基于情景分析的应急装备多层级协同布局问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 04:10

本文选题：情景分析 + 多层级协同布局　；参考：《中国管理科学》2017年10期

【摘要】：应急装备的布局决策对灾后的救援效率有巨大的影响。应急装备的储备布局大多以行政隶属结构为基础,进行资源的选址和配置,因此,资源的布局决策也具有明显的层级结构特征。本文针对现有应急装备的储备管理模式中存在的实际问题,比如未考虑储备点的应急能力差异而进行的统一均匀配置,导致资源利用效率低下,而未能满足灾害后的响应要求使得造成不必要的损失等问题。文章基于应急响应的时效性、经济性的要求和固有的层级结构,对应急装备的层级选址和配置问题进行研究,比较了现有管理模式中的布局决策方法和层级协同储备布局方法,建立了情景分析下的多目标多层级协同布局模型。最后,对云南省地震灾害情景下的电力应急装备的布局问题进行了案例分析。考虑到灾害情景中装备需求数量的不确定性,本文通过建立回归模型对地震受灾人口进行计算分析,从而估算地震情景中的装备需求数量这一关键情景要素,结合历史地震数据生成大量地震灾害情景,然后对大规模情景下的布局模型进行求解,并将协同布局决策结果与统一均匀布局的方式以及云南省现有的实际布局方式进行对比。经过分析各种决策模式的适用性,指出大规模应急响应的准备过程更应当从层级单位间的协同合作视角来洞察和研究应急装备的布局问题。
[Abstract]:The layout decision of emergency equipment has a great influence on the rescue efficiency after disaster. The reserve layout of emergency equipment is mostly based on the administrative subordinate structure, and the location and allocation of resources are carried out. Therefore, the layout decision of resources also has obvious hierarchical structure characteristics. This paper aims at the practical problems existing in the existing reserve management mode of emergency equipment, such as uniform and uniform allocation without considering the difference of emergency capability of the reserve points, which leads to the inefficient utilization of resources. However, the failure to meet the response requirements after disasters causes unnecessary losses and so on. Based on the timeliness, economic requirements and inherent hierarchical structure of emergency response, this paper studies the hierarchical location and configuration of emergency equipment, and compares the layout decision methods and hierarchical collaborative reserve layout methods in the existing management model. A multi-objective and multi-level collaborative layout model based on scenario analysis is established. Finally, a case study on the layout of power emergency equipment under earthquake disaster scenarios in Yunnan Province is given. Considering the uncertainty of equipment demand in disaster scenarios, this paper establishes a regression model to calculate and analyze the earthquake affected population, and then estimates the key factor of equipment demand in earthquake scenarios. Combined with historical seismic data, a large number of earthquake disaster scenarios are generated, and then the layout model under large-scale scenarios is solved, and the results of collaborative layout decision are compared with the uniform and uniform layout and the actual layout in Yunnan Province. Based on the analysis of the applicability of various decision-making models, it is pointed out that the preparation process of large-scale emergency response should be viewed and studied from the perspective of collaborative cooperation among different levels of units.
【作者单位】：中国科学院大学工程科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91324012,91024031)
【分类号】：D63

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