基于Z-number关键链的工程项目进度管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 16:04

本文选题：工程项目 + 项目进度计划　；参考：《桂林电子科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：工程项目的建筑功能、结构等日趋复杂,项目的独特性与差异性也越发显著,使得对工程项目进度管理的难度也越来越大。而传统的进度管理技术——关键路径法(CPM)和计划评审技术(PERT),由于自身的不足,也越发难以适应现代工程项目的实际情况。因此探寻一种适宜的进度管理方法就显得尤为重要。针对传统方法的不足,管理学大师高德拉特教授提出了一种全新的进度管理方法,即关键链法。与传统的进度管理方法相比,关键链法同时考虑了资源与时间的双重限制,并通过缓冲区的设置吸收风险因素的负面影响。此外,关键链法还将组织行为学领域的某些研究成果整合到进度管理中,同时考虑人的行为特点及管理艺术,有效避免了项目管理过程中诸如学生综合症、帕金森定律等导致的进度延误。虽然关键链在进度管理方面有不少优点,但其在工期估计、缓冲区大小计算等方面也存在着不少争议。论文在查阅国内外大量研究成果的基础上,针对工程项目,对关键链工期估计、缓冲尺寸计算等方面进行改进。首先,对比了几种传统的进度管理方法,分析了传统进度管理方法应用于工程实践中存在的问题及原因,并阐述了关键链对传统方法的改进之处。然后,引入Z-number理论表征工序工期的不确定性,在此基础上,考虑到不同项目和工序的不同特点,提出同时从工序层面及项目层面考虑风险对缓冲的影响,用工期估计值的可靠度确定工序风险,项目整体层面的资源紧张度表示项目风险,从而建立了一种综合考虑工序风险、项目风险以及资源风险的缓冲尺寸计算模型。结果表明,改进方法能降低风险因素对项目的负面影响,设置的缓冲时间不仅能有效保护项目实施,而且还能避免缓冲浪费。最后,通过案例分析验明了改进方法的可行性,并从理论和数据角度与已有缓冲模型相对比,验证了改进方法的优越性及实用性。
[Abstract]:The architectural functions and structures of engineering projects are becoming more and more complex, and the uniqueness and difference of the projects are becoming more and more significant, which makes it more and more difficult to manage the progress of engineering projects. However, the traditional schedule management technology, the critical path method (CPM) and the plan review technology (PERT), are more and more difficult to adapt to the actual situation of modern engineering projects because of their own shortcomings. Therefore, it is particularly important to explore a suitable schedule management method. In view of the shortcomings of traditional methods, Professor Gauderat, a master of management, put forward a new method of schedule management, that is, critical chain method. Compared with the traditional schedule management method, the critical chain method takes into account the dual constraints of resources and time, and absorbs the negative effects of risk factors through buffer settings. In addition, the key chain approach integrates some research results in the field of organizational behavior into progress management, taking into account the characteristics of human behavior and the art of management, thus effectively avoiding the student syndrome in the process of project management. The delay caused by Parkinson's law and so on. Although the key chain has many advantages in schedule management, there are still many controversies in the estimation of time limit and the calculation of buffer size. On the basis of consulting a large number of research results at home and abroad, the paper improves the estimation of critical chain duration and the calculation of buffer size for engineering projects. Firstly, this paper compares several traditional schedule management methods, analyzes the problems and causes of the application of the traditional schedule management method in engineering practice, and expounds the improvement of the traditional method by the key chain. Then, the Z-number theory is introduced to characterize the uncertainty of process duration. On this basis, considering the different characteristics of different projects and processes, this paper proposes to consider the impact of risk on buffering from both process level and project level at the same time. The process risk is determined by the reliability of the estimated time limit, and the project risk is represented by the resource strain on the whole level of the project. Thus, a buffer size calculation model considering the process risk, the project risk and the resource risk is established. The results show that the improved method can reduce the negative impact of risk factors on the project, and the buffer time can not only effectively protect the project implementation, but also avoid buffer waste. Finally, the feasibility of the improved method is verified by case study, and the superiority and practicability of the improved method are verified by comparing the theory and data with the existing buffer model.
【学位授予单位】：桂林电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU722

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