扶持农村的发展,并逐渐缩小城乡居民收入差距;③拓宽政府投资领域,在进行基础设施和民生建设的同时,注意对生态环境的保护;④在赋予政府权力的同时,对政府投资活动进行监管,使之透明化。
[Abstract]:Compared with non-governmental investment, government investment, as an important means of national macro-control, plays a vital role in promoting economic growth, improving social welfare and improving the ecological environment. Since the reform and opening up, China's market economy has made a leap development, but it is due to the various areas of society and in various regions. In this macro economic background, the theoretical and empirical research on the effect of government investment has become the focus of the society. As a major province of central China, Anhui province is in "Chengdong Kai Xi". The role of the government has been increasingly prominent. In recent years, its government investment has been strengthened, the economy has developed rapidly, and the quality of the people's life has been improved, but the problems in its society are becoming increasingly prominent, while restricting the level of social and economic development in Anhui, and the living standards of the people in the province. The improvement of the economic growth effect, the social welfare effect and the ecological environment effect of Anhui provincial government not only have a certain theoretical significance, but also have important practical guiding significance. Based on the integrity and comparability of the data, this paper selects the "national budget fund SBF" as a reflection of the government. The change of capital investment, "non-governmental investment NGI", reflects the change of non-governmental investment, in which the index refers to the balance of the total amount of investment in Anhui's fixed assets deducted from the national budget. The data involved in this paper are derived from the statistical yearbook of the Anhui Province, and to eliminate the inflation factor on the index data. The author takes the index of SBF and NGI exponentially. The method is to divide it by the GDP subtraction index based on 2000. Therefore, the investment level of this paper is the actual level of investment. The full text includes six chapters. According to the relationship between each chapter, we can roughly divide it into three parts. The first part is the theoretical arrangement. And analysis; the second part is an empirical analysis on the effect of government investment; the third part is mainly the policy suggestions for the existing problems of government investment. The main contents are as follows: first, the theoretical analysis part, including the contents of the first and second chapters. The first chapter mainly includes the background and significance of the study, the domestic and foreign language. The three parts: the second chapter is the outline of the theory: on the basis of the definition of the government investment, the basic theory of the government investment effect, including the economic growth, the social welfare and the ecological environment effect, is introduced, and the government investment is briefly analyzed. The direct and indirect ways of the economic growth, the main method used in this paper, the time series analysis method, is briefly analyzed. Two, the empirical part, including third chapters, fourth chapters and fifth chapters, the main research method is the time series analysis method. The third chapter mainly introduces the economic increase of government investment. Long effect, the conclusion is that government investment will promote economic growth and have squeezed effect on non-governmental investment. The fourth chapter mainly introduces the social welfare effect of government investment, based on the availability of data, mainly using the educational level to measure the social welfare effect, and the conclusion that the government investment can promote the development of education. The five chapter mainly introduces the ecological environment effect of government investment, including the analysis of the influence of government investment on the status and development potential of ecological environment. The results show that the impact of government investment on the ecological environment is lagging, and it can effectively improve the potential of ecological environment development. Three, the policy suggestion part, that is, Sixth On the basis of the above theoretical and empirical research, we can find that government investment plays a positive role in economic growth, social welfare and ecological environment. In view of the different problems faced by different fields in Anhui Province, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for government investment, mainly in the following parties. Face: (1) in the process of investment, we reexamine the strategic position of the three industries, take the development of the first industry as the basis, focus on the development of the second industry, and take the development of the third industry as the goal; secondly, transfer the focus of investment, increase the investment in the countryside, support the development of the rural areas, and gradually narrow the income gap between the urban and rural residents; and expand the investment of the government. In the field, we should pay attention to the protection of the ecological environment while carrying out the construction of infrastructure and the livelihood of the people; while giving the government power, the government supervision of the government investment activities is carried out to make it transparent.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.45

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