信息外部表征对政府危机决策行为的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-01 18:57

本文选题：信息表征 + 决策行为　；参考：《电子科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：人类社会在不断的发展,每天都在发生新的变化,但是随着快速的发展,人类也逐渐面临各类日益频繁的危机,这些危机对人类的生命和财产安全造成了严重的威胁。近几年公共危机事件在我国越加的频繁发生,从2003年广州非典疫情,到2005年吉林化工厂爆炸导致的松花江严重水污染事件,再到2008年的南方雪灾及汶川大地震等天灾或人为的危机事件给我国造成了难以弥补的损失,而在各种公共危机事件中,政府的决策对于危机事态的发展起着举足轻重的作用。公共危机在事发生前一般是没有任何的预兆,政府在处治应对方面也没有现成标准合适的预案可以遵照,在这过程中人们在于时间竞争,与生命赛跑,政府决策者须在尽可能短的时间内做出最有效的决策。然而每个决策者作为一个普通人,在做决策的整个过程中常常会受到多方面因素的影响,如时间压力带来的焦虑和紧迫感、信息的来源真假难辨且信息量少、广大媒体和人民的密切关注、决策者自身的认知能力等多种因素都会影响决策者的决策行为,从而很难在如此复杂的环境下做出最有效的决策。本文在框架效应的基础上对探讨危机信息的外部表征对政府决策行为的影响,并将时间作为整个研究的控制变量,并结合前景理论和有限理性理论运用定性和定量相结合的方式进行研究分析,本文研究思路设计为:(1)有时间压力*框架效应(风险选择框架、属性框架、目标框架)*信息表征(文字,图像)*危机决策问题;(2)无时间压力*框架效应(风险选择框架、属性框架、目标框架)*信息表征(文字,图像)*危机决策问题。调查结果显示,不管是有时间压力还是没有时间压力,当决策信息以文字表述时,决策结果都出现框架效应,但是当决策信息以图片的方式呈现时,在无时间压力下时决策者的决策结果均没有出现框架效应的影响,而在有时间压力下,决策者的决策结果表现出轻微的框架效应。由此可以得到决策者的决策行为不仅受决策时间的影响,还受决策信息的表现形式以的影响。
[Abstract]:With the development of human society, new changes take place every day. However, with the rapid development, human beings are faced with various kinds of increasingly frequent crises, which pose a serious threat to the safety of human life and property. In recent years, more and more public crisis events have occurred in China. From the SARS epidemic in Guangzhou in 2003 to the serious water pollution incident in Songhua River caused by the explosion of Jilin Chemical Plant in 2005, In 2008, the snow disaster in the south and Wenchuan earthquake and other natural disasters or man-made crisis events caused irreparable losses to our country, and in all kinds of public crisis events, the government decision-making plays an important role in the development of the crisis situation. Public crises usually have no warning before they happen, and there is no ready-made standard for the government to follow in dealing with them. In the process, people compete in time and race against life. Government decision makers must make the most effective decisions in the shortest possible time. However, every decision maker, as an ordinary person, is often affected by a variety of factors in the whole process of making decisions, such as anxiety and urgency brought by time pressure, the source of information is hard to identify and the amount of information is small. The media and people pay close attention to it, and many factors, such as the cognitive ability of the decision makers themselves, will affect the decision-making behavior of the decision makers, so it is difficult to make the most effective decisions in such a complex environment. Based on the frame effect, this paper discusses the influence of the external representation of the crisis information on the decision-making behavior of the government, and takes the time as the control variable of the whole study. Combined with prospect theory and finite rationality theory, this paper uses qualitative and quantitative methods to study and analysis. The research ideas are as follows: (1) there is time pressure * frame effect (risk selection framework, attribute framework). Target framework) * information representation (text, image) * crisis decision problem; (2) no time pressure * frame effect (risk selection framework, attribute framework, target frame) * information representation (text, image) * crisis decision problem. The results showed that, whether there was time pressure or no time pressure, when the decision information was expressed in words, the decision result had a frame effect, but when the decision information was presented as a picture, When there is no time pressure, the decision result of the decision maker has no influence of frame effect, but under the time pressure, the decision result of the decision maker shows a slight frame effect. It can be concluded that the decision making behavior is not only influenced by the decision time, but also by the form of decision information.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63

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