基于免疫复杂系统的非常规突发事件风险识别研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 04:23

本文选题：非常规突发事件 + 应急管理　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：非常规突发事件的风险识别是应急管理的核心科学问题之一,由于理论研究和实践应用中常常面临“无真可仿”的局面,使得其风险识别成为亟待解决的难题。受生物免疫系统启发,本文借鉴人工免疫模拟生物免疫系统的原理和功能,融合复杂系统、人工免疫系统理论、混沌理论以及计算模拟技术,探索基于免疫复杂系统的非常规突发事件风险识别方法。全文共分8章,共分四个部分。第一部分为绪论,介绍研究目的、研究意义、国内外研究现状以及研究的技术路线和方法。第二部分主要是全文理论与模型构建,包括第2、3、4章,首先,第2章从理论构建出发,建立了非常规突发事件与免疫复杂系统的关联映射体系。其次,第3章从底层数据结构出发,建立非常规突发事件特质基因库,作为非常规突发事件演化与风险识别的底层数据结构。最后,第4章从模型构建出发,建立了多重非常规突发事件风险识别模型,以解决面向不同问题需求和不同预警要求的突发事件识别。第三部分主要是模型模拟与仿真实验,包括第5和第6章。第5章通过计算模拟得到各类突发事件的免疫反应特性、能量差别、演化曲线差异、信息区别、危险分布等,形成识别各类突发事件的标准体系。第6章通过对火灾事件进行案例模拟,对模型进行计算实验,共同验证本文所提出模型的科学性与适用性。第四部分包括第7和第8章,主要是对策建议的提出和全文总结与研究展望。根据前文的模型及其仿真,第7章提出针对我国国情的突发事件风险识别系统改进的对策建议。第8章为全文总结与研究展望,做归纳性总结以及研究不足和未来研究的期望。本文创新点主要有以下三点:(1)提出了非常规突发事件风险识别系统与免疫复杂系统的映射框架,为突发事件应急管理体系改进提供参考从复杂系统理论、免疫学与管理学等多个学科融合的视角,探索“情景-应对”型非常规突发事件风险识别与评估方法。从复杂系统理论展开,将非常规突发事件风险识别系统与生物免疫系统进行了关联映射,结合我国突发事件应急管理体系建设实际情况,初步构建一套国家非常规突发事件风险识别系统。(2)构建了非常规突发事件特质基因库,为突发事件监测体系提供技术支持结合非常规突发事件的特性,本文从构建非常规突发事件特质基因库的必要性出发,探究了非常规突发事件特质基因库的特质基因以及基因库结构,基因库结构构建的假设,提出了基于混沌映射的基因库构建方法,结合生物免疫系统进化,分析了非常规突发事件基因库的进化过程。(3)建立了非常规突发事件风险识别模型,为突发事件预警平台提供模型支持在非常规突发事件“情景——应对”型研究方法体系下,本文融合应急管理科学、免疫学、复杂系统理论、计算机技术构建了多重非常规突发事件风险识别模型,包括非常规突发事件多Agent风险识别模型、非常规突发事件能量演化模拟、非常突发事件信息识别模型、非常规突发事件危险识别模型,通过模型是计算实验得到了阐释非常规突发事件的量化内涵。
[Abstract]:Risk identification of unconventional emergencies is one of the key scientific problems in emergency management, because often face no true imitation of the situation of theoretical research and practical application, the risk identification is the problem needed to be solved. Inspired by the biological immune system, based on the artificial immune principle and simulation function of biological immune systems. The fusion of complex system, artificial immune system theory, chaos theory and computer simulation technology, to explore the non regular emergencies risk identification method based on immune complex system. This thesis consists of 8 chapters, is divided into four parts. The first part is the introduction, introduces the research purpose, research significance, research status and technical routes and methods domestic research. The second part is to construct the theory and model, including chapter 2,3,4, firstly, the second chapter from the theoretical construction of establishment of unconventional emergencies and immune complex Association mapping system. Secondly, the third chapter from the underlying data structure of the establishment of unconventional emergencies trait gene library, as the underlying data structure of unconventional emergencies evolution and risk identification. Finally, the fourth chapter starting from the model, establish multiple unconventional emergencies risk identification model, to solve the recognition of sudden events for different needs and different warning requirements. The third part is the model simulation and simulation experiments, including the fifth and sixth chapter. The fifth chapter through the simulation by immune response characteristics, the energy difference between all kinds of unexpected events, the evolution curve difference, difference information, risk distribution, the formation of standard system identification of various types of emergencies. Sixth chapter through the case simulation of fire events, to calculate the model experiment to verify this science and the applicability of the model. The fourth part includes The seventh and eighth chapter, mainly puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions and summary and research prospect. According to the model and the simulation above, puts forward some suggestions to improve the emergency according to the condition of our country's risk identification system of seventh chapters. The eighth chapter is the summary and Prospect of research, summarizes the total node and insufficient research and expectation of future research the main innovations in this paper are the following three points: (1) put forward the mapping framework of unconventional emergencies risk identification system and immune complex systems, provide a reference from the complex system theory of emergency management system improvement, immunology and management from the perspective of multi discipline integration, explore the "scenario response" unconventional emergencies risk identification and evaluation methods. From the theory of complex system, unconventional emergencies risk identification system and the immune system of association mapping, combined with China's The actual situation of the construction of the emergency management system, construction of a national non conventional emergency risk identification system. (2) constructed the Unconventional Emergency trait gene library, provide technical support with the characteristics of non conventional emergencies for emergency monitoring system, this article from the necessity of constructing the Unconventional Emergency trait gene library based on genetic characteristics of unconventional emergencies and trait gene pool gene pool structure, gene library structure hypothesis, put forward a method to construct the gene library based on chaotic map, combined with the biological immune system evolution, analyzes the evolution of unconventional emergencies gene library. (3) establish the risk identification of non conventional emergency model, model supporting system in unconventional emergencies "scenario - response" type research method for early warning platform for emergencies, the fusion Emergency management science, immunology, complex system theory, multiple emergencies risk identification model of computer technology, including unconventional emergencies Agent risk identification model of unconventional incident energy evolution simulation, very emergency information identification model of unconventional emergency risk identification model, obtained the quantitative interpretation of the connotation of non regular emergencies through the model is calculated.

【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63

【参考文献】