洪涝灾害应急救援物资优化配置方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 03:29

本文选题：洪涝灾害 + 应急物资　；参考：《沈阳大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,全球洪涝灾害频发,对灾区人民的生命安全造成了严重的威胁。应急物资作为保障人们生命的重要资源,及时、合理、公平的资源优化配置对于保障人民生命安全、提高救灾效率具有重要的实践意义,因此得到了救灾机构的普遍重视。本文以洪涝灾害为研究背景,综合考虑灾区应急救援物资配置中的诸多影响因素,建立了应急救灾物资需求预测、物资筹措以及物资分配等方法。主要研究工作如下:(1)对应急物资进行了需求预测。搜集了近年来我国洪涝灾害的相关案例,选取了其中比较有代表性的特征数据作为样本数据。选用径向基神经网络对特征数据进行训练,利用测试样本数据对需求预测模型进行了验证,并比较分析了径向基神经网络与BP神经网络预测结果,验证了所提出方法的有效性。建立了物资需求估算公式,通过计算可以间接预测洪涝灾害发生后短时间内不同类应急物资的需求量。(2)基于物资需求预测结果,建立了不同需求状况下的应急物资筹措方法。灾害发生时,动用应急储备物资和向企业征用物资等筹措方式难以满足突发情景下灾区的应急物资需求。本文以各个企业的生产水平、生产物资的成本以及各企业到达受灾点的时间为主要考虑因素,以时间及成本最小化为目标建立了应急物资筹措模型,并对模型给予了求解。(3)对传统的公平—效率模型进行了改进。考虑到应急物资运输时间、灾区受灾严重程度不同以及灾区对于不同物资的需求等级不同等因素,分别建立了针对配送时间的效用损失模型,针对不同地区受灾严重程度和对物资的需求等级的效率模型,针对物资分配合理性的公平性模型。根据配送时间、物资满足率、分配公平性的优先考虑顺序,采用分层序列法,通过变邻域蚁群算法实现了应急物资分配的多目标优化的求解。针对文中所建立的模型和方法,分别通过实例分析验证了其可行性和合理性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the flood disaster around the world has caused a serious threat to the lives of the people in the disaster area. As an important resource to protect people's lives, emergency materials have important practical significance in ensuring the safety of people's lives and improving the efficiency of disaster relief because of the timely, reasonable and fair allocation of resources. This paper takes flood disaster as the research background, synthetically considers many influence factors in the allocation of emergency relief materials in the disaster area, and sets up the methods of forecasting the demand for emergency relief materials, raising the materials and distributing the materials and so on. The main research work is as follows: 1) forecasting the demand for emergency supplies. The relevant cases of flood and waterlogging disasters in China in recent years are collected and the representative characteristic data are selected as sample data. The radial basis function neural network is used to train the characteristic data, and the test sample data is used to verify the demand forecasting model. The results of radial basis function neural network and BP neural network are compared and analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The formula of material demand estimation is established, and the demand of different kinds of emergency materials in a short period of time after flood disaster can be indirectly predicted by calculation. Based on the forecasting results of material demand, the method of emergency material raising under different demand conditions is established. When the disaster occurs, it is difficult to meet the emergency material demand in the disaster area by using emergency reserve materials and requisition materials from enterprises. This paper takes the production level of each enterprise, the cost of production materials and the time of each enterprise to reach the disaster spot as the main consideration factors, taking the time and cost minimization as the goal to establish the emergency material financing model. The model is solved. (3) the traditional fair-efficiency model is improved. Considering the time of transportation of emergency materials, the different severity of disaster and the different factors of demand level for different materials in disaster areas, the utility loss models for distribution time are established respectively. According to the efficiency model of disaster severity and material demand level in different areas, and the fairness model of material distribution rationality. According to the priority order of distribution time, material satisfaction rate and distribution fairness, the multi-objective optimization solution of emergency material allocation is realized by variable neighborhood ant colony algorithm using hierarchical sequence method. The feasibility and rationality of the model and method are verified by examples.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D632.5

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