基于“情景—应对”的非常规突发事件应急响应救援决策研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 21:57

本文选题：非常规突发事件 + 应急救援　；参考：《山西财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：非常规突发事件多指突然发生、无法预知却对百姓生活造成灾害性影响的事件,这些影响既包括人员伤亡也包括财产损失,为保证救援的有效性,需及时做出应急响应风险决策并确定合理的救援路径,如何制定一整套完整的应急管理救援系统是当前急需解决的课题。近年来,我国对于非常规突发事件的研究已经有了长足的进步,许多学者的研究中均建立了针对灾害事件某一方面的应急决策系统,但其中仍存在许多需要改进的地方,例如,面对应急消息传递效率的滞后以及非常规突发事件的突发性,曾经能够较好解决灾害事故的“预测-应对”决策模式已无法满足现实需求,此外,目前的应急决策仍未考虑决策者主观性的问题,以及应急救援的正确判断和救援路径的选择问题仍是应急救援的重要环节,本文将应急救援的响应和路径优化结合起来分析,制定了一整套完整的应急响应救援决策系统,帮助决策者选择应急救援决策方案,保证受灾人群在最佳救援时间内得到及时救治并将救援物资及时运输到事故发生地。本文将整个应急响应救援决策系统分为应急响应风险决策和应急救援路径优化决策两个部分。在应急响应风险决策部分,首先进行应急响应分析还原事故现场推演事故发展态势,然后再进行风险决策。在应急响应分析部分,采用“情景-应对”应急响应模型重现事故情景并进行态势推演推演出符合事故发展的事故未来情景。在情景确定基础后,决策者通常面对不止一个备选风险决策方案,此时应用前景理论在分析了决策者的心理感知后,帮助决策者选择符合其心理预期的决策方案。在应急救援路径优化决策部分,为保证救援的有效性,本章研究了基于实时/时变的复杂道路状况下,非常规突发事件发生后多救援点同时输送救援物资的路径优化问题,采用改进遗传学算法实现动态路径调整达到求解最短路的目的,解决了应急救援物资路径动态优化的问题,为救援团队提供准确、及时、可视化的救援方案,提高救援效率。本文立足决策领域的核心课题——应急决策,通过制定一整套更加完善的应急响应救援决策体系帮助决策者选择更符合心理预期的决策方案,提高了救援的有效性,为增强救援人员应对非常规突发事件的能力提供了新思路及有力的理论支持和破解方法,具有一定的实践价值。
[Abstract]:Unconventional emergencies often refer to events that occur suddenly, unpredictably, but have a disastrous impact on people's lives. These effects include both casualties and property losses. In order to ensure the effectiveness of the rescue, It is necessary to make the emergency response risk decision and determine the reasonable rescue path in time. How to establish a complete set of emergency management and rescue system is an urgent task. In recent years, the research on unconventional emergencies in China has made great progress. Many scholars have established emergency decision systems for one aspect of disaster events, but there are still many areas for improvement, such as, In the face of the lag of emergency message transmission efficiency and the sudden occurrence of unconventional emergencies, it has been able to solve the problem of "prediction-response" decision-making model which can not meet the actual needs. At present, the subjective problem of decision makers is not considered in emergency decision making, and the correct judgment of emergency rescue and the choice of rescue path are still important links of emergency rescue. This paper combines the response of emergency rescue with the path optimization analysis. A complete set of emergency response and rescue decision system is developed to help the decision makers to choose the emergency and rescue decision plan to ensure that the disaster victims get timely treatment in the best time and the relief materials are transported to the accident place in time. In this paper, the whole emergency response and rescue decision-making system is divided into two parts: emergency response risk decision and emergency rescue path optimization decision. In the part of emergency response risk decision, the emergency response analysis is carried out first, and then the development trend of the accident is deduced, and then the risk decision is made. In the part of emergency response analysis, the "situation-response" emergency response model is used to reproduce the accident scenario and extrapolate the future situation of the accident according with the development of the accident. The decision makers usually face more than one alternative risk decision plan after the situation is determined. In this case, the prospect theory is used to analyze the psychological perception of the decision maker, and then help the decision maker to choose the decision plan that accords with his psychological expectation. In the part of emergency rescue path optimization decision, in order to ensure the effectiveness of rescue, this chapter studies the path optimization problem of multi-rescue points delivering rescue materials simultaneously after unconventional emergencies occur under the complex road condition based on real-time / time-varying. The improved genetic algorithm is used to realize the dynamic path adjustment to solve the shortest path, to solve the problem of dynamic optimization of emergency relief material path, to provide the rescue team with accurate, timely and visual rescue scheme, and to improve the rescue efficiency. Based on the core topic in the decision-making field, emergency decision, this paper makes a set of more perfect emergency response and rescue decision system to help the decision makers to choose a more psychological expected decision plan, and improves the effectiveness of rescue. It provides a new way of thinking and powerful theoretical support and crack method for enhancing the ability of rescuers to deal with unconventional emergencies, and it has certain practical value.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D63

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